Eurozone failure and the Spanish property market.

LoadingFavourite

This topic contains 109 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of peterhun peterhun 5 years, 11 months ago.

  • Author
    Posts
  • #56031
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Writing as a Pro-European, and especially Pro-Spanish, I’ve now come to the conclusion that the Euro could fail and wondered how it would affect the Spanish property market.

    My conclusions are that Spanish property prices would go through the roof and immediately so, for the following reasons:

    A return to the Peseta, even at previous levels would double UK spending powers if the pound held steady, and if the Peseta devalued, which seems highly likely, Spanish property would become cheap again.

    More significantly, the resurrected German Mark would make Spanish property cheap as chips for Germans, and historically, Germany and Spain have always had close ties and the former have long regarded it as their favourite holiday and retirement destination. Germany’s reunification has cost the country billions, but is now almost complete, and 90 million people can spend their money elsewhere again.

    On top of that, the Spanish speaking South Americans are flocking to Spain in great numbers now that their own currencies are rising.

    Finally, Spain is a large and empty country, desperate for immigrants; they can easily absorb a few million more and are actively encouraging immigration from suitable countries.

    The messy problems of the past few years will soon fade into memory and the cranes will start swinging again.

    You can’t blame people for wanting to live in paradise, especially if they can afford to.

  • #102033
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    In your dreams 😆

  • #102035
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Rocker wrote:
    The messy problems of the past few years will soon fade into memory and the cranes will start swinging again.

    This will happen anyway in time….Spain will be back to what it was before this recession, as everywhere else will… It has too much going for it that somewhere like the uk will never be able to offer…Sunshine for starters, lovely mediterranean food, relaxed evenings, a laid back lifestyle, a 2 hour flight from the uk, villas with pools, great education for the kids, the list is endless….I personally love Spain, it is after all an amazing country…I am half spanish so know both countries inside out…and, in my opinion, it beats the uk anyday…..

  • #102041
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    You are half spanish and used a UK Lawyer to buy your spanish property 😮

  • #102043
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well spotted Katy. Speaks volume of the Spanish Legal system & its custodians.

  • #102044
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Shakeel, your glass isn’t half full; it’s empty !!! watch kate Perry’s new music video “Fireworks” and get some postive energy in your mind !!! happy holidays and here is to a happy and positive new year !!!!!!!!!! positive thinking brings good things!!!!!!!!!!
    😀 😀 😀

  • #102045
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    UBEDA, my glass is neither half full or half empty. My glass is full of realism. Happy holidays to you & your family enjoy the twelve grapes Y felz nuevo ano.

  • #102046
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The coming festive season made me think of some the foreigners living in my street, a Swedish family, with two Finnish families living in the adjoining two houses. The Swedes go home in the summer, but the Fins stay all year round, one family actually comes from Lapland but they don’t want to know about reindeers.

    Apart from all of them being giants well over six feet tall, one of the women still swims in her pool (unheated) even at this time of the year. She normally goes into her pool in the early evening and a gaggle of Spanish women always walk along the street at that time to watch the spectacle. I couldn’t even put my toe on the water at this time of year.

    Anyway, the turkey, lamb and pork should be arriving tomorrow as the time draws near and there will be thoughts of home on Saturday and Sunday – and today – and tomorrow – and on New Years Eve.

    Feliz Navidad!

  • #102047
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    You are half spanish and used a UK Lawyer to buy your spanish property 😮

    It doesn’t matter what country the laywer came from. Spanish, English, Japanese….The point is I did my homework and used one! One who knew the Spanish law inside out and who could speak fluent Spanish and English so both myself and my husband (who speaks limited Spanish) knew what we were signing for. Anyone else can do exactly the same…I would NEVER dream of buying a property in, say, Greece, without understanding the language and then using a Greek lawyer. I used a british one who has offices in both countries so knows the legal system inside out, and my husband could understand in English, what he was purchasing at the time… I don’t understand what you mean by this anyway to be honest, how is this relevant?… 😮

  • #102048
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    UBEDA wrote:
    positive thinking brings good things!!!!!!!!!!

    nice to hear an optimistic comment on this forum at last….

    Positive things happen to positive people…..

  • #102049
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    A friend of mine used a Legal firm with office’s in London & Marbella. They still screwed it. Its only the threat of taking them to the “Solicitors complaint burueu” in UK made them pay the pesetas 600,000, the amount that was involved.

    The forum users are well aware what would have happened if the “colegio de abagados” would have been involved. Being postive in a enviornment where the system does not work is a folly.

  • #102050
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I wondered about that remark too, and couldn’t understand the ‘well spotted’ at all.

    When my Spanish was at an early stage, I used an English lawyer; when it improved I used a Spanish lawyer and I’ve been using Spanish lawyers ever since.

    Perhaps the references in the previous posts refer to the horrors of Spanish lawyers involved in the many corruption cases well documented on this forum, mostly in Marbella. I abhor those cases like everyone else.

    All those bent lawyers deserve to be brought to justice and I will cheer every time one of them is sent down, along with the other crooks involved.

    But the country is trying hard to move on; the latest penal code specifically focuses on those corrupt officials and recommends that they are sent to prison. What more can Spain, the country, do?

    Getting back to property prices if Spain returns to the Peseta, I read today that the printing presses are already running, all over the Eurozone.

    Any doubters over the outcome on Spanish property prices would surely just need the most basic financial information available – income versus prices. I can’t dumb it down any more.

  • #102053
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @Rocker wrote:

    But the country is trying hard to move on; the latest penal code specifically focuses on those corrupt officials and recommends that they are sent to prison. What more can Spain…………

    Any examples of what Spain has actually done ❓

  • #102054
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The penal code of yesterday.

  • #102070
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    thats laughable. there were already laws to prevent corruption, why will these new laws not be circumvented? no reason at all.

  • #102071
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “What more can Spain, the country, do?”
    For starters, the Government can make an statement acknowledeging the issues, pay Mr & Mrs Priors with any apology by the head of the Junta, take urgent action to retire the judges, lawyers involved in dodgy decesions, beef up & upgrade the colegio de abagado, equalise the descremination agaist a resident & non residents at all level. The last one is very important if Spain wishes to rise above us & them feeling held by the majority.

    The above will be a start & side issues will be self correcting.

  • #102072
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    All of those things are already happening, although I agree that they should have happened years ago. Spain has a problem with its autonomous regions, especially Andalucia in this context, where most of the horrible corruption has taken place.

    The courts are full of those bent officials standing trial and they are building extra prisons to house all those horrible people. The national government has replaced the entire administration at Marbella when they realised what was happening. Far too late, of course.

    But to get back to Spanish house prices. They’ve fallen at least 40% since the recession started, on a par with American house prices, but mostly for different reasons.

    It’s a difficult market to assess because of the high numbers of foreigners distorting it. To try and apply some measure like six times average income is futile because of the outsiders arriving in their millions.

    I did say that if the Eurozone failed, Spanish property prices would explode and I stated my reasons. A wise commentator added that prices would recover in time anyway, with which I agree, but I’m thinking of a Eurozone failure within the next two years, and the result would not just be a recovery, but an upward explosion.

    I have no personal interest in my prediction, I live in Spain and hope to continue living in this country. Of course I still look around, like the rest of us, and I’ve looked around for many years; I sat up earlier today when I watched a programme about Paphos, but I’ve never found anywhere better than here.

