GBP rally could help a lot of expats.

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This topic contains 30 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 7 years, 6 months ago.

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  • #54997
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    Anonymous
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    If the experts are correct, we can see Euro/Gbp heading back towards 1.30. This will be of great asistance to many expats.
    The experts are not always right though.

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahuizoIPC7zA&refer=home

  • #92204
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Then wait for the chorus of complaints from those people whose Spanish property is worth 20% less than it is now.

  • #92205
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    Anonymous
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    Only a problem if they are looking to sell and repatriate funds back to UK. I would guess the exodus from Spain back t UK has been brought on mainly by the weak exchange rate. This would solve a lot of problems for GBP earners.

  • #92206
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    Anonymous
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    @aidan wrote:

    If the experts are correct, we can see Euro/Gbp heading back towards 1.30. This will be of great asistance to many expats.
    The experts are not always right though.

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahuizoIPC7zA&refer=home

    £ struggles around 1.12-1.13 Euros. The road to 1.30 is long…

  • #92208
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    For those unfortunate people who have bought in the Eurozone whilst Sterling is low, if they decide living abroad is not for them, they will have a double whammy when Sterling strengthens again should they try and re-sell abroad.

  • #92209
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    Anonymous
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    @angie wrote:

    For those unfortunate people who have bought in the Eurozone whilst Sterling is low, if they decide living abroad is not for them, they will have a double whammy when Sterling strengthens again should they try and re-sell abroad.

    Well, there are so many, many risks when buying abroad. The currency exchange is only one of them…

  • #92218
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    Anonymous
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    @flosmichael wrote:

    @angie wrote:
    For those unfortunate people who have bought in the Eurozone whilst Sterling is low, if they decide living abroad is not for them, they will have a double whammy when Sterling strengthens again should they try and re-sell abroad.

    Well, there are so many, many risks when buying abroad. The currency exchange is only one of them…

    That is why I bought in the UK Lake District

  • #92231
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    Anonymous
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    @kpw4v wrote:

    @flosmichael wrote:
    @angie wrote:
    For those unfortunate people who have bought in the Eurozone whilst Sterling is low, if they decide living abroad is not for them, they will have a double whammy when Sterling strengthens again should they try and re-sell abroad.

    Well, there are so many, many risks when buying abroad. The currency exchange is only one of them…

    That is why I bought in the UK Lake District

    You will really be enjoying the weather just now then 😀

  • #92573
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    Anonymous
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    See the pound is rising against the Euro and looking better all of the time.

    Ex Pats must be feeling less trapped in Spain
    It will help many with mortgages,lower interest rates hopefully some will be able to hold out till things improve.
    Less desperate to sell ?
    Good news for those looking to buy if they feel that prices in some areas are not going to drop through the floor.
    There will be downsides and no doubt this will be explained here somewhere.
    Seems the Banks and the legal system abuse of the law may just work for them in the end.

  • #92575
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    Anonymous
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    @Observer wrote:

    See the pound is rising against the Euro and looking better all of the time.

    Ex Pats must be feeling less trapped in Spain
    It will help many with mortgages,lower interest rates hopefully some will be able to hold out till things improve.
    Less desperate to sell ?
    Good news for those looking to buy if they feel that prices in some areas are not going to drop through the floor.
    There will be downsides and no doubt this will be explained here somewhere.
    Seems the Banks and the legal system abuse of the law may just work for them in the end.

    The Pound can increase today and decrease tommorow… Unless it jumps high or falls abruptly, it should not make a big difference in the process of buying and selling.

    Mark pointed out that 484 properties sold in all Spain the first trimester to non-residents, out of which maybe 100-150 could be British. This is so insignificant that one can safely say that there are almost none UK buyers in Spain at the moment. I am not saying that the interest is not there…

  • #92576
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    Anonymous
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    Hello Flosmicheal
    Well if you were looking at a 300,000 Euro property 3 months ago when the Euro/Pound were level and now you have 1.17 I feel that this may make a difference.
    At 1.20 it would make a considerable difference indeed which I am sure you may agree with.
    Bargain hunters are there and they will bag the best deals in the right location. In the right locations the bargains may soon be far fewer in a shortish period.
    Whats being recorded as sales prices and what in reality is the actual sale price will make a mockery of figures that people rely on to follow the market and deciding to buy or not.
    Where anyone jumps in is a very difficult one to call.
    Could be to wait and see if this is an exchange rate trend and have say I do feel that the exchange rate may be a key factor to thousands that are waiting to move out of the U.K with the pent-up demand spanning a few years now.

