Four Houses Near Gib – Thoughts / Comments pls

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This topic contains 107 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 5 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #56134
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant
  • #103219
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    In today’s market 75K each!

  • #103052
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    In today’s market 75K each!

  • #103227
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Shall I offer them 180k for the second one down? That’s 50% of the original advertised price. Worth a shot?

  • #103056
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Shall I offer them 180k for the second one down? That’s 50% of the original advertised price. Worth a shot?

  • #103229
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Wouldn’t if I were you they will probably accept. All of ’em are well overpriced. San Roque is hardly an exclusive or even desirable place. However all tastes are different.

  • #103057
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Wouldn’t if I were you they will probably accept. All of ’em are well overpriced. San Roque is hardly an exclusive or even desirable place. However all tastes are different.

  • #103231
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Wouldn’t if I were you they will probably accept. All of ’em are well overpriced. San Roque is hardly an exclusive or even desirable place. However all tastes are different.

    I wonder about your motivations on this site sometimes Logan, 75k each?

    Your other posts and motivation comes under further scrutiny with comments like this.

    Adiep, I wish you luck at 50% off these prices, I can’t see it happening.

  • #103058
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Wouldn’t if I were you they will probably accept. All of ’em are well overpriced. San Roque is hardly an exclusive or even desirable place. However all tastes are different.

    I wonder about your motivations on this site sometimes Logan, 75k each?

    Your other posts and motivation comes under further scrutiny with comments like this.

    Adiep, I wish you luck at 50% off these prices, I can’t see it happening.

  • #103239
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Point is Chris I wouldn’t have the slightest interest to buy them unless……

  • #103062
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Point is Chris I wouldn’t have the slightest interest to buy them unless……

  • #103241
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    It’s across the road from Soto by the looks of it, however, were not talking about a tourist Mecca, rather the commuting distance to Gib (where decent salaries can be had) will keep the prices in this area up.

    If these places get as low as 75k, then Id be more likely to have left Spain. The place would be in ruin by that point and I suspect dangerous πŸ™‚

    At the end of the day, nothing is selling right now, so the courageous offers might stand a chance.

  • #103063
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    It’s across the road from Soto by the looks of it, however, were not talking about a tourist Mecca, rather the commuting distance to Gib (where decent salaries can be had) will keep the prices in this area up.

    If these places get as low as 75k, then Id be more likely to have left Spain. The place would be in ruin by that point and I suspect dangerous πŸ™‚

    At the end of the day, nothing is selling right now, so the courageous offers might stand a chance.

  • #103251
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    That’s an interesting point Adiep, employment in Gibraltar. Are salaries higher and do good employment prospects exist. That would certainly have some positive influence on the local property market. How is the border crossing these days?
    I still think even given these facts those asking prices are much to high.

  • #103068
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    That’s an interesting point Adiep, employment in Gibraltar. Are salaries higher and do good employment prospects exist. That would certainly have some positive influence on the local property market. How is the border crossing these days?
    I still think even given these facts those asking prices are much to high.

  • #103253
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Salaries in Gib for the occupations where demand exists (technology, finance, marketing) are equivalent to London. The salaries for anything else are higher than Spain. Gib has a property bubble that’s been fueled by tax benefits and ‘high net worth individuals’, causing towns like La Linea (with its terrible housing stock) to be priced like a major city.

    Its possible to live in Spain and maintain a career via Gib. I know people who commute from as far away as marbella each day.

    Border isnt a problem so long as you park in Spain and then get the bus/taxi. Many leave the car in La Linea and then use a moped to get to work in Gib.

    So the housing market around here is extremely out of sync with the reality in much of Spain.

  • #103069
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Salaries in Gib for the occupations where demand exists (technology, finance, marketing) are equivalent to London. The salaries for anything else are higher than Spain. Gib has a property bubble that’s been fueled by tax benefits and ‘high net worth individuals’, causing towns like La Linea (with its terrible housing stock) to be priced like a major city.

    Its possible to live in Spain and maintain a career via Gib. I know people who commute from as far away as marbella each day.

    Border isnt a problem so long as you park in Spain and then get the bus/taxi. Many leave the car in La Linea and then use a moped to get to work in Gib.

    So the housing market around here is extremely out of sync with the reality in much of Spain.

  • #103255
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    OK that’s the explanation, interesting facts thanks.

  • #103070
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    OK that’s the explanation, interesting facts thanks.

  • #103257
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The Gib effect also fuels demand for Sotogrande.

  • #103071
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The Gib effect also fuels demand for Sotogrande.

  • #103265
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Many of the staff in Morissons supermarket live in Sotogrande to Estepona loop. Some work in M&S too. Only downside is the salaries are in sterling which takes away some of the advantage with the low exchange rate.

  • #103075
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Many of the staff in Morissons supermarket live in Sotogrande to Estepona loop. Some work in M&S too. Only downside is the salaries are in sterling which takes away some of the advantage with the low exchange rate.

  • #103267
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    One of the problems of watching the Spanish market is how local effects such as Gibraltar skew values. As Mark has often rightly said, Spain is a collection of many markets and there are huge differences from region to region depending on local conditions.
    However that said the current national and international economic conditions are causing a continued national downturn across the board.
    Property prices such as these posted by Adeip probably belong to another time when the market was in it’s normal state.

  • #103076
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    One of the problems of watching the Spanish market is how local effects such as Gibraltar skew values. As Mark has often rightly said, Spain is a collection of many markets and there are huge differences from region to region depending on local conditions.
    However that said the current national and international economic conditions are causing a continued national downturn across the board.
    Property prices such as these posted by Adeip probably belong to another time when the market was in it’s normal state.

  • #103297
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’d ask to see a copy of the deeds, so you can what was paid the last time (give or take a bit of black stuff)and then base your offer on that.

  • #103097
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’d ask to see a copy of the deeds, so you can what was paid the last time (give or take a bit of black stuff)and then base your offer on that.

  • #103300
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.
    I have a friend in Gib who is looking to buy in Spain near to the border and she has the attitute that every owner must be desperate and she is making stupid offers on houses that are never accepted. She has now missed out on 3 properties that she really liked but have been sold this year. She is slowly coming around to the idea that properties are selling.
    Those properties and those prices do not look particuaraly exciting and on the second one I would be offering 200k and see where that gets you.
    Logan – if you can negotiate prices of 75k on any of them I will buy them off you for 100k.

  • #103100
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.
    I have a friend in Gib who is looking to buy in Spain near to the border and she has the attitute that every owner must be desperate and she is making stupid offers on houses that are never accepted. She has now missed out on 3 properties that she really liked but have been sold this year. She is slowly coming around to the idea that properties are selling.
    Those properties and those prices do not look particuaraly exciting and on the second one I would be offering 200k and see where that gets you.
    Logan – if you can negotiate prices of 75k on any of them I will buy them off you for 100k.

  • #103301
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Methinks you and Chris McCarthy missed my ironic sense of humour as a comment on the current state of the market. πŸ™‚ The point being that nobody knows what any property is really worth at the moment. Not even Agents or sellers.
    A person will sell if they need to at a price acceptable to them under these current difficult economic conditions. It’s all case by case basis or property by property. It’s impossible to estimate value it depends entirely on the sellers/buyers personal position.
    I don’t blame your friend for trying to secure a deal. They should be determined and only buy on their own terms. In fact as I have recommended on other threads they shouldn’t actually buy at all until economic conditions in Spain start to change.