  • #102073
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Rocker, I thought we’d put that chestnut of yours to bed a few days ago with the last set of figures and the ensuing thread that quite clearly indicated that foreigners are not buying and havent been doing so for quite some time.

    Prices have not fallen by anything like 40%. I would say its more like 15-25% from peak. Another 20-30% from here will see the market start to move again.

    But anyway, you’ll keep on talking it up 🙂

  • #102086
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    But to get back to Spanish house prices. They’ve fallen at least 40% since the recession started, on a par with American house prices, but mostly for different reasons.

    It’s a difficult market to assess because of the high numbers of foreigners distorting it. To try and apply some measure like six times average income is futile because of the outsiders arriving in their millions.

    I did say that if the Eurozone failed, Spanish property prices would explode and I stated my reasons. A wise commentator added that prices would recover in time anyway, with which I agree, but I’m thinking of a Eurozone failure within the next two years, and the result would not just be a recovery, but an upward explosion.

    The effect of Spain falling out of the Eurozone would be to take down several other countries as well – Ireland in particular.

    And by take down, I mean bank collapses in many countries, Germany included. Without banks to provide lending there will be no property boom but a long term crash throughout the West and maybe in Asia.

    It took Germany a decade to recover from the very high DM and the same will happen again if their currency soars without the PIIGS help. They and other countries like the UK will spend many years buying themselves out of debt and not be interested in a overpriced depreciating asset in a corrupt country like Spain (although holiday visits will be cheap again)

  • #102090
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Rocker, what you mention maybe happening or not !!!. If the Government wanted to send a message . They should have apologised to Mr & Mrs Prior & paid her the compensation. It is a very a high profile case. ( I know things are done very differently in Spain & it does not matter to me as far it is done in a timely, equitable manner )

    I love the Country as much as you do & it hurts me to read & hear what is going on or had gone on. In some ways the current crises has given authorities/bodies to reflect. The proof is to take action urgently & in a transparent & high profile manner.

    Happy new year to you.

  • #102089
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I totally agree with your post. The Prior case was a travesty without excuse. The fact that it was a dispute between Vera council and the ancients in Seville, Conservative versus Socialists, or Nationalists versus Republicans is irrelevant – no modern country should have allowed that to happen.

    Ignoring the awful Prior case, Spain is a new democracy, 35 years old, and still has a hell of a lot to learn.

    And a Happy New Year to you too.

  • #102087
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Ancient in Seville “
    Seville a wonderful city full of ” Senoritos ” and if you are not one, you are a leftist with the only object of the exercise is to mantain the Staus Quo. It always amuses me to see the Cassita in the Feria by the Junta/Ayutamento. Not many people perhaps know that the Junta has it own chalets, very near the Costa del Hospital for the employees of the Junta.
    If you look at the bank’s of the river Quadeqiver i.e. where the port of Seville is situated, behind Aveinda de Palmares. Lying deralict. It could be a gold mine in any other city.

  • #102085
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    @Rocker wrote:
    But to get back to Spanish house prices. They’ve fallen at least 40% since the recession started, on a par with American house prices, but mostly for different reasons.

    It’s a difficult market to assess because of the high numbers of foreigners distorting it. To try and apply some measure like six times average income is futile because of the outsiders arriving in their millions.

    I did say that if the Eurozone failed, Spanish property prices would explode and I stated my reasons. A wise commentator added that prices would recover in time anyway, with which I agree, but I’m thinking of a Eurozone failure within the next two years, and the result would not just be a recovery, but an upward explosion.

    The effect of Spain falling out of the Eurozone would be to take down several other countries as well – Ireland in particular.

    And by take down, I mean bank collapses in many countries, Germany included. Without banks to provide lending there will be no property boom but a long term crash throughout the West and maybe in Asia.

    It took Germany a decade to recover from the very high DM and the same will happen again if their currency soars without the PIIGS help. They and other countries like the UK will spend many years buying themselves out of debt and not be interested in a overpriced depreciating asset in a corrupt country like Spain (although holiday visits will be cheap again)

    Sorry I didn’t reply to your post earlier, I blame Christmas.

    I didn’t say that Spain would fall out of the Eurozone, but rather the Eurozone collapsing altogether. Your point about ‘corrupt’ Spain isn’t well researched, you might get a surprise if you read a bit more.

    I still maintain that after such a possible event (the Eurozone collapse), the currency re-alignment will mean a fantastic demand from the rich Northern Europeans for cheap Spanish property, which started the Spanish property boom in the first place.

    Millions of rich ‘barbarians’ are already knocking at Spain’s gate, laden with money to buy a place in the sun, and there’s a lot more room in this country to accommodate all of them.

    Where else could they go?

  • #102083
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    To add a positive note to doom and gloom, one of my neighbours sold her house just before the xmas holidays, she had it on for 20% lower than the boom price of 2007 and they knocked her down a further 5%. She signed on the dotted line so is now cheering!! It was to a German buyer. I would have rather it been my house that sold, BUT, that is certainly good news as it means people are buying, slowly, but they are buying…My estate agent has informed me that it is a lot of other europeans, non British, who are gradually creeping in looking….so your information is accurate from what I have been told, Brits might not be buying, but other europeans are starting to look at the bargains out there…so lets see if more appear in the next year… fingers crossed…

  • #102084
    Profile photo of zoro
    zoro
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    To add a positive note to doom and gloom, one of my neighbours sold her house just before the xmas holidays, she had it on for 20% lower than the boom price of 2007 and they knocked her down a further 5%. She signed on the dotted line so is now cheering!! It was to a German buyer. I would have rather it been my house that sold, BUT, that is certainly good news as it means people are buying, slowly, but they are buying…My estate agent has informed me that it is a lot of other europeans, non British, who are gradually creeping in looking….so your information is accurate from what I have been told, Brits might not be buying, but other europeans are starting to look at the bargains out there…so lets see if more appear in the next year… fingers crossed…

    ethnatkev

    It would seem you are ideally placed to test this hypothesis that there is an army of eager buyers out there somewhere in the non-periphery Eurozone.

    You now have a benchmark for a price that has been proven and you’ve said you want to sell. If your property is already on the market at that benchmark price and there has been no takers then I’d seriously doubt that they are out there. If on the other hand you are willing to bring it down to the benchmark price and if this army started to make their presence known to you then you would be able to settle this question.

    If you are willing please do come back in a few weeks and update us. I for one would appreciate it.

    Thanks and good luck.