  • #92577
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    Anonymous
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    as flosmichael says, there are many things about buying in Spain more worrying than the exchange rate. Huge damage has been done to Spains reputation as a place to buy, and most people I speak to wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole at the moment. Corruption, land grab, slow and poor laws, rough justice, court cases stretching out years, huge areas ruined, many half finished, half lived in developments, rising cost of living/taxes etc, falling property prices, and to top it all a government doing very little to change things that have done and still are doing so much damage.

    Obviously some will ignore all the above and find good reason to buy still for lifestyle reasons and that’s fair enough, but many will be keeping an eye on things I think and perhaps look seriously at buying in a year or two…..or three??

  • #92578
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    Anonymous
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    From the perspective of a buyer in the UK (I’m searching for a property right now) I think things are looking up. We have some stabilisation, at least, in the UK housing market, the Pound/Euro situation is improving and overall, the UK economy seems ahead of the curve vs. the Euro Zone. Unfortunately, from the Spanish perspective, I think they have some serious problems: over-supply in the market, worse unemployment than the UK due to over concentration on construction, a rather ‘dodgy’ reputation due to certain sharp practices and injustices, and almost certainly further to fall before recovery comes. I do believe it will come, however. Medium-long term it is a good bet. In the short term, I think it will be quite volatile.

    For sellers in Spain, I can understand it must be very difficult. A lot will depend on the resources available to ride out this very rough time. If you are over-extended, with a lot of debt, then times are tough indeed. Been there myself once, in the distant past, so believe me – I know.

    Andy

  • #92579
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    Anonymous
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    I agree very much with what Goodstich44 says (above). The issues with land grabs, corruption, and a poor justice system is not exactly generating a good perception of Spain as a safe place to invest. You really have to watch your back, that is for sure. There’s no doubt that such publicity will put off many.

    Then again, I have owned property in Morocco (not easy – but was an excellent long-term investment), and my wife’s family own various property in Florida – not good at all right now!

    So – it’s all a bit of gamble at the end of the day. As with stocks and shares – best not to play unless you can really afford to lose.

    Andy

  • #92581
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    Anonymous
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    There is now doubt that what has been posted by Goodstich 44 is very true and the corruption and the legal system indeed have to clear their act up.
    Reality is that some areas can not come clean even if they wanted to. Problems to deep and feel that for years they will end up no go zones. Who will ensure that ? The E.As as moving property in those areas are going to be almost impossible to get a sale. They wont even list them and if they do then it will be 20 to 30 % commission.
    The councils that are at the forefront of grabbing that by the neck will be the place to buy.
    Location, strict building control by councils will be way out in front while other areas that haven’t even touched the surface will remain half empty and then derelict sites that may in the end have to be demolished.
    Those areas the have massive developments without infrastructure to support it may be good areas to avoid.
    Those waiting 2 to 3 years will always have the option to buy one of these developments.
    The ones that have made the money buying right will probably win as that’s the type of people they are. They can almost smell when the time is right.
    One downturn for Ex Pats desperate to sell in Euros and convert to pounds may now not be able to reduce the prices as before.
    More problems than exchange rates ? Tell that to the new buyer if the rates get near 1.50
    Nothing really changes lets hope and pray that these new buyers will at least take some advice from those that have been so hurt and that’s to get real tried and tested legal advice.
    Another factor is the gold rush is over for Spain and hopefully the corrupt play their sick business practices in more vulnerable new emerging property markets. Think some of these Countries will make Spain look pale in the big picture. Some wont agree and those that have been destroyed have every right not to.