  • #103101
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Methinks you and Chris McCarthy missed my ironic sense of humour as a comment on the current state of the market. πŸ™‚ The point being that nobody knows what any property is really worth at the moment. Not even Agents or sellers.
    A person will sell if they need to at a price acceptable to them under these current difficult economic conditions. It’s all case by case basis or property by property. It’s impossible to estimate value it depends entirely on the sellers/buyers personal position.
    I don’t blame your friend for trying to secure a deal. They should be determined and only buy on their own terms. In fact as I have recommended on other threads they shouldn’t actually buy at all until economic conditions in Spain start to change.

  • #103304
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @man in Marbella wrote:
    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Methinks you and Chris McCarthy missed my ironic sense of humour as a comment on the current state of the market. πŸ™‚ The point being that nobody knows what any property is really worth at the moment. Not even Agents or sellers.
    A person will sell if they need to at a price acceptable to them under these current difficult economic conditions. It’s all case by case basis or property by property. It’s impossible to estimate value it depends entirely on the sellers/buyers personal position.
    I don’t blame your friend for trying to secure a deal. They should be determined and only buy on their own terms. In fact as I have recommended on other threads they shouldn’t actually buy at all until economic conditions in Spain start to change.

    Logan, sorry if you were being ironic and I missed it.
    My point however, is that people do know what the values of properties in this part of Spain are, because properties are selling. I am not involved with the real estate business so I can not quote figures, maybe somebody like Chris can, but let’s just take the example of my friend in Gib. She has looking at 3 bed townhouses on the market for between 200k and 230k and offering what is her maximum budget of 150k. Every offer has been declined. 3 houses that she liked have been sold this year and whilst I don’t have the sale prices I think we can assume that they were above 150k and below the asking price. So I can say, the value of a 3 bed, townhouse is between 150k and 230k. Agents that are selling in the area will know even more accurately what the value is.
    There seems to me a whole bunch of people, including a lot of Scandinavians and other nationalities who are using this period to buy properties at prices way below what they were at the peak. They are snapping up properties from owners who are the most keen to sell and believe they are getting a bargain.
    Now, only time will tell if they are getting bargains and clearly if prices drop another 50% or whatever, these buyers will be disappointed. On the other hand if things continue as they are with bargains getting sold there will be less and less bargains available, prices will eventually go up and all those people currently waiting for prices to come down will be the one’s disappointed. My friend is a case in point. She has now missed out on 3 properties which presumably were the best bargains in the area for that price and will now have to buy something that is not such a good bargain.

  • #103104
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @man in Marbella wrote:
    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Methinks you and Chris McCarthy missed my ironic sense of humour as a comment on the current state of the market. πŸ™‚ The point being that nobody knows what any property is really worth at the moment. Not even Agents or sellers.
    A person will sell if they need to at a price acceptable to them under these current difficult economic conditions. It’s all case by case basis or property by property. It’s impossible to estimate value it depends entirely on the sellers/buyers personal position.
    I don’t blame your friend for trying to secure a deal. They should be determined and only buy on their own terms. In fact as I have recommended on other threads they shouldn’t actually buy at all until economic conditions in Spain start to change.

    Logan, sorry if you were being ironic and I missed it.
    My point however, is that people do know what the values of properties in this part of Spain are, because properties are selling. I am not involved with the real estate business so I can not quote figures, maybe somebody like Chris can, but let’s just take the example of my friend in Gib. She has looking at 3 bed townhouses on the market for between 200k and 230k and offering what is her maximum budget of 150k. Every offer has been declined. 3 houses that she liked have been sold this year and whilst I don’t have the sale prices I think we can assume that they were above 150k and below the asking price. So I can say, the value of a 3 bed, townhouse is between 150k and 230k. Agents that are selling in the area will know even more accurately what the value is.
    There seems to me a whole bunch of people, including a lot of Scandinavians and other nationalities who are using this period to buy properties at prices way below what they were at the peak. They are snapping up properties from owners who are the most keen to sell and believe they are getting a bargain.
    Now, only time will tell if they are getting bargains and clearly if prices drop another 50% or whatever, these buyers will be disappointed. On the other hand if things continue as they are with bargains getting sold there will be less and less bargains available, prices will eventually go up and all those people currently waiting for prices to come down will be the one’s disappointed. My friend is a case in point. She has now missed out on 3 properties which presumably were the best bargains in the area for that price and will now have to buy something that is not such a good bargain.

  • #103306
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Well if your friends maximum budget was/is 150K she has hardly ‘missed out’ on anything because presumably the properties she offered on were unaffordable for her anyway.

  • #103106
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Well if your friends maximum budget was/is 150K she has hardly ‘missed out’ on anything because presumably the properties she offered on were unaffordable for her anyway.

  • #103307
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Agreed but the point I am making is that she is going around in the blind belief that the whole market is shot to pieces and that she can go at look at 200k plus properties and get them for 150k. The comments you make on this forum fuel that sort of thinking.
    She has been wasting her time during which I am sure properties within her budget have sold and so her choice of bargain properties is less than it was a few months ago.
    If this forum is to be of any use to prospective buyers then a true picture of what is going on needs to be portrayed.

  • #103107
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Agreed but the point I am making is that she is going around in the blind belief that the whole market is shot to pieces and that she can go at look at 200k plus properties and get them for 150k. The comments you make on this forum fuel that sort of thinking.
    She has been wasting her time during which I am sure properties within her budget have sold and so her choice of bargain properties is less than it was a few months ago.
    If this forum is to be of any use to prospective buyers then a true picture of what is going on needs to be portrayed.

  • #103308
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Who is going to provide a “true picture of what is going on”. Google for any facts and all you get is info’ from forums like this one. We all know that most of the posters are in some way or another connected with the property market. Why should anyone trust what they say? They may be correct but on the other hand their information hasn’t actually got a good past record. Most agents denied for 2 years or more that property was not selling then have been saying that the market had bottomed/picked up for the past 2 years when it was quite clear that was not the case.

    I am sceptical that the Scandinavians are purchasing enough to even dent the market. Sure some will be buying but they aren’t flocking there, infact they never did. Last stats I saw Scandinavians only owned 6% of spanish property as opposed to 52% British. I recently read that in Sweden most people never own their first home and it is common for 40% of the mortgage to be still owing on death.

  • #103108
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Who is going to provide a “true picture of what is going on”. Google for any facts and all you get is info’ from forums like this one. We all know that most of the posters are in some way or another connected with the property market. Why should anyone trust what they say? They may be correct but on the other hand their information hasn’t actually got a good past record. Most agents denied for 2 years or more that property was not selling then have been saying that the market had bottomed/picked up for the past 2 years when it was quite clear that was not the case.

    I am sceptical that the Scandinavians are purchasing enough to even dent the market. Sure some will be buying but they aren’t flocking there, infact they never did. Last stats I saw Scandinavians only owned 6% of spanish property as opposed to 52% British. I recently read that in Sweden most people never own their first home and it is common for 40% of the mortgage to be still owing on death.

  • #103309
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    The comments you make on this forum fuel that sort of thinking.