  • #102082
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well to be honest, it is early days for me, I was renting and I have only decided to put it back on the market in the last month or so, at a reduced price of about 30% lower than what it was worth in 2007. And I know december is a bad time to sell anyway. We have done it up inside and modernized it to make it look its best so who knows. It is a difficult one for me though as where I live there are all different houses for sale of all different sizes, so all the prices are different really. These houses have always commanded their own price as they are completely individual, so the only way of getting an idea of pricing is seeing how much the others are selling for and going from there. My house is one of the cheapest for the square metres in this location, I have done this on purpose to entice viewings. My neighbour has had her property for sale for over a year now, and in the last 4 months she only had 3 viewings, and her price wasn’t far off mine. This is what has inticed me to try to put it back on the market again now as a year ago she was having no interest at all, I mean no one was even looking at the larger properties at all, and now suddenly she has started getting viewings, a few, only 3, but some, and for a large property that is good as buyers are more difficult to find. I suppose it is finding that one buyer who likes your property like anything else. I have had one viewing already and my house fitted her budget but she wanted something that looked more contemporary from the outside, but she did say she loved the inside. She never commented on whether the price was not adequate, so it is a case of testing the water and getting feedback. I will keep you posted, but to be honest I am thinking more along the lines of I might have more chance of getting a sale towards the back end of 2011, but it could be longer… I mean very rarely does any property sell within 3 months in spain in a good market….Until the estate agents have put out all the necessary marketing in january, I cannot really tell what will happen. But the fact that someone has sold one a couple of streets down mine, similar to mine, suggests they are starting to look more than they were a few months back. No one is suggesting “an army of eager buyers” that would be a ludicrous thing to suggest in the current market, but things have to start somewhere and “maybe” 2011 may be the starting point. I will also add that my estate agent has noticed more spanish buyers looking than they were, only in the good locations, but the good front line apartments in good condition are selling. The properties that are not getting a look in are the ones down the back streets with not much going for it. She also said (how accurate this is I do not know) that the banks are putting the repos on the market slowly but are keeping back the good ones until they regain some value, so they are only offloading the less desirable properties first. AND they are giving some to a company who deals with rentals so they can rent them out rather than sell them until they can get back their lost money. As I say, I don’t know how accurate this is, but she does have quiete a few contacts.

  • #102092
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    sorry pressed the button twice!

  • #102093
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    Sorry I didn’t reply to your post earlier, I blame Christmas.

    I didn’t say that Spain would fall out of the Eurozone, but rather the Eurozone collapsing altogether. Your point about ‘corrupt’ Spain isn’t well researched, you might get a surprise if you read a bit more.

    The more I read the more I’m convinced that Spain in very corrupt. Evidence for instance the concept of the tax on the ‘true value’ of property as opposed to what you actually paid for it. This is official government policy that assumes corruption in every house purchasable. There are other examples such as Spain simply ignoring EU demands to respect property rights. Didn’t the EU report basically call it corruption?

    @Rocker wrote:

    I still maintain that after such a possible event (the Eurozone collapse), the currency re-alignment will mean a fantastic demand from the rich Northern Europeans for cheap Spanish property, which started the Spanish property boom in the first place.

    Millions of rich ‘barbarians’ are already knocking at Spain’s gate, laden with money to buy a place in the sun, and there’s a lot more room in this country to accommodate all of them.

    Where else could they go?

    They are certainly not buying in Spain, are they? sales to foreigners are down 90% – thats an undisputed fact. The army is down to less than 500 per month, a small battalion instead of an army.

    And where are these rich barbarians getting their money from eh? Not from selling their own homes which are falling in value, nor from any bank as lending for a first house is a serious speculative investment never mind a extra toy home in Spain.

    You are living in a fantasy world.

  • #102094
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    You 2 feel good coolaid salesmen are doing an honorable job of holding back the tide (I commend you for your efforts).

    If you want a really good deal I have a farm/weekend house in Zimbabwe for sale if you are interested. The value is any where from 0 USD to 4,000,000 USD – but I have no takers (bad example I know, but it is a reality that no one in the 21 century would ever have believed possible in their wildest scenario outcomes).

    Ignoring all the idiosyncrasies of the act of purchasing/selling in Spain right now, purchasing as an investment with a time horizon of less than 5-8 years, will be about as much good as property in Zim. If you intend to live here more than 3-4 months of the year then it is a different story. As for a response as to where else people go to buy, heck the mildly richer are buying in Cape Town and Dubai. You get on the plane in the evening and arrive the next morning, and everything is cheaper and the weather is a lot better!

    The history of bubbles is normally clear cut – the asset that takes you up, never is the one that takes you back up in the next cycle.

  • #102095
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    kgpoc wrote:
    You 2 feel good coolaid salesmen are doing an honorable job of holding back the tide (I commend you for your efforts).

    what the hell are you going on about? does it bother you that someone has actually managed to sell a property in Spain. I am just merely telling you someone has sold a property, I am not trying to sell you mine or to sell you Spain for that matter!

    Or maybe you are looking to buy yourself and are waiting for everyone to give their property away for nothing so you can grab a bargain!

    I am telling you it as it is, someone has sold a property end of. Good news in my book, why the negativity?

    Yes, awful things have happened to people and the market is bad, WE KNOW!! you all keep on reminding us on a daily basis, but I don’t understand why everyone on here just jumps on any good news and puts it down. Other vetted interests I assume…

    It is rather starting to annoy me that 90% of people on here who never have 1 good word to say about Spain are actually wanting to buy there…why would you want to buy somewhere that is THAT corrupt? I just don’t understand….Forget about spain and buy in Dubai then, you are on the wrong forum for that though!…And before you deny your intents of eventually buying or selling, I don’t believe it or you wouldn’t be on here. You are either buying or selling or an estate agent, or bored!

    are you buying or selling kgpoc…. I wonder….

  • #102096
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    Down boy!!! I didn’t mean to insult, truly, so I will not hide behind a probable bashing profile!

    I am quite simply a buyer, but funnily I was a buyer 5 years ago when I came to Spain (my wife and child are Spanish, so bashing Spain does not serve me well). When I came visiting with my fiancée in 2002 we looked at one of the most extravagantly built apartment blocks in the town where we live (her home town in Burgos), the price was 260,000 for 140sqm, top floor, top of the line, 5% down 30 year, low interest rates. I thought a steal, her whole family said way too expensive. We arrived to live in 2005 the same apartment sold for 400,000 and the whole family now said it was priced right. This seem illogical, I am an analyst, so I did some research, and found this gem of a website to help me understand something that I thought was broken. Apart from good advice I have read here, I have also found expert people within their fields and will not hesitate to use, and just generally good people (one helped me move some furniture from England to here). Invaluable! And I get humor, Rocker is close to being my favorite..

    from 2005 till now, we rented. Something again, my extended family in Spain said no one does you must buy. Over the years of 2005 – 2007 I managed to dissuade 2 brother-in-laws from make disastrous new apartment buying decisions from insight gained from this website (because the realitors, nor bankers, nor Spanish press, nor Spanish gov give you the pertinent information – I challenge anyone to prove me wrong on this). Mark needs to monetize some of this value, it would be tough but profitable.

    Now, after a few years in BCN and back here, I live in that same apartment described above and pay rent of 600 including the parking space underneath.. The guy brought at 400,000 in 2005 and earns 6000 a year (ROI 1.5%), that is not even half of his cost per month, he cannot sell it or afford to live in it. That is to say, even if a price has rolled back to 2005 (which in terms of valuation we are not, it is still not a ‘good investment’ even if bank financing demands were back to 0 down, 30 year, even for me living here. The prices quite literally have to go back to 2002-2003. Will it get there, doubt it, will I bite the bullet or use more Vaseline? Yes, but the economics are still not there.

  • #102098
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @kgpoc wrote:

    I am quite simply a buyer, ……………I already guessed that much…….

    The prices quite literally have to go back to 2002-2003. Will it get there, doubt it, will I bite the bullet or use more Vaseline? Yes, but the economics are still not there.