    As you say 66d35 . Its a gamble.Lifes a gamble and all we can do is look gain as much information as one can then decide themselves when it time to play.

  • #92583
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    Anonymous
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    The pound will go back to 1.45 and stick.

    The UK will then ditch the pound for the Euro, as a condition for loans from the IMF.

  • #92585
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    Anonymous
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    @maximus wrote:

    The pound will go back to 1.45 and stick.

    The UK will then ditch the pound for the Euro, as a condition for loans from the IMF.

    Well maximus if you are so sure no doubt you are looking forward to making a fortune on the FX markets. 😀 Have to say I disagree fundamentally.

    At circa 1.50 the pound was grossly overvalued against the euro. It made the UK (and its products) way too expensive for those in the euro zone. At 1.10 or below thngs were reversed and, for those of us who live on the mainland, the UK was very cheap. Its ´natural´ rate (in terms of spending power) is around 1.30.

    The spectre at the feast is inflation. The ECB has not (yet) gone in for quantitive easing (a.k.a. printing money). My guess is that it won´t. If the UK sees inflation jumping up to double figures, which it well may, and the euro zone manages to keep a lid on it we could even see parity.

    Scare stories in the Daily Mail aside there is NO WAY that the UK will join the Euro in the short to medium term (at least 10 years). The most pro-euro PM the country has ever had, or is likely to, with two landslide election victories under his belt, couldn´t push entry past his chancellor and colleagues. It would be political suicide for a government of whatever party to attempt to do so.

  • #92586
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    Anonymous
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    @brianc_li wrote:

    ….. there is NO WAY that the UK will join the Euro in the short to medium term (at least 10 years).

    …….It would be political suicide for a government of whatever party to attempt to do so.

    Brian – Political suicide? It doesn’t exist anymore after things like lying re. manifesto promises for a Lisbon Treaty referendum, MP’s expenses etc.

    Even Lib Dem MP Mark Oaten (he of two-rent-boys fame) was on Sky News the other day, calmly reviewing the daily papers for all our benefit.

    As far as joining the Euro is concerned, haven’t you read the latest statement from our new political dictator (sorry…..’reformer’):
    Baron Mandelson of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham, Lord President of the Council, First Secretary of State, and Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5506385/Britain-will-obviously-join-euro-says-Mandelson.html

    Keep up chum! 😉
    .

  • #92588
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    Anonymous
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    @brianc_li wrote:

    At circa 1.50 the pound was grossly overvalued against the euro. It made the UK (and its products) way too expensive for those in the euro zone. At 1.10 or below thngs were reversed and, for those of us who live on the mainland, the UK was very cheap. Its ´natural´ rate (in terms of spending power) is around 1.30.

    The spectre at the feast is inflation. The ECB has not (yet) gone in for quantitive easing (a.k.a. printing money). My guess is that it won´t. If the UK sees inflation jumping up to double figures, which it well may, and the euro zone manages to keep a lid on it we could even see parity.

    Inflation means higher interest rates which leads to stronger currency. If UK sees bigger inflation will determine a jump in the interest rate and the Pound will go higher versus Euro.

    I agree that the natural rate is around 1.30 but as it went to 1.02, it can go again to 1.5 (for a couple of weeks) and then fall again to 1.10.

    it is just the matter of how thrashed UK economy is as compared to EU or USA economies…

  • #92589
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    Anonymous
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    Charlie,

    I should have said “Scare stories in the Daily Mail and Telegraph aside.” 😀

    If arguably our most pro-european PM ever, with two landslide election victories under his belt, couldn´t push entry past his chancellor and colleagues who else is going to?

    In the unlikely event that Brown wins the next election his majority would be to slim to take such a step even if he wanted to. Given the decades long rifts in the Conservative party over Europe I doubt they´d even try.

    Should the Lib-Dems get into power they might indeed try. We all know however that such an event is as likely as an increase in the price of Spanish property this side of the next general election.

    Whatever Mandy or whoever says euro entry is not on the table for the UK for a long time.