    I hardly think what I or other posters say on here influences anything. It’s the state of the market which drives your friend or anyone else to seek a good deal. That’s how markets work and long may it and your friend continue. Persistence brings it’s own reward. πŸ™‚ Be honest the market is shot to bits and it’s a free for all out there and don’t the agents hate it. πŸ˜†

  • #103109
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    The comments you make on this forum fuel that sort of thinking.

    I hardly think what I or other posters say on here influences anything. It’s the state of the market which drives your friend or anyone else to seek a good deal. That’s how markets work and long may it and your friend continue. Persistence brings it’s own reward. πŸ™‚ Be honest the market is shot to bits and it’s a free for all out there and don’t the agents hate it. πŸ˜†

  • #103310
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Katy – exactly, it’s hard to get a true picture of the Spanish property market which is why forums like this should be a good source of info.
    If you are saying that any poster on here with a positive outlook is connected with the property market and simply talking the market up then I agree, they and their posts are not much help. Likewise any posts saying the opposite and everybody should offer 50% of asking price or not buy at all are also not much help.
    I am not in the business and maybe all my friends that are in the business and telling me that “there are buyers around, all looking for bargains and hard work but nevertheless buying” are not telling me the truth but I doubt that.
    Sure the Scandies can not change/influence the market that much but they are just part of a group of people who are buying properties at the moment.
    I could not care less what happens to the property market here to be honest. I do own property here and of course it would be a nice feeling if it’s value went up but as I have no intention of selling it really does not make much difference to me. However, living here an observing what is going on and having friends working in the real estate business it is my honest opinion that the real bargains are being bought and my honest advice to people considering buying is, now is a good time to do so but research things properly, and make a sensible offer on whatever you property you see and like.
    Advice like Logans – offer 75k for a property that is clearly worth closer to 200k is misleading.

  • #103110
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Katy – exactly, it’s hard to get a true picture of the Spanish property market which is why forums like this should be a good source of info.
    If you are saying that any poster on here with a positive outlook is connected with the property market and simply talking the market up then I agree, they and their posts are not much help. Likewise any posts saying the opposite and everybody should offer 50% of asking price or not buy at all are also not much help.
    I am not in the business and maybe all my friends that are in the business and telling me that “there are buyers around, all looking for bargains and hard work but nevertheless buying” are not telling me the truth but I doubt that.
    Sure the Scandies can not change/influence the market that much but they are just part of a group of people who are buying properties at the moment.
    I could not care less what happens to the property market here to be honest. I do own property here and of course it would be a nice feeling if it’s value went up but as I have no intention of selling it really does not make much difference to me. However, living here an observing what is going on and having friends working in the real estate business it is my honest opinion that the real bargains are being bought and my honest advice to people considering buying is, now is a good time to do so but research things properly, and make a sensible offer on whatever you property you see and like.
    Advice like Logans – offer 75k for a property that is clearly worth closer to 200k is misleading.

  • #103311
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I think thi is a very good personal view of the market. Hope it’s ok to link

    http://www.eyeonspain.com/spain-magazine/spanish-price-drop-case-study.aspx

  • #103111
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I think thi is a very good personal view of the market. Hope it’s ok to link

    http://www.eyeonspain.com/spain-magazine/spanish-price-drop-case-study.aspx

  • #103314
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    That is an interesting article indeed Katy, thanks for posting the link.

    The comments are also quite revealing. Given that it is EoS where so many estate agents hang out, I’m kind of surprised that there aren’t more of them on there telling the author that he is wrong, things aren’t as bad as he says, etc.

  • #103114
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    That is an interesting article indeed Katy, thanks for posting the link.

    The comments are also quite revealing. Given that it is EoS where so many estate agents hang out, I’m kind of surprised that there aren’t more of them on there telling the author that he is wrong, things aren’t as bad as he says, etc.

  • #103315
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    tThe author of that article is very honest and realistic. I particulary agree with this statement I predict that over the next couple of years the value of the apartment will drop to around €50,000. And, going by the still huge amount of unsold stock in the area, I predict it will take at least 10 years for my apartment to return to its 2003 value.
    Prices still have to drop significantly before we see any sort of recovery.

    Here is a man who accepts his fate.
    Negative economic pressures continue to create a downside picture especially in the EU peripheral states. Looming interest rate rises and global commodity price hikes will exasperate the situation.

  • #103115
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    tThe author of that article is very honest and realistic. I particulary agree with this statement I predict that over the next couple of years the value of the apartment will drop to around €50,000. And, going by the still huge amount of unsold stock in the area, I predict it will take at least 10 years for my apartment to return to its 2003 value.
    Prices still have to drop significantly before we see any sort of recovery.

    Here is a man who accepts his fate.
    Negative economic pressures continue to create a downside picture especially in the EU peripheral states. Looming interest rate rises and global commodity price hikes will exasperate the situation.

  • #103317
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris McCarthy – are you reading this? πŸ˜‰

    Now do you still stand by your “bottom of the market/finally through the worst” comment made two years ago?
    I’m talking about prices – not square meterage of your new office/number of enquiries/sales leads etc. I’ve read everything you’ve written in defence of your statement, and still want to hear “actually I was wrong” regarding bottom of the market (prices). 😈

    Real case studies like Justin’s is a good indication in my view as to the true current picture – good link Katy.

  • #103117
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris McCarthy – are you reading this? πŸ˜‰

    Now do you still stand by your “bottom of the market/finally through the worst” comment made two years ago?
    I’m talking about prices – not square meterage of your new office/number of enquiries/sales leads etc. I’ve read everything you’ve written in defence of your statement, and still want to hear “actually I was wrong” regarding bottom of the market (prices). 😈

    Real case studies like Justin’s is a good indication in my view as to the true current picture – good link Katy.

  • #103318
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Shall I offer them 180k for the second one down? That’s 50% of the original advertised price. Worth a shot?

    The curtains are too short, the loo brush doesn’t sit straight in its holder and the paella pan hook is so badly positioned the pan overlaps the window. So no, wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.

  • #103118
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Shall I offer them 180k for the second one down? That’s 50% of the original advertised price. Worth a shot?

    The curtains are too short, the loo brush doesn’t sit straight in its holder and the paella pan hook is so badly positioned the pan overlaps the window. So no, wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.

  • #103319
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    One response to this article that is well worth reading is the post by TJ222 at the end of this long thread (bottom of page 19). He reckons the author is being over optimistic.

    http://www.eyeonspain.com/forums/posts-long-2075p7ondak-.htm

    Normally I wouldn’t give an individual’s post too much weight but this guy started the thread, entitled “The coming worldwide credit crunch” back in August 2007. This was at a time when some of us had head of the US sub-prime crisis bot nobody had even considered what it might do to European property markets. In the years sine then he has been remarkably consistent and accurate. Most of the EA’s who were poo poohing him back then seem to have vanished.

    Another 50% to come off prices anyone?

  • #103119
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    One response to this article that is well worth reading is the post by TJ222 at the end of this long thread (bottom of page 19). He reckons the author is being over optimistic.

    http://www.eyeonspain.com/forums/posts-long-2075p7ondak-.htm

    Normally I wouldn’t give an individual’s post too much weight but this guy started the thread, entitled “The coming worldwide credit crunch” back in August 2007. This was at a time when some of us had head of the US sub-prime crisis bot nobody had even considered what it might do to European property markets. In the years sine then he has been remarkably consistent and accurate. Most of the EA’s who were poo poohing him back then seem to have vanished.