    Just an example: Would you sell a property you purchased for 400.000euros for 200.000euros, with a 400.000 mortgage and end up owing the bank for the rest of your life? Or would you hang on to it?
    I think it would be the latter….and so do most stubborn spanish trying to sell…

    If you can’t afford to hang on to it, you get repossesed….and what the banks are doing with the repos is offloading the garbage and keeping hold of the good ones until it picks up….or they are renting out the ones with potential to cover their downfall costs and then will offload them when prices start rising, eventually…

    so if you are after bargains, don’t expect to bag one that will ever be worth more than a 2002 price…

    Hence my sources telling me that the good ones for sale do sell, at a reduced price but not at a 2002 price…

    this vicious circle could go on forever…..buyers are waiting for sellers to drop their prices, sellers are waiting for buyers to buy, banks are repossessing and keeping hold of the good ones and renting them to cover their costs and selling off the ones no one wants anyway, at huge discount prices…

  • #102100
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “my wife and ……., so bashing Spain does not serve me well “
    Very wise of you to not to go down this route. How many people outside Spain know the very strong personality that Spanish women have. A lady by the name of Isabel Catholica of Castiile comes to mind.

    “her home town in Burgos” I cant beleive that a property in Burgos can be priced at €400,000. A town full of Nuns & other members of the Opus, than again they are in control of most of the banks.

    Say, hello to the “Senior Tostados ” when you visit the Cathederal of Burgos next time. .

  • #102101
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “buyers are waiting for sellers to drop their prices, sellers are waiting for buyers to buy, banks are repossessing and keeping hold of the good ones and renting them to cover their costs and selling off the ones no one wants anyway, at huge discount prices…”

    Indeed. That is why good properties in good locations have not gone done. I have targeted a few areas in CDS, Costa de la Luz and have not come across them. Lets see where & when it pans out

  • #102102
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    In my original post I hoped to start a debate on what would happen to Spanish property prices if the Eurozone collapsed and countries went back to their old currencies. The Eurosceptics popped up and argued that property prices would fall, fair enough considering their obvious dislike of Spain, but downright silly as usual.

    Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, but like all the others, is hampered by its inability to re-value its currency. Germany, the biggest exporter, is similarly disadvantaged by an ever-increasing Euro.

    There is no doubt that the next year, almost upon us, will be a difficult one, with debt mountains, austerity cuts and rising unemployment. The US, the perennial elephant in the room is printing Dollars as though there was no tomorrow and our own panic-stricken coalition has just had to borrow the most money per month our country ever borrowed before.

    I might bury my head in the sand for a year.

  • #102103
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I am not a Euro sceptic nor have a dislike for Spain. Fouth largest economy in Spain !!!!!!!!!!! so who is the 5th, 6th ???? Once you have established this it will put the 4th in some context. 4th biggest economy in the world in by book deserve respect in economic terms.

  • #102104
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @Rocker wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:
    @Rocker wrote:

    Millions of rich ‘barbarians’ are already knocking at Spain’s gate, laden with money to buy a place in the sun, and there’s a lot more room in this country to accommodate all of them.Where else could they go?

    Surely the silliest statement of the year, where is Charlie with her emoticons when you need her :mrgreen:

    There was never a demand for all those properties as far back as 2002, many were just buying them to flip.

    I really think a few of you have been taking a dose of optimism with you Christmas tipple 😀

  • #102105
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    In my original post I hoped to start a debate on what would happen to Spanish property prices if the Eurozone collapsed and countries went back to their old currencies. The Eurosceptics popped up and argued that property prices would fall, fair enough considering their obvious dislike of Spain, but downright silly as usual.

    Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, but like all the others, is hampered by its inability to re-value its currency. Germany, the biggest exporter, is similarly disadvantaged by an ever-increasing Euro.

    I’d say its you that’s silly in your inability to see the effects of a Spanish devaluation. First, Spain would fall down in the list of ‘size of countries economies’ and second German’s exports – and its economy – would crash with the rise of the New Euro.
    I’ve already explained that crashed banks around the world will no longer lend to anyone, for anything, but you aren’t listening are you?

  • #102106
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    ethnatkev, the standoff wont continue indefinitely. the silver bullet will be interest rates or another liquidity crisis. the odds are stacked against sellers by quite some margin, meanwhile buyers can save money by renting one of the many bargains available in the rental pool, which are yielding owners a crumby 2%.

  • #102107
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Two birds with one stone? I’m merely trying to reply to the last two posts, with no animosity whatsoever.

    “Silliest remark ever; Spain is corrupt; why don’t you listen?”

    Personal remarks like that are of no value in any discussion about anything. The UKIP man foaming at the mouth hasn’t got a clue why Jimmy Goldsmith, a brilliant financier I admire greatly, started the party.

    There, I’ve fallen into the trap, I’ve got too personal, but I can redeem myself, hopefully, by merely saying that we should not allow our prejudices get into the way of an interesting discussion concerning matters close to our hearts.

    We wouldn’t be on here otherwise, would we?

  • #102108
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    The UKIP man foaming at the mouth hasn’t got a clue why Jimmy Goldsmith, a brilliant financier I admire greatly, started the party.

    Hang about Rocker, me old cocker, I take it that I am the UKIP man?

    Foaming???

  • #102109
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    It does quite sadden me. I have been reading through various different posts on here and other forums. A lot imply that the market isn’t yet moving due to “stubborn sellers” who won’t reduce the price. Do you blame them though?? Most of them purchased in the boom, so never got a bargain anyway, and now face selling their home at a loss to then have to owe the banks money for years to come…. I personally would not and could not afford to drop the price. If it doesn’t sell, I will continue with rentals until it picks up and a lot of people I speak to are saying the same. I would not wish that on anyone. It is happening to people I know in Spain and it is a horrible situation to be in.
    José Blanco, El ministro de Fomento, said that (roughly translated) “the housing and land is one of the main problems that needs looking into for economic recovery,” and recalled that the administration, financial and real estate sector will join forces to tackle this problem early next year He also said that “any solution must serve to further boost the restructuring of our financial sector to return to provide credit to productive sectors and families,” so there will be easier credit to aid sales and also they will be looking into helping sellers renegotiate their mortgages to avoid losing their properties… So they are starting to do something at least..hopefully, if there is an increase in interest rates or something similar, a renegotation can take place to help sellers hold on to their properties for as long as possible.

  • #102110
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    It does quite sadden me. I have been reading through various different posts on here and other forums. A lot imply that the market isn’t yet moving due to “stubborn sellers” who won’t reduce the price. Do you blame them though?? Most of them purchased in the boom, so never got a bargain anyway, and now face selling their home at a loss to then have to owe the banks money for years to come…. I personally would not and could not afford to drop the price. If it doesn’t sell, I will continue with rentals until it picks up and a lot of people I speak to are saying the same. I would not wish that on anyone. It is happening to people I know in Spain and it is a horrible situation to be in.

    Im sorry, but I dont think anyone should have believed the nonsense that house prices can continue to rise YoY inperpetuity. The reality is that housing markets bubbled, many of us saw the bubble and steered clear, were not going to bail out those who jumped into the bubble… why should we? we buyers are not charities either. in the same token, dont sell if you dont need to, nothing lost.