  • #92592
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    Anonymous
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    @brianc_li wrote:

    Charlie,

    I should have said “Scare stories in the Daily Mail and Telegraph aside.”

    Brian – Mandy said this when questioned during an interview in Berlin, honest! 🙂
    Actually, I find him scary even when he doesn’t open his mouth……

    Returning to topic, Euro currently showing resistence at 85p level, or 1.17 for those who like it the other way round.

  • #92593
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well lets see how well the Euro zone works in supporting its members if the European Courts up hold a ruling that Spanish Banks have to account and pay on all legally binding Bank Guarantees.(1 highlighted this week by Charlie may just be a start)
    Lets see the support for the Euro when the media get hold of the European M.Ps expenses.
    If the exchange rate starts to go anywhere near those quoted with interests at these levels then in some areas it may become a very good market indeed and in particular for the early bird.
    As always these guys play with figures based on the past and how to line their own pockets.
    Lets face it. The ones on the street didn’t need to be told we were in a recession months after anyone with half a brain were well aware the sh-t had hit the pan.

  • #92594
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    If the pound reaches 1.30 would it really make much difference to the spanish property market 😕 The market was in dire straits long before the weakening pound, the credit crunch, recession etc. Sterlings fall just put the final nail in.

  • #92595
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Katy,

    Indeed, any difference would be marginal to the market. Whilst UK based owners/potential buyers make up a significant section of those on this forum they have a minimal impact on the overall Spanish market. Further, for UK based potential purchasers there are many more aspects than exchange rates to be taken into account. Things such as the equity (if any) in their own property, employment prospects, salaries, etc.

    I do believe the point that aidan (the OP) was making was a valid one in that the rising pound will help those based in Spain who derive their income in sterling. Some may now not be as desperate to leave.

  • #92602
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    As far as joining the Euro is concerned, haven’t you read the latest statement from our new political dictator (sorry…..’reformer’):
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5506385/Britain-will-obviously-join-euro-says-Mandelson.html
    .

    Am going to get shot for this, I just know it, but I can’t stop myself…

    I actually like Mandelson.

    I find that he is a real get it done kind of guy.

    He was amazing in Europe.

    He is doing a helluva job now, even giving Brown and Labour both a chance at the next election, don’t forget the Tories need what an almost 6% swing by next year, and a lot can happen in a year.

    And please help me cos am going to get shot for this too..

    I think he is right about the Euro, at some point we have to go in, and we will go in, and it will work for us.

    Now I really feel I am out there shivering in the cold with no clothes… not a pretty sight!

    But just can’t help it, I think he might just be the best Prime Minister we never had, but I bet he makes it to Foreign Secretary.

    Am hopping about now to see if I can dodge the flak, or does anyone else rate him?

  • #92604
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m not saying a word Chris …

  • #92605
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    I’m not saying a word Chris …

    You didn’t have to.. I don’t really look at the emoticons normally, but saw them this time and am sitting here laughing my head off, that was very funny!

  • #92606
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    Anonymous
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    Hi Chris – I do agree with you!

    He is a charismatic character with a good deal of prescence in amongst what appears to be a load of deadbeats, whingers/moaners and “non personalities”.

    Haven’t we learned anything from the Blair years – at least he (Blair) had charisma and prescence if not much else!! We should have gone into the Euro years ago!

  • #92608
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    Inez
    Participant

    Charlie – were on earth did yuo get those. Theyre fab! 😆

  • #92609
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    My original post was not about property prices at all, just that those struggling and thinking of returning to UK may change their minds if GBP was to return to what I think is more realistic levels 1.30 ish.

    There may be a knock on effect of making property more attractive to the UK buyer if we get back up there.

    I am sure the vast majority of people that bought in Spain did so not as a money making venture but as a lifestyle choice. The exchange rate is obviously important to those that live there and take their income in GBP.
    Of course anyone selling in Spain to convert back to GBP will hope the Euro remains strong.

  • #92611
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    Anonymous
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    Of course anyone selling in Spain to convert back to GBP will hope the Euro remains strong.

    That also applies to the fortunate few who have won court cases against the banks/developers….or Lawyers! 😉

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