    Another 50% to come off prices anyone?

  • #103320
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas – anyway buyers aren’t that stupid anymore !!!!!!!!! Adiep, I think San Roque is a good place to consider!!

    Brian_li 50%!!, possibly in 3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  • #103120
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas – anyway buyers aren’t that stupid anymore !!!!!!!!! Adiep, I think San Roque is a good place to consider!!

    Brian_li 50%!!, possibly in 3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  • #103322
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ubeda, if you actually bothered to read TJ222’s analysis you’d see that he is talking about Spain and other club med countries having to leave the euro. If/when that happens the 50% devaluation will apply to everywhere.

  • #103122
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ubeda, if you actually bothered to read TJ222’s analysis you’d see that he is talking about Spain and other club med countries having to leave the euro. If/when that happens the 50% devaluation will apply to everywhere.

  • #103323
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    When Moody’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating this morning by one notch with negative outlook their comments were interesting. The assessment on the future economic prospects for Spain would have been much worse save the resolve of the government to implement austerity measures. That said they also said the estimated costs of restructuring the banks were inadequate. This all points to further downside slides in the coming short to medium term.
    With Spanish and British household incomes being squeezed, government cuts in spending, poor or negative economic growth and likely civil unrest such as airport strikes, how is the property markets suddenly going to bottom or recover?
    I do notice on here now and elsewhere and increasing awareness of the seriousness of the current situation, property professionals exempted.
    I and a few others get constantly accused of negativity when we try and explain a realistic view of the state of the market. Well perhaps that view is now a little more mainstream.

  • #103123
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    When Moody’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating this morning by one notch with negative outlook their comments were interesting. The assessment on the future economic prospects for Spain would have been much worse save the resolve of the government to implement austerity measures. That said they also said the estimated costs of restructuring the banks were inadequate. This all points to further downside slides in the coming short to medium term.
    With Spanish and British household incomes being squeezed, government cuts in spending, poor or negative economic growth and likely civil unrest such as airport strikes, how is the property markets suddenly going to bottom or recover?
    I do notice on here now and elsewhere and increasing awareness of the seriousness of the current situation, property professionals exempted.
    I and a few others get constantly accused of negativity when we try and explain a realistic view of the state of the market. Well perhaps that view is now a little more mainstream.

  • #103326
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas ……..3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

    ‘Mr. Mc’ and his website is currently promoting 320 properties in Manilva, UBEDA.

    Perhaps you should try checking a little before you come out with ‘mocking nonsense’.

  • #103126
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas ……..3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

    ‘Mr. Mc’ and his website is currently promoting 320 properties in Manilva, UBEDA.

    Perhaps you should try checking a little before you come out with ‘mocking nonsense’.

  • #103328
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Just to backtrack….A property could drop to 50,000 but that doesn’t mean that owners will sell them. Lower the values fall and there will be less properties around.

  • #103128
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Just to backtrack….A property could drop to 50,000 but that doesn’t mean that owners will sell them. Lower the values fall and there will be less properties around.

  • #103347
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Spanish banks and also the FROB have now also been downgraded by Moody’s. The FROB of course being the governement backed fund that will supposedly bail out the banks — the way things are going, the FROB will need bailing.

    Regarding making 50% offers near Gib, I say go for it. Ive been watching this market for 3 years and the same properties plus new are still for sale. Theres an expectation in this area that some foreigner is going to pay a fortune for a hovel of a slum property – just isnt gonna happen as theres so much available for rent.

    A word on renting, the prices have fallen by half in La Linea. This place im in now was renting for 1300 euros in 2007, now 650. Up for sale at 200k now, and Im expecting rents to fall further to around 500 euros a month in 2011.

  • #103147
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Spanish banks and also the FROB have now also been downgraded by Moody’s. The FROB of course being the governement backed fund that will supposedly bail out the banks — the way things are going, the FROB will need bailing.

    Regarding making 50% offers near Gib, I say go for it. Ive been watching this market for 3 years and the same properties plus new are still for sale. Theres an expectation in this area that some foreigner is going to pay a fortune for a hovel of a slum property – just isnt gonna happen as theres so much available for rent.

    A word on renting, the prices have fallen by half in La Linea. This place im in now was renting for 1300 euros in 2007, now 650. Up for sale at 200k now, and Im expecting rents to fall further to around 500 euros a month in 2011.

  • #103350
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Good facts on the downgrade here.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/10/new-fears-for-spain-bank-stress-tests-debt-downgraded
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8374754/Spain-downgrade-sparks-storm-over-rating-agencies.html
    The Spanish government blames the Anglo-Saxon rating agencies, says their bank provisions are adequate. Mortgage delinquency rates low. If that’s true why are the banks over burdened with repossessions?
    Reading that article you could be forgiven in thinking the Spanish government has lost the plot and inhabit a parallel universe.

  • #103150
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Good facts on the downgrade here.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/10/new-fears-for-spain-bank-stress-tests-debt-downgraded
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8374754/Spain-downgrade-sparks-storm-over-rating-agencies.html
    The Spanish government blames the Anglo-Saxon rating agencies, says their bank provisions are adequate. Mortgage delinquency rates low. If that’s true why are the banks over burdened with repossessions?
    Reading that article you could be forgiven in thinking the Spanish government has lost the plot and inhabit a parallel universe.

  • #103358
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Indeed, and am getting a bit fed up of it myself

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I am not involved with the real estate business so I can not quote figures, maybe somebody like Chris can…

    This month only, 11th March – there are 8 registered sales in the office – and 2 further waiting offer acceptance and reservation by latest Monday, but they quite confident in the office they are effectively on 10 sales but we don’t call them, unless Vendor / Buyer all signed and reservation received.

    So much for people not buying. If it wasn’t absolutely hammering it down with rain the whole misbegotten week, they think they would have been on a confirmed sale a day. But hey we happy with 8 in 11 so far.

    I think people would trust me enough on this forum not to spin actual performance figures and take this as fact.

  • #103162
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Indeed, and am getting a bit fed up of it myself

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I am not involved with the real estate business so I can not quote figures, maybe somebody like Chris can…

    This month only, 11th March – there are 8 registered sales in the office – and 2 further waiting offer acceptance and reservation by latest Monday, but they quite confident in the office they are effectively on 10 sales but we don’t call them, unless Vendor / Buyer all signed and reservation received.

    So much for people not buying. If it wasn’t absolutely hammering it down with rain the whole misbegotten week, they think they would have been on a confirmed sale a day. But hey we happy with 8 in 11 so far.

    I think people would trust me enough on this forum not to spin actual performance figures and take this as fact.

  • #103359
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Chris McCarthy – are you reading this? πŸ˜‰

    Now do you still stand by your “bottom of the market/finally through the worst” comment made two years ago?
    I’m talking about prices – not square meterage of your new office/number of enquiries/sales leads etc. I’ve read everything you’ve written in defence of your statement, and still want to hear “actually I was wrong” regarding bottom of the market (prices). 😈
    .

    Am still here Charlie πŸ™‚

    Thank you for giving time and consideration to reading my defence, and with that in mind…

    I am happy to confirm that within the context you refer to above:

    I was wrong regarding bottom of the market prices two years ago.

    Very wrong as it happens.