    Also one point, you suggest that most people purchased at the height of the boom. this really isnt true, not even close to being true. there are plenty of vendors who purchased 10-20 years ago and can reduce by a substantial amount. same goes for brits who purchased with large deposit during the strong pround versus euro time, they can reduce by large percentages without taking a hit in pounds.

    there is an expectation by some that selling a property will always yield a profit, but i think if you stop and think for a second you’ll agree thats an unreaslistic expectation, prices just dont keep rising and rising forever.

  • #102111
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    Also one point, you suggest that most people purchased at the height of the boom. this really isnt true, not even close to being true. there are plenty of vendors who purchased 10-20 years ago and can reduce by a substantial amount. same goes for brits who purchased with large deposit during the strong pround versus euro time, they can reduce by large percentages without taking a hit in pounds.

    but, if these people purchased years ago, why the urge to sell now? why not just hang on to their properties. The reason I assume a large percentage are people who purchased in the boom is because they are the ones with the large mortgage who can’t afford to keep up repayments, hence having to sell desperately and reduce their prices.

    there is an expectation by some that selling a property will always yield a profit, but i think if you stop and think for a second you’ll agree thats an unreaslistic expectation, prices just dont keep rising and rising forever.[/quote]
    I don’t think anyone is expecting a profit of any kind, I imagine a good 90% just want to break even so they don’t owe the bank…. or even worse get repossesed…

    I purchased in 2006 and I was lucky in that my property needed a complete refurb so I purchased it a lot lower than what it would have been on had it been in a good condition. I just could not afford a done up one at the time. And now that you can deduct certain expenses from your taxes when it comes to holiday lets, that helps a great deal to cover costs for rentals. As opposed to a flat 24%. So if things don’t improve I may well have to wait.

    But I know people who have not been so fortunate and I do not blame them at all for what has happened to them. I blame the banks giving them the loans for the mortgage in the first place. You must remember in 2007 prices were high, but so was income, so it was easy to get led into it. You certainly weren’t getting no bargain back then either. I don’t think anyone in those days purchased assuming they were going to make loads of money as prices were high enough as it is.
    I purchased in 2006 as I had a large family and to be honest, needed the space, business was booming, and, if you have never experienced a recession first hand, you don’t think about it as naive as it may sound. And then for personal circumstances out of my control we had to return to the uk. We did try to sell end of 2007 but that is when the crisis began. So not good timing really. So please don’t assume people should have been aware of the bubble. Trust me, it did not even cross most peoples mind. Not day to day people anyway with busy jobs and children. And because in Spain good money was being made, you could afford the mortgages the banks were offering. The sellers are not the ones who deserve to be punished because they purchased in the bubble.
    Circumstances have changed and unfortunately the sellers have to live with it now and hope it will bottom out sooner rather than later.
    I am sure you will disagree and say people deserve it if they purchased in a naive manner, but you don’t know each individuals circumstances at the time.
    Just try to put yourself in sellers shoes for a minute and you may understand.

  • #102112
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I would urge any sellers to wait at least another year if they are able to. I’m afraid that my reasons are connected to a political debate taking place far away from Spain, but very relevant to the Spanish property market. I’m not that fond of posting link after link, but sometimes we need to consider the wider picture:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,736680,00.html

    If Germany stops supporting the Euro, it is bound to fail, and the majority of German people want their Mark back in the same way that the majority of British people want to keep their pound Sterling.

    There is not nearly the same enthusiasm in Spain for a return of the Peseta, some see it as a reminder of repressive government in the recent past. A devalued Euro would suit them just as well.

    Perhaps if a complete break-up of the Euro is avoided, a two-tier Euro will take its place – the Olive Euro for the southern states (including France), and a Northern Euro for the others.

    I can’t see that as a sensible solution, it would surely be easier for people just to wake up one morning to be told that their old currency was back in use, with the Euro being phased out completely over the next year or so.

    Logic tells me that any of the solutions mentioned are bound to benefit Spain which is badly in need of a currency devaluation to kick start both its construction industry and the ailing housing market. And tourism will return with a vengeance.

  • #102113
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    @adiep wrote:

    Also one point, you suggest that most people purchased at the height of the boom. this really isnt true, not even close to being true. there are plenty of vendors who purchased 10-20 years ago and can reduce by a substantial amount. same goes for brits who purchased with large deposit during the strong pround versus euro time, they can reduce by large percentages without taking a hit in pounds.

    but, if these people purchased years ago, why the urge to sell now? why not just hang on to their properties. The reason I assume a large percentage are people who purchased in the boom is because they are the ones with the large mortgage who can’t afford to keep up repayments, hence having to sell desperately and reduce their prices.

    there is an expectation by some that selling a property will always yield a profit, but i think if you stop and think for a second you’ll agree thats an unreaslistic expectation, prices just dont keep rising and rising forever.

    I don’t think anyone is expecting a profit of any kind, I imagine a good 90% just want to break even so they don’t owe the bank…. or even worse get repossesed…

    I purchased in 2006 and I was lucky in that my property needed a complete refurb so I purchased it a lot lower than what it would have been on had it been in a good condition. I just could not afford a done up one at the time. And now that you can deduct certain expenses from your taxes when it comes to holiday lets, that helps a great deal to cover costs for rentals. As opposed to a flat 24%. So if things don’t improve I may well have to wait.

    But I know people who have not been so fortunate and I do not blame them at all for what has happened to them. I blame the banks giving them the loans for the mortgage in the first place. You must remember in 2007 prices were high, but so was income, so it was easy to get led into it. You certainly weren’t getting no bargain back then either. I don’t think anyone in those days purchased assuming they were going to make loads of money as prices were high enough as it is.
    I purchased in 2006 as I had a large family and to be honest, needed the space, business was booming, and, if you have never experienced a recession first hand, you don’t think about it as naive as it may sound. And then for personal circumstances out of my control we had to return to the uk. We did try to sell end of 2007 but that is when the crisis began. So not good timing really. So please don’t assume people should have been aware of the bubble. Trust me, it did not even cross most peoples mind. Not day to day people anyway with busy jobs and children. And because in Spain good money was being made, you could afford the mortgages the banks were offering. The sellers are not the ones who deserve to be punished because they purchased in the bubble.
    Circumstances have changed and unfortunately the sellers have to live with it now and hope it will bottom out sooner rather than later.
    I am sure you will disagree and say people deserve it if they purchased in a naive manner, but you don’t know each individuals circumstances at the time.
    Just try to put yourself in sellers shoes for a minute and you may understand.
    [/quote]

    There’s not a great deal of rationalizing that can be done to explain why people paid huge multiples of salary for 2-3 bedroom apartments, it was just plain bonkers and no matter how much empathy I employ, i’ll just never understand it. People have a duty to protect themselves from their environment, that includes steering clear of irresponsible lending, or from extending themselves beyond their ability to pay back debts if their circumstances change. That is the purchasers responsibility, always. You cant have it all ways, take a profit if prices rise but not take a loss if they drop.

    Clearly, those who dont need to sell wont be affected in quite the same way, but those who threw all caution aside honestly dont deserve much sympathy.

    Of course the banks have responsibilities, but I think you’ll find those responsibilities are geared toward shareholders – many of whom have now been seriously burnt and seen their investments hit. That is the way of the market, how can it be any other way? Communism?