    Hope that clears that issue up.

  • #103164
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Chris McCarthy – are you reading this? πŸ˜‰

    Now do you still stand by your “bottom of the market/finally through the worst” comment made two years ago?
    I’m talking about prices – not square meterage of your new office/number of enquiries/sales leads etc. I’ve read everything you’ve written in defence of your statement, and still want to hear “actually I was wrong” regarding bottom of the market (prices). 😈
    .

    Am still here Charlie πŸ™‚

    Thank you for giving time and consideration to reading my defence, and with that in mind…

    I am happy to confirm that within the context you refer to above:

    I was wrong regarding bottom of the market prices two years ago.

    Very wrong as it happens.

    Hope that clears that issue up.

  • #103360
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    @UBEDA wrote:
    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas ……..3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

    ‘Mr. Mc’ and his website is currently promoting 320 properties in Manilva, UBEDA.

    Perhaps you should try checking a little before you come out with ‘mocking nonsense’.

    Our website includes not only our listings but all of those listed with other agents within the Infocasa network. It is something we would actually like to change, but creates a real marketing / lead generation problem if we do. Truth be known I just hate the fact that we are sucked into showing all the properties of all the agents. Right now we have to, it is a necessary evil, give me some time and I will change that.

    So UBEDA is not entirely wrong, and nor are you as there are technically 320 properties available through us in that area, and guess what…? We sold a few too in that area recently.

    However, I wouldn’t consider Manilva to be a 3rd rate area per se.

  • #103166
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    @UBEDA wrote:
    I don’t think good agents (inc Mr Mc) are promoting 3 rd rate areas ……..3rd rate areas like manilva!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

    ‘Mr. Mc’ and his website is currently promoting 320 properties in Manilva, UBEDA.

    Perhaps you should try checking a little before you come out with ‘mocking nonsense’.

    Our website includes not only our listings but all of those listed with other agents within the Infocasa network. It is something we would actually like to change, but creates a real marketing / lead generation problem if we do. Truth be known I just hate the fact that we are sucked into showing all the properties of all the agents. Right now we have to, it is a necessary evil, give me some time and I will change that.

    So UBEDA is not entirely wrong, and nor are you as there are technically 320 properties available through us in that area, and guess what…? We sold a few too in that area recently.

    However, I wouldn’t consider Manilva to be a 3rd rate area per se.

  • #103168
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @man in Marbella wrote:
    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Indeed, and am getting a bit fed up of it myself

    Sell much this week Chris?

  • #103361
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @man in Marbella wrote:
    I too would question logan’s motives. Sometimes this board is just plain stupid and quite frankly misleading.

    Indeed, and am getting a bit fed up of it myself

    Sell much this week Chris?

  • #103170
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Sell much this week Chris?

    Yes the answer to that is in the same post you quoted above.

  • #103362
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Sell much this week Chris?

    Yes the answer to that is in the same post you quoted above.

  • #103172
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @adiep wrote:
    Sell much this week Chris?

    Yes the answer to that is in the same post you quoted above.

    Cool, so why not cheer up and stop whinging at the “bears” πŸ™‚

    They are entitled to voice their bearish opinions in the same manner you are allowed to talk up the market.

  • #103363
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @adiep wrote:
    Sell much this week Chris?

    Yes the answer to that is in the same post you quoted above.

    Cool, so why not cheer up and stop whinging at the “bears” πŸ™‚

    They are entitled to voice their bearish opinions in the same manner you are allowed to talk up the market.

  • #103174
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I think the bears have it. After all we have no ulterior motive other than fee speech in a democratic world.
    The bulls want to sell, sell, sell and care nothing if their clients are making the biggest financial blunder of their lives.
    If you are fed up with me Chris then I suggest you either ignore this forum or accept that an alternative view of the market based on valid research and years of experience is constructive and helpful to other people.
    If it helps just one person to hold back I’m content.
    Imagine the alternative if all we read on here how wonderful a prospect buying a holiday home in Spain was. It would be like reading those free sheets agents of your cloth punt around. πŸ™

  • #103364
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I think the bears have it. After all we have no ulterior motive other than fee speech in a democratic world.
    The bulls want to sell, sell, sell and care nothing if their clients are making the biggest financial blunder of their lives.
    If you are fed up with me Chris then I suggest you either ignore this forum or accept that an alternative view of the market based on valid research and years of experience is constructive and helpful to other people.
    If it helps just one person to hold back I’m content.
    Imagine the alternative if all we read on here how wonderful a prospect buying a holiday home in Spain was. It would be like reading those free sheets agents of your cloth punt around. πŸ™

  • #103180
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Cool, so why not cheer up and stop whinging at the “bears” πŸ™‚
    They are entitled to voice their bearish opinions in the same manner you are allowed to talk up the market.

    You are quite right πŸ™‚

    But am just getting a little weary of endless links to financial analysis of every market indicator article from around the net, it seems to me to be killing the debate, I have been away from here all week, as I don’t think I have much more to add to this forum at present.

    I don’t think any of the bears are wrong per se, within their own context and interests they are right, but… It isn’t the whole picture, not by a long way is it the true picture.

    And I don’t like to be seen as talking the market up, jeeze if you see my posts as talking the market up, wait until it does climb off the floor then you will see me talking it up. Or maybe you won’t, cos I don’t want competitors piling in.

    I like to think I contribute from one side of the market with an insight that is perhaps not otherwise available, I do value the forum highly, and how these days there is rarely any hostility which was so prevalent a year or so ago amongst posters.

    But it is killing my interest in continuing to look at some of this stuff, and you know what, actually there seems to be so few views of the threads these days, and so few posts, that I think I will take a breather and come back later when perhaps the indicators do change, and see whether Logan et al have something different to say than lecturing us all on why now is not the time to buy or do anything.

    You all can think that the time to buy is ten years from now, but more than a few of us will probably be in a box by then, I have a new issue of our magazine coming out next week, some pretty intensive and hopefully innovative local marketing coming up on the CDS over Easter, we are now recruiting again because we just don’t have enough staff and I am desperately trying to finish the delivery of a whole new website and establish that with all manner of hopefully good, practical, healthy and even handed advice etc.

    Those that can do, those that can’t preach, and am sorry because I don’t mean to be insulting, but I see Logan as some tired old preacher. I set myself up to be shot down by saying this, and I just blooming hope that I can do some energetic, positive, pro active and vibrant stuff for our Vendors and our Buyers. I might well fail, but am gonna give it bloody good go and go down all guns blazing – now that is talking the market up… but it has no place here.

    Am going to apply myself the real world for awhile and good luck all you bears, you are a very practical, sensible bunch, just a little too over analytical for me, and I don’t think your that interested what I have to say.

  • #103367
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Cool, so why not cheer up and stop whinging at the “bears” πŸ™‚
    They are entitled to voice their bearish opinions in the same manner you are allowed to talk up the market.

    You are quite right πŸ™‚

    But am just getting a little weary of endless links to financial analysis of every market indicator article from around the net, it seems to me to be killing the debate, I have been away from here all week, as I don’t think I have much more to add to this forum at present.

    I don’t think any of the bears are wrong per se, within their own context and interests they are right, but… It isn’t the whole picture, not by a long way is it the true picture.

    And I don’t like to be seen as talking the market up, jeeze if you see my posts as talking the market up, wait until it does climb off the floor then you will see me talking it up. Or maybe you won’t, cos I don’t want competitors piling in.

    I like to think I contribute from one side of the market with an insight that is perhaps not otherwise available, I do value the forum highly, and how these days there is rarely any hostility which was so prevalent a year or so ago amongst posters.

    But it is killing my interest in continuing to look at some of this stuff, and you know what, actually there seems to be so few views of the threads these days, and so few posts, that I think I will take a breather and come back later when perhaps the indicators do change, and see whether Logan et al have something different to say than lecturing us all on why now is not the time to buy or do anything.

    You all can think that the time to buy is ten years from now, but more than a few of us will probably be in a box by then, I have a new issue of our magazine coming out next week, some pretty intensive and hopefully innovative local marketing coming up on the CDS over Easter, we are now recruiting again because we just don’t have enough staff and I am desperately trying to finish the delivery of a whole new website and establish that with all manner of hopefully good, practical, healthy and even handed advice etc.

    Those that can do, those that can’t preach, and am sorry because I don’t mean to be insulting, but I see Logan as some tired old preacher. I set myself up to be shot down by saying this, and I just blooming hope that I can do some energetic, positive, pro active and vibrant stuff for our Vendors and our Buyers. I might well fail, but am gonna give it bloody good go and go down all guns blazing – now that is talking the market up… but it has no place here.

    Am going to apply myself the real world for awhile and good luck all you bears, you are a very practical, sensible bunch, just a little too over analytical for me, and I don’t think your that interested what I have to say.

  • #103182
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    I think the bears have it. After all we have no ulterior motive other than fee speech in a democratic world.
    If it helps just one person to hold back I’m content.
    πŸ™

    Just a bit too evangelical for me Logan, a bit too self serving and self righteous.

    You are boring the pants off me and I am evidently doing likewise to you. So lets just leave it at that.

  • #103368
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    I think the bears have it. After all we have no ulterior motive other than fee speech in a democratic world.
    If it helps just one person to hold back I’m content.
    πŸ™

    Just a bit too evangelical for me Logan, a bit too self serving and self righteous.

    You are boring the pants off me and I am evidently doing likewise to you. So lets just leave it at that.

  • #103188
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    That’s an old trick Chris, shooting the messenger when it cuts across your path. Does you no credit.
    Market analysis keeps companies profitable and away from bear traps.
    I could not care less if I bore you. I suppose if I woke up one morning and saw market recovery on the horizon you would shout all hail. If I did, I would.
    Until that time I will continue to call it as I see it.

  • #103371
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    That’s an old trick Chris, shooting the messenger when it cuts across your path. Does you no credit.
    Market analysis keeps companies profitable and away from bear traps.
    I could not care less if I bore you. I suppose if I woke up one morning and saw market recovery on the horizon you would shout all hail. If I did, I would.
    Until that time I will continue to call it as I see it.

  • #103206
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I am happy to confirm that within the context you refer to above: I was wrong regarding bottom of the market prices two years ago. Very wrong as it happens. Hope that clears that issue up.

    Thank you Chris – taken on the chin like a true gentleman.

    If this was a how-to-heat-your-home forum and Chris was in the alternative energy business, he would be advocating photovoltaic panels and biothermal underfloor heating. And logan, if flogging diesel-driven radiator central heating systems as a profession, likewise be crowing the virtues of diesel. It’s the nature of the beast, conflict of opinions, interest, and experience – surely what forums are all about and no-one deserves a constant bashing, whatever side of the fence they sit. I will give Chris his due on one thing, he has not been sneaky like some agents on this forum. Always been open about his profession and exactly who he is from day 1. Love him or hate him, cynical about his views or not, you have to give him that.

    Chris – I am curious, can I ask:
    Re. your “there are 8 registered sales in the office – and 2 further waiting offer acceptance and reservation…” (I gather these sales have been nurtured from Feb/even Jan?)
    could you roughly group the price range, eg. how many under 250,000 euros, up to 500,000 euros, 500,000 – 1,000,000 euros, over a million.
    It would give us a bit of a picture of what is moving. Is it just the cheapies or the millionaire-type stuff?

  • #103380
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I am happy to confirm that within the context you refer to above: I was wrong regarding bottom of the market prices two years ago. Very wrong as it happens. Hope that clears that issue up.

    Thank you Chris – taken on the chin like a true gentleman.

    If this was a how-to-heat-your-home forum and Chris was in the alternative energy business, he would be advocating photovoltaic panels and biothermal underfloor heating. And logan, if flogging diesel-driven radiator central heating systems as a profession, likewise be crowing the virtues of diesel. It’s the nature of the beast, conflict of opinions, interest, and experience – surely what forums are all about and no-one deserves a constant bashing, whatever side of the fence they sit. I will give Chris his due on one thing, he has not been sneaky like some agents on this forum. Always been open about his profession and exactly who he is from day 1. Love him or hate him, cynical about his views or not, you have to give him that.

    Chris – I am curious, can I ask:
    Re. your “there are 8 registered sales in the office – and 2 further waiting offer acceptance and reservation…” (I gather these sales have been nurtured from Feb/even Jan?)
    could you roughly group the price range, eg. how many under 250,000 euros, up to 500,000 euros, 500,000 – 1,000,000 euros, over a million.
    It would give us a bit of a picture of what is moving. Is it just the cheapies or the millionaire-type stuff?

  • #103210
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I have to say I agree with what Chris said here

    But am just getting a little weary of endless links to financial analysis of every market indicator article from around the net, it seems to me to be killing the debate.

    Whatever the stats say I doubt if you will ever get a decent apartment in a nice area for 50,000 and all the chewing over the stats is very boring. Properties don’t fall evenly according to stats, even if you see a low price apartment it may not be the block or position that is desirable. If some of you are seriously interested you should get out there instead of browsing property and financial websites as they tell you nothing compared to being on the ground.

  • #103382
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I have to say I agree with what Chris said here

    But am just getting a little weary of endless links to financial analysis of every market indicator article from around the net, it seems to me to be killing the debate.

    Whatever the stats say I doubt if you will ever get a decent apartment in a nice area for 50,000 and all the chewing over the stats is very boring. Properties don’t fall evenly according to stats, even if you see a low price apartment it may not be the block or position that is desirable. If some of you are seriously interested you should get out there instead of browsing property and financial websites as they tell you nothing compared to being on the ground.

  • #103218
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    . If some of you are seriously interested you should get out there instead of browsing property and financial websites as they tell you nothing compared to being on the ground.

    Very true Katy, however its not so easy with a 2 yo and demanding job. There’s so much crap out there that it takes an age to find something vaguely worth looking at.

    Well, thats the case in this area, the quality of the housing is dire.

  • #103386
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    . If some of you are seriously interested you should get out there instead of browsing property and financial websites as they tell you nothing compared to being on the ground.

    Very true Katy, however its not so easy with a 2 yo and demanding job. There’s so much crap out there that it takes an age to find something vaguely worth looking at.

    Well, thats the case in this area, the quality of the housing is dire.

  • #103266
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    That’s an old trick Chris, shooting the messenger when it cuts across your path. Does you no credit.
    Market analysis keeps companies profitable and away from bear traps.
    I could not care less if I bore you. I suppose if I woke up one morning and saw market recovery on the horizon you would shout all hail. If I did, I would.
    Until that time I will continue to call it as I see it.