  • #102114
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    adiep wrote:
    There’s not a great deal of rationalizing that can be done to explain why people paid huge multiples of salary for 2-3 bedroom apartments, it was just plain bonkers and no matter how much empathy I employ, i’ll just never understand it. People have a duty to protect themselves from their environment, that includes steering clear of irresponsible lending, or from extending themselves beyond their ability to pay back debts if their circumstances change. That is the purchasers responsibility, always. You cant have it all ways, take a profit if prices rise but not take a loss if they drop.
    quote]

    A few years back we were all brian washed into believing property was the way to invest, it was on tv, 24/7. Younger people who had never lived a recession never thought your property could be worth 50% of the value it was worth when you purchased it. Even older people did not forsee this from happening.
    Not everyone has a degree in analyzing the property market. Call it naive, whatever, but the fact of the matter is not everyone sits there reading forums like this or studying the economy when purchasing a property. I know all the people who were caught out now will do in the future, but that is how you learn in life my making mistakes.
    I am sure you must have made a few in your lifetime aswell, unless you are perfect of course!
    You can’t judge people because you think the way you do things is the right way. People make mistakes and they learn by them. I even paid a big deposit towards my property as they would not give me 100% mortgage. Just as well as my mortgage is lower than it would have been. But the banks were giving out 100% mortgages to anyone back then. I paid for a good lawyer but no one told me this was going to happen. I did not borrow over my means, I could afford that times 2 back in those days.

    We are all human and learn by mistakes and experiences, you may analyze the market, not everyone does, and the only ones who will in the future are the unfortunate ones who have been caught out.
    No one expects their property to drop by 50% or even 70% in value, I quote 70% as this is the figure I have heard mentioned on here if you want property prices to go back to year 2000. So I completely disagree, you can’t blame sellers for being stubborn and wanting to hang in there, and I for one, feel VERY sorry for those who are being caught out.

  • #102115
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    I would urge any sellers to wait at least another year if they are able to. I’m afraid that my reasons are connected to a political debate taking place far away from Spain, but very relevant to the Spanish property market. I’m not that fond of posting link after link, but sometimes we need to consider the wider picture:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,736680,00.html

    If Germany stops supporting the Euro, it is bound to fail, and the majority of German people want their Mark back in the same way that the majority of British people want to keep their pound Sterling.

    There is not nearly the same enthusiasm in Spain for a return of the Peseta, some see it as a reminder of repressive government in the recent past. A devalued Euro would suit them just as well.

    Perhaps if a complete break-up of the Euro is avoided, a two-tier Euro will take its place – the Olive Euro for the southern states (including France), and a Northern Euro for the others.

    I can’t see that as a sensible solution, it would surely be easier for people just to wake up one morning to be told that their old currency was back in use, with the Euro being phased out completely over the next year or so.

    Logic tells me that any of the solutions mentioned are bound to benefit Spain which is badly in need of a currency devaluation to kick start both its construction industry and the ailing housing market. And tourism will return with a vengeance.

    A revaluation up or down will not be be painless with the loss of the Euro. The banks in both countrys (German and Spain) will be bankrupted because their overseas debt will not be denominated in the new currency, vastly increasing the amount for Spain and making significant loses for Germany. And I don’t think it will be an orderly crash either; 30% is what is needed but panic will make it more.
    There are many (initially hidden) costs of a devaluation – first is inflation as imports push up costs. Then jobs are lost. Bank lending in Spain will fall even further. Germany will be royally ****ed as well, with their exports collapsing (as happened in 2008 when they were one of the worst affected countries) and massive job loses.

    For these reasons, I believe that Spain will not be allowed to default regardless of the cost to Germany. The Euro will survive. But forget the worlds economy recovering in a year, it will be five maybe more years before the recovery.

    The world splurged on debt, made possible by the invention of Mortgage backed securities. These have now been shown to non functional. They allowed the world to take on debt at levels not seen since 1929 (and infact exceed that peak by 50%).

    It took 70 years for the world to get back to that level of debt. I cannot see it happened again for decades, unless someone can invent another way of maying risk disappear; maybe a Money Tree or a Golden Goose.

    No credit manufacturing means falling house prices everywhere – until the mortgages are paid off in a decade.

    edit:
    All thats ignoring the effect of Basel III forcing banks to lend at half the levels they did just before the crash..

  • #102116
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    In the 20’s, many leveraged debt on the stock market, i.e. use $100 to leverage $10000, this had the same effect on stocks (huge rises) as we’ve seen today with house prices, it’s essentially the same deal. Mortgages have been used to massively leverage small investments (deposits) in housing. Now the “margin calls” coming back in the form of interest rates, these rates wont be held down, the sovereign bond markets have seen to that, periphery governments cannot borrow at below 5%, these rates will be passed on either through taxation (austerity), or direct interest rates as money becomes scarce, anyone highly leveraged will be in a pretty bad position. Germany and France are not coming to the rescue any time soon, they have seen what low borrowing does to the periphery, it suits them for it to remain at market levels as it will instill its own form of fiscal discipline.

  • #102117
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    @adiep wrote:
    There’s not a great deal of rationalizing that can be done to explain why people paid huge multiples of salary for 2-3 bedroom apartments, it was just plain bonkers and no matter how much empathy I employ, i’ll just never understand it. People have a duty to protect themselves from their environment, that includes steering clear of irresponsible lending, or from extending themselves beyond their ability to pay back debts if their circumstances change. That is the purchasers responsibility, always. You cant have it all ways, take a profit if prices rise but not take a loss if they drop.
    quote]

    A few years back we were all brian washed into believing property was the way to invest, it was on tv, 24/7. Younger people who had never lived a recession never thought your property could be worth 50% of the value it was worth when you purchased it. Even older people did not forsee this from happening.
    Not everyone has a degree in analyzing the property market. Call it naive, whatever, but the fact of the matter is not everyone sits there reading forums like this or studying the economy when purchasing a property. I know all the people who were caught out now will do in the future, but that is how you learn in life my making mistakes.
    I am sure you must have made a few in your lifetime aswell, unless you are perfect of course!
    You can’t judge people because you think the way you do things is the right way. People make mistakes and they learn by them. I even paid a big deposit towards my property as they would not give me 100% mortgage. Just as well as my mortgage is lower than it would have been. But the banks were giving out 100% mortgages to anyone back then. I paid for a good lawyer but no one told me this was going to happen. I did not borrow over my means, I could afford that times 2 back in those days.

    We are all human and learn by mistakes and experiences, you may analyze the market, not everyone does, and the only ones who will in the future are the unfortunate ones who have been caught out.
    No one expects their property to drop by 50% or even 70% in value, I quote 70% as this is the figure I have heard mentioned on here if you want property prices to go back to year 2000. So I completely disagree, you can’t blame sellers for being stubborn and wanting to hang in there, and I for one, feel VERY sorry for those who are being caught out.

    I’m sorry, but you are ignoring the masses of people who thought they would make a quick buck flipping off-plan “investments”. Many of these sales were for second homes or pure investment, people released equity from their own home to buy a second property, under the assumption that prices would keep rising. If they thought prices would stay static, they’d likely not have purchased.

    I have the same amount of empathy for these people as I have for those who blew money at the casino or on the stock markets. Im not judging them on anything other than their ability to see a very poor investment.