    Ahhh… St Logan of France is it not? I am now doing myself no credit.

    So… I am shooting you the messenger, YOU the voice of the free democratic world, YOU whose sole goal is to save but at least one invidividual from buying themselves a new and happy life in Spain, because YOU and only you with your experience 30 years ago of having bought in Spain bulk units to make money from, then only YOU the messenger, know that all is ill and evil under the sun.

    You are probably correct Logan, it does me no credit, to be cynical and doubting of your intentions. But I have read an awful lot of posters on this forum, and your approach seems to me to be the most calculating, dubious and agenda filled that I have ever come across.

    The way you post links and market analysis that is so far bent out of shape, obscure to the issues, with extreme views on macro issues, and act as if Spain was the only country that has a banking, employment, deficit crisis, as if the UK didn’t have any issues. I am sorry if it makes me question YOU the messenger Logan.

    You see for every analytical picked up bit of a link you post about Spain, am sure I could double / quadruple that to show in response something as equally negative about the UK economy.

    But then I would be boring the pants off everyone as well, instead of trying to talk openly and clearly with practical and physical on the ground information about why people do buy, have always bought, and why.

    I am not the one shooting the messenger Logan, YOU are, you want to espouse your evangelical theory to the whole world and save those poor souls from what YOU believe is the wrong thing to do, you need to wake up Logan, people don’t buy it – just cos you say it is so don’t make it so – a lot of people have a different perspective on what they want out of life other than listening to your sermons on the macros.

  • #103410
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    That’s an old trick Chris, shooting the messenger when it cuts across your path. Does you no credit.
    Market analysis keeps companies profitable and away from bear traps.
    I could not care less if I bore you. I suppose if I woke up one morning and saw market recovery on the horizon you would shout all hail. If I did, I would.
    Until that time I will continue to call it as I see it.

    Ahhh… St Logan of France is it not? I am now doing myself no credit.

    So… I am shooting you the messenger, YOU the voice of the free democratic world, YOU whose sole goal is to save but at least one invidividual from buying themselves a new and happy life in Spain, because YOU and only you with your experience 30 years ago of having bought in Spain bulk units to make money from, then only YOU the messenger, know that all is ill and evil under the sun.

    You are probably correct Logan, it does me no credit, to be cynical and doubting of your intentions. But I have read an awful lot of posters on this forum, and your approach seems to me to be the most calculating, dubious and agenda filled that I have ever come across.

    The way you post links and market analysis that is so far bent out of shape, obscure to the issues, with extreme views on macro issues, and act as if Spain was the only country that has a banking, employment, deficit crisis, as if the UK didn’t have any issues. I am sorry if it makes me question YOU the messenger Logan.

    You see for every analytical picked up bit of a link you post about Spain, am sure I could double / quadruple that to show in response something as equally negative about the UK economy.

    But then I would be boring the pants off everyone as well, instead of trying to talk openly and clearly with practical and physical on the ground information about why people do buy, have always bought, and why.

    I am not the one shooting the messenger Logan, YOU are, you want to espouse your evangelical theory to the whole world and save those poor souls from what YOU believe is the wrong thing to do, you need to wake up Logan, people don’t buy it – just cos you say it is so don’t make it so – a lot of people have a different perspective on what they want out of life other than listening to your sermons on the macros.

  • #103282
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ha. Great post Chris.
    Logan, I am curious as to why you post on this forum and what it is with Spain that you dislike so much. Maybe posters should be asked to complete a little questionaire before posting so that people who come onto this board for advice (which is what I thought it was here for) can at least judge whether or not a poster as an ulterior motive.
    As far as I am concerned – I am semi retired, happily living in Marbella and enjoying the Spanish lifestyle. Apart from owning a property here I have no interest in the property business although like most people here a lot of my friends are connected with the property world. It is from those friends and just generally what I see going on that I form the opinion that now is a good time to buy and that is the advice I would offer a good friend or relative.
    Chris is obviously an estate agent and you would expect a very bullish stance from him and maybe when he says his Company have done 8 confirmed sales this month so far it might be an exageration. However, my bet would be that they have done something like this and therfore that indicates people are buying which I don’t think was the case 2 years ago and so that would suggest an improving market.
    Anyway, Logan – I am curious as to your situation. I have looked, and you post on here most days. I started to look at your posts and they are all negative and then I came across this – “The renting plan is good. However the difficult bit will be finding the right property in the right place which suits you. The choice is enormous so don’t commit for a long period until you have tried it.
    Angie is right, most places in Spain can be fine for the winter but come the holiday season it can be grim. Heat, noise, traffic, dust, drunks and children”.
    Now as I say I live here all year round and I have no problem with the heat, noise, traffic, dust, drunks or children. Has Spain specificaly done something to make you so against the country or are you just generally miserable about mot things including heat and children?

  • #103418
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ha. Great post Chris.
    Logan, I am curious as to why you post on this forum and what it is with Spain that you dislike so much. Maybe posters should be asked to complete a little questionaire before posting so that people who come onto this board for advice (which is what I thought it was here for) can at least judge whether or not a poster as an ulterior motive.
    As far as I am concerned – I am semi retired, happily living in Marbella and enjoying the Spanish lifestyle. Apart from owning a property here I have no interest in the property business although like most people here a lot of my friends are connected with the property world. It is from those friends and just generally what I see going on that I form the opinion that now is a good time to buy and that is the advice I would offer a good friend or relative.
    Chris is obviously an estate agent and you would expect a very bullish stance from him and maybe when he says his Company have done 8 confirmed sales this month so far it might be an exageration. However, my bet would be that they have done something like this and therfore that indicates people are buying which I don’t think was the case 2 years ago and so that would suggest an improving market.
    Anyway, Logan – I am curious as to your situation. I have looked, and you post on here most days. I started to look at your posts and they are all negative and then I came across this – “The renting plan is good. However the difficult bit will be finding the right property in the right place which suits you. The choice is enormous so don’t commit for a long period until you have tried it.
    Angie is right, most places in Spain can be fine for the winter but come the holiday season it can be grim. Heat, noise, traffic, dust, drunks and children”.
    Now as I say I live here all year round and I have no problem with the heat, noise, traffic, dust, drunks or children. Has Spain specificaly done something to make you so against the country or are you just generally miserable about mot things including heat and children?

  • #103424
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    What I have tried to do in my small way is suggest an alternative point of view to accepted norms about markets and in particular Spanish property.
    Markets, especially property markets are affected directly by global macro economics. If some of you find that dull and uninteresting well you don’t have to read or contribute to the thread. However like or not the up’s and down’s of global business or the lack of it generates in turn global prosperity and that prosperity filters down to local market demand.
    Posting links can sometimes direct the reader to other alternative views they would not normally consider. That may or may not be helpful or useful. Plainly many of you think the latter. However I personally have always believed in challenging thought or new ideas. That’s often difficult to filter out of simple sales or politically correct propaganda
    Indulging in personal attacks on myself, or wondering about my motives contributes nothing whatever to the debate and perhaps says more about the attacker than the victim.
    My interests lie in business and profit wherever that might lie. The property market in Spain was once a lucrative source for that but is not any longer, nor will it be for many years.
    So perhaps my critics on here actually have a point and there really is little purpose in me posting anything on a site which simply wants to sell holiday dreams in the sun or reinforce their own personal decisions.