    And really, I dont see you crying for all those shareholders in RBS who have lost far more than 70%. Why are these property gamblers and speculators any different?

  • #102118
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    ethnatkev – I do feel your pain, I would have jumped in around 2005 for good reasons too, but lucky I had visited a few years earlier when the market and sentiment was completely different.

    Lets go through the points;
    Tea party movement.. In the US, for all the hype around the tea party movement, nothing has come out of it! May be incumbents lost elections but the tea party movements own elected people had to decide when in the senate or congress, I either play with left part or right party or you become ineffective and not re-elected. So tea party idealism is irrelevant.
    Greece/Ireland/Portugal (bottom of the pile looking up) – The governments have not fallen, only the UK Gov fell. Even the opposition in the PIIGS are not able to capitalize because like Obama you are inheriting such a mess you might get voted in for 1 term and find out it is worse than published, they might not give you a second chance for 20 years, so a big gamble. Unusually the UK Gov that got in power got in saying we are going to cut brutally, they did not lie, but what can a new PIIG Gov say – I am going to make life easier, there is no such option.
    Germany (top looking down) – have gotten onto a winning hand with the Europe. In the beginning of the Euro, the Mark was the strongest currency, Germany was going into a recession partially due to the weight of a 2 speed country East and West. The Euro immediately devalued their currency, making their workers more competitive giving them an easy way to deal with East Germany. Germany will not go any where.
    IMF (wild card) – The IMF has been brought it on all deals, pay close attention to them – no reserve bank or ECB can deal with a country suspended from the Euro, so the IMF will be the organization that will invent a mechanism for this but it will be back by all reserve banks, etc
    Euro – in my opinion the euro will get stronger, contrarian. The ECB cannot print like the US, German puppet bankers at the ECB will not allow crazy inflation. Finally, politicians do not want to loose face, not a German nor a Spanish because the first one to say this whole thing was a mistake, will be ostracized and make the remaining politicians closer bed mates. Kind of like a finance minister telling the truth of the budget shortfalls provisions, it never happens.

  • #102119
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @kgpoc wrote:

    Unusually the UK Gov that got in power got in saying we are going to cut brutally, they did not lie, but what can a new PIIG Gov say – I am going to make life easier, there is no such option.

    It should be pointed out that the coalition has not cut anything yet, they have increased spending.

  • #102120
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    THE EURO IS HERE TO STAY THATS CERTAIN

  • #102121
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    To follow on from some well-argued comments, I believe if the Euro survives the next two years, it could well stay and become the world’s reserve currency instead of the increasingly shaky US Dollar. But the next year especially will be the make-or-break time for the Euro.

    The bail-outs which have already taken place are being challenged in the German Constitutional courts, the highest in the land. Local elections in Germany due next year could well bring down the Conservative/Liberal coalition, and if Cable and Huhne get together the same thing could happen in the UK.

    Spain seems to be the referee in the Eurozone, they are too big to be allowed to fail, but also too big to be rescued. The stability pact is not due to take effect until 2013, three long years away, and anything can happen in the meantime.

    Nobody has really mentioned France much in the context of the Eurozone’s problems, but it’s also one of the bigger players and completely unpredictable, in my view. The country’s people were the first to embrace the industrial revolution, and went to extremes in guillotining their leaders in full public view.

    They are always the first to take to the streets in present-day Europe too, and if they fall out with their mighty German neighbours, that will mean the end of the Euro too.

    The clock is ticking and my twelve grapes are in the fridge, waiting for me.

  • #102122
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    Nobody has really mentioned France much in the context of the Eurozone’s problems, but it’s also one of the bigger players and completely unpredictable, in my view. The country’s people were the first to embrace the industrial revolution, and went to extremes in guillotining their leaders in full public view.

    The industrial revolution started in the UK and I’d say Germany and the USA were quicker getting industrialised than France.
    Not that its relevant, you do have an odd turn of phrase.

  • #102124
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I apologise if my odd turn of phrase caused confusion. I was saying that the French are more prone to public disorder than the rest of Europe, especially the respectable Germans whose demonstrations consist of orderly lines of people blowing whistles, or the Brits who have long hunger marches instead of wishing to cut off their Monarchs heads.

    It’s that great variety of the different countries of Europe which has led to the lack of cohesion when it comes to acting together for the collective good. You can’t have a successful common currency if the French retire at 60 and the Brits at 66, increasing upwards as we write.

    One in six of us are now going to get the Queen’s telegram, truly frightening statistics for politicians who are struggling to fund the pensions of people dying 20 years earlier.

    Off topic? Not really, the Eurozone countries may well be too diverse in their native customs to act together without the national interest getting in the way.

    It’s human nature.

  • #102127
    Profile photo of zoro
    zoro
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    No one is suggesting “an army of eager buyers” that would be a ludicrous thing to suggest in the current market, but things have to start somewhere and “maybe” 2011 may be the starting point.

    You are quite right of course, it is a ludicrous suggestion. I was paraphrasing (and toning down I thought) an earlier posting which was:

    @Rocker wrote:

    Millions of rich ‘barbarians’ are already knocking at Spain’s gate, laden with money to buy a place in the sun, and there’s a lot more room in this country to accommodate all of them.

    I think it is clear to any potential purchaser, of which I am one, that the very, very best I could hope for, is that prices will remain static for the next four or five years. A more likely scenario is that prices will drop further e.g. by 10 or 20% throughout 2011 before they level out. The worst scenario (if the US e.g. Florida, or Irish experience happens to Spain) is that prices will fall through the floor to where prices are 50-60% lower from their peak. This is what will happen if the spanish banks are forced to unload their housing stock in order to maintain liquidity, a real possibility if the ECB withdraw their current support and which they have said they are very very keen to do.

    I do not want to buy as an investment but for personal use, however if my personal circumstances were to change and I needed to sell in a hurry I could be facing a very large loss indeed.
    That thought is what makes me wait until either prices reflect those risks or the danger has passed. Meanwhile prospective sellers naturally don’t want to sell at those lower prices hence the market is practically at a standstill. Pity the poor seller who has no choice but to sell now.

  • #102128
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Surely we are all agreed that this is not a time to buy a property in Spain, or anywhere else for that matter. But that shouldn’t be a problem for anyone wishing to come to Spain. The rental market here is entirely different to the one in the UK, you can rent a property with total safety, anywhere and for any length of time.

    You can rent a city apartment, a house by the sea or a lonely finca if you wish, and live there for the rest of your life, without worrying about property prices ever again. The rents are much cheaper than even the best mortgage deals on the market.

    Unfortunately I can’t suggest what to do with your property in the UK, or the money in your bank account, those matters are still in the hands of our bankers and politicians.

    And instead of trusting any of them, you might as well fly to Las Vegas and try your luck on the Strip.