  • #103425
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    logan: You say that your interests lie in business & profit. That’s fine but not every-one thinks like that. Not every-one who bought in Spain bought as an ‘investment’ looking for a profit.

    Please accept that some of us bought because we just wanted a place in Spain.

    I don’t want to rent some-elses property, I want my property with my furniture & decor. I also don’t want to pay some-one elses mortgage.

    My place at La Torre is now worth half what I paid; I can’t say that fills me with joy but as I bought for the long term & I don’t have a mortgage I can live with that, I appreciate however that others (some with mortgages) have problems.

    Will prices go down more? Possibly, but if you want a place & can afford it now, why wait? If you keep waiting for the market to bottom out you will never buy. I have the pleasure of using my place every couple of months, my family also use it & some friends use it.

    The one thing I would advise people against however, is a taking a mortgage out. There are just too many variables at work, not just in Spain but also in the UK. I have a number of friends who are now in their 50’s who have lost their jobs, they are struggling to keep their UK property let alone Spain.

    Just accept please that we are all different & what suits you doesn’t suit others.

  • #103426
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @rob6578 wrote:

    logan: You say that your interests lie in business & profit. That’s fine but not every-one thinks like that. Not every-one who bought in Spain bought as an ‘investment’ looking for a profit.

    Please accept that some of us bought because we just wanted a place in Spain.

    I don’t want to rent some-elses property, I want my property with my furniture & decor. I also don’t want to pay some-one elses mortgage.

    My place at La Torre is now worth half what I paid; I can’t say that fills me with joy but as I bought for the long term & I don’t have a mortgage I can live with that, I appreciate however that others (some with mortgages) have problems.

    Will prices go down more? Possibly, but if you want a place & can afford it now, why wait? If you keep waiting for the market to bottom out you will never buy. I have the pleasure of using my place every couple of months, my family also use it & some friends use it.

    The one thing I would advise people against however, is a taking a mortgage out. There are just too many variables at work, not just in Spain but also in the UK. I have a number of friends who are now in their 50’s who have lost their jobs, they are struggling to keep their UK property let alone Spain.

    Just accept please that we are all different & what suits you doesn’t suit others.

    good balanced post,of course people buying for long term life style shouldn’t worry too much about weather its at the bottom as if it goes down it will come back up and if they own it long enough go back down again.
    logan posts some good links to data what would you prefer he posted the spainish governments figures.
    i do agree thou if you need a mortgauge now is not the time to buy either in spain or the uk

  • #103429
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Logan – I’m still not sure why you choose to come on a Spanish property board more or less every day and take a really extreme view on how bad practically everything in the country is. Do you post on Bulgarian and Cape Verde boards as well?

    Regarding mortgages – I am certainly not a big fan of people stretching themselves financially but talking out a mortgage does limit exchange rate risks and at the moment it limits the risk of a situation that is discussed from time to time – the complete collapse of the Euro. I still have friends back in London who still have very good jobs and are under no threat of losing their jobs. They think with low interest rates, and property prices very low now is the time to buy with a mortgage (they are buying properties in London before anybody accuses me of being pro Spain). So, for some people I think mortgages can work.

  • #103430
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well I for one find Logans insights, whilst I don’t always agree with him, useful.

    To put it in context I am potentially one of those ‘lifestyle buyers’ that a couple on here have referred to. I have cash in the bank and am looking to purchase a property on the CDS which I can retire to in about ten years time and in the meantime use for holidays.

    When I started looking some two and a half years ago I was bombarded by people saying ‘now is a great time to buy’, ‘you won’t lose at this price’, etc, etc. It didn’t take me long to realise, thanks to the insights of people such as Logan, that this was bull of the very first order. Also, whilst never having been particularly interested in economics beforehand, I came to realise that in order to get any understanding of a countrys property market you have to develop a basic understanding of the economy supporting it.

    I didn’t buy then and having now built up some knowledge I very much doubt that I will for at least the next year, probably longer. This isn’t because I can’t afford to buy a place or that I will regard any purchase as an investment. I can and I will not. To me it is quite simply a case of getting the most for my money. Lifestyle or not, it strikes me as daft to spend €150k on a place now that I will probably be able to pick up for €130 in eighteen months time. Now I’ll admit that I may be wrong in making this call. Nobody really knows for sure where any market is going. That said, to me, all the fundamentals point to a continued downward slide for some time. I now know that, those with vested interests aside, this is the view of most of those observing the market.

    Let’s face it. The Spanish property market is in a mess largely of its own making. The lack of transparency and non-existent regulation served to fuel a market where chancers, spivs and crooks operated freely. They have left a mess which the rest of us, be they potential vendors, purchasers or those working in the industry, have to try to find our way through.

    I applaud Logan for having the guts to call it as he sees. For providing some balance to all those, be they with vested interests or not, who have been and continue to talk the market up. Long may he continue doing do whatever his detractors say. You may not like what he has to say but he has a right to say it.

  • #103431
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    The Spanish property market is without doubt in for a good tens years worth of gloom. This will be caused by housing over-supply but more so be the grinding and soul-destroying austerity programs that Spain will have to endure as a part of its “internal devaluation” within the context of Europe and the Eurozone.

    This austerity stuff is very real, anyone familiar with the UK can see what’s happening there and there’s no talk of it being the bottom of the market – more reports saying another 20% to come off !

    Nigh on every market report in Spain in the last 6 months has been saying theres another 20-40% to come off prices. That hasnt happened yet. House prices are still unaffordable for many based upon earnings. That drop is still to come and will represent the new baseline in property prices – I very much doubt it will bounce off the bottom, more like limp along for quite some time.

    Property just isnt going to be the investment it once was for quite some time. And good riddance to that !

  • #103432
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’ve run three successful businesses in Spain and bought three houses to live in along the way, over the past 20 years and more. My economic interest is one remaining, tick-over business and one house that I live in.

    Two years ago, I considered selling my house to relocate within Spain, moving south again, but the enormous problems in Malaga province put me off, and that’s where I had started my Spanish journey many years ago.

    I can understand the different viewpoints on this forum, and if they get too personal, which I think we all do at times, the discussion becomes unnecessarily clouded. I speak up for this marvellous country whenever I can, but, property-wise you can’t ignore some of the terrible events from the last ten years or so.

    Even if you come over for the lifestyle and don’t care about making money from your β€˜investment’, it’s useful to know that your home could be bulldozed if it’s illegal and if you’re buying on the CDS, it probably will be. And even if it’s legal now, that could all change tomorrow if the old men in Seville get their way.

  • #103433
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @man in Marbella wrote:

    I still have friends back in London who still have very good jobs and are under no threat of losing their jobs. They think with low interest rates, and property prices very low now is the time to buy with a mortgage (they are buying properties in London before anybody accuses me of being pro Spain). So, for some people I think mortgages can work.

    “Property prices very low now”??? Is this a joke?

  • #91488
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @man in Marbella wrote:
    I still have friends back in London who still have very good jobs and are under no threat of losing their jobs. They think with low interest rates, and property prices very low now is the time to buy with a mortgage (they are buying properties in London before anybody accuses me of being pro Spain). So, for some people I think mortgages can work.

    “Property prices very low now”??? Is this a joke?

    Low compared to Monaco.

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