  • #102129
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    It may not be a good time to buy in spain if you are looking to make money on the property, that goes without saying. But if it is for a long term investment, then in 2011 it could be a good time to start looking. Some of you say you have been waiting since 2005 or before to buy and have been renting. All those payments in rent also add up and is money flushed down the toilet. If you have been paying say 500euros in rent that is 6000 euros per annum and 30.000euros for 5 years, plus the rest if you are still contemplating on renting. So that is something to bear in mind, you also have lost all that money. Just another way of looking at things.
    I would certainly not suggest to anyone to buy a 2nd home for luxury right now until everyone is certain. But if you are looking for a home, there are some very good deals to be had. And the good ones will not drop in value as much as the rubbish ones, and the good ones will be the first to sell, unless you are not bothered where your property is based of course. If you are prepared to wait another 5 years for things to drop, that is your decision, but it will also be costing you 30.000 euros plus over the next 5 years in rent and you will be paying off someone elses debt/mortgage for them. So ultimately you will be aiding a seller to get through this recession. Which is great for sellers of course. But if I were looking to buy I would be looking in a good location towards the back end of 2011. And if I had sold my house by then, that will be something I would certainly be looking into myself.

  • #102130
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    It may not be a good time to buy in spain if you are looking to make money on the property, that goes without saying. But if it is for a long term investment, then in 2011 it could be a good time to start looking. Some of you say you have been waiting since 2005 or before to buy and have been renting. All those payments in rent also add up and is money flushed down the toilet. If you have been paying say 500euros in rent that is 6000 euros per annum and 30.000euros for 5 years, plus the rest if you are still contemplating on renting. So that is something to bear in mind, you also have lost all that money. Just another way of looking at things.

    Paying rent is is only half the money flushed down the toilet in interest payments. Having a mortgage in a falling market allows you leverage your losses and the first loss is your deposit. If it makes you feel better then please go ahead and believe your argument but buyers are certainly not falling for that are they?

  • #102131
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Paying rent is is only half the money flushed down the toilet in interest payments. Having a mortgage in a falling market allows you leverage your losses and the first loss is your deposit. If it makes you feel better then please go ahead and believe your argument but buyers are certainly not falling for that are they?

    Who said anything about an argument! I don’t expect anyone to fall for anything, I am merely pointing out my views on the matter, it is up to you what you do! You can sit and wait 10 years to buy if you want… 99% of british buyers aren’t looking to buy in spain and this will stay this way for years to come…People will start buying at some point and all I am saying is when they do, the good properties will be the first to go, (as much as you are in denial, the good properties are selling, slowly but they are selling…)the rubbish ones will sit around for 10 years, so you will find a property when you decide to purchase, whether it be a prime location one or down a back street…

    I do appear to be the only seller on this forum which I find bizarre considering there are so many sellers out there! Is there not one person on here looking to sell? it would be great to hear opinions from both buyers and sellers… maybe we should rename the site as “looking to buy in spain..”

  • #102132
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    If I were wanting to move to Spain now I would rent out the UK house and rent in Spain. I don’t think the euro will fail. As for what to do with your spare money, the uk. stock market has been good for small investors this year.

    The spanish property market will never recover to what it was in 2002. Sales may improve but it will be steady gains of only a few per cent rises in prices for years.

  • #102133
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    If I were wanting to move to Spain now I would rent out the UK house and rent in Spain. I don’t think the euro will fail. As for what to do with your spare money, the uk. stock market has been good for small investors this year.

    The spanish property market will never recover to what it was in 2002. Sales may improve but it will be steady gains of only a few per cent rises in prices for years.

    so you are saying that it will NEVER recover from what prices were in 2002.. wow, bold statement to make, lets watch this space….

  • #102134
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    No you misunderstood. Sales will never reach the heady days of the last boom. Because of the huge property surplus property will rise very slowly over a decade.

  • #102135
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    my apologies, I do agree with you.

  • #102136
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    I do appear to be the only seller on this forum which I find bizarre considering there are so many sellers out there! Is there not one person on here looking to sell? it would be great to hear opinions from both buyers and sellers… maybe we should rename the site as “looking to buy in spain..”

    Spainish Property Insight doesn’t suggest buyers or sellers does it? The title of this thread is about the potential for Spain if the Euro fails, again a mere intellectual discussion.

    I am not a potential buyer for 4-10 years, there is no rush, nothing is going to change for years.

  • #102137
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Spainish Property Insight doesn’t suggest buyers or sellers does it?

    You are completely right…I only pointed out that I have not heard an opinion from one seller as of yet, only buyers.
    It would be nice to hear sellers opinions, also…
    So ultimately the only ones having this “intelectual discussion” is a bunch of buyers, hence me suggesting the name should be changed to “looking to purchase in spain…”

  • #102138
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    It may not be a good time to buy in spain if you are looking to make money on the property, that goes without saying. But if it is for a long term investment, then in 2011 it could be a good time to start looking. Some of you say you have been waiting since 2005 or before to buy and have been renting. All those payments in rent also add up and is money flushed down the toilet. If you have been paying say 500euros in rent that is 6000 euros per annum and 30.000euros for 5 years, plus the rest if you are still contemplating on renting. So that is something to bear in mind, you also have lost all that money. Just another way of looking at things.
    I would certainly not suggest to anyone to buy a 2nd home for luxury right now until everyone is certain. But if you are looking for a home, there are some very good deals to be had. And the good ones will not drop in value as much as the rubbish ones, and the good ones will be the first to sell, unless you are not bothered where your property is based of course. If you are prepared to wait another 5 years for things to drop, that is your decision, but it will also be costing you 30.000 euros plus over the next 5 years in rent and you will be paying off someone elses debt/mortgage for them. So ultimately you will be aiding a seller to get through this recession. Which is great for sellers of course. But if I were looking to buy I would be looking in a good location towards the back end of 2011. And if I had sold my house by then, that will be something I would certainly be looking into myself.

    I dont think the maths stack up in quite that way, rental payments are not covering mortgage costs from what I can see. Im unsure exactly how the maths pans out, but taking a quick shot at it below…

    Purchase of a 300k property, creates an initial cost of 30k in taxes and fees. 30k
    There is loss of interest or opportunity cost using 90k for deposit to be considered. could be conservatively assumed to be 6%, perhaps 10-20% if you are any good on the stock market, but lets say 4% to be ultra safe. That 90k becomes 250k in 25 years.

    Buying
    25 years of monthly repayment on 240k mortgage @ 3% = 13.2k pa | 330k
    25 years loss of interest on 90k | 240k
    Buying costs = 30k
    Need to sell @ ~600k in 25 years time to break even. But then of course you will have an asset to sell but also have capital gains tax on that sale…

    Renting
    800 euros a month will get you a 300k place
    Lets say rent rises by 2% a year.
    After 25 years, you will have paid 277k in rent. Your 90k will have made 250k.
    End up with total cost of living for 25 years of 22k, less that 1k a year.

    Im no accountant, but I think the buying trick only works if house prices are always going upwards, otherwise renting looks to be a safe bet.

  • #102139
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @adiep wrote:

    @ethnatkev wrote:
    It may not be a good time to buy in spain if you are looking to make money on the property, that goes without saying. But if it is for a long term investment, then in 2011 it could be a good time to start looking. Some of you say you have been waiting since 2005 or before to buy and have been renting. All those payments in rent also add up and is money flushed down the toilet. If you have been paying say 500euros in rent that is 6000 euros per annum and 30.000euros for 5 years, plus the rest if you are still contemplating on renting. So that is something to bear in mind, you also have lost all that money. Just another way of looking at things.
    I would certainly not suggest to anyone to buy a 2nd home for luxury right now until everyone is certain. But if you are looking for a home, there are some very good deals to be had. And the good ones will not drop in value as much as the rubbish ones, and the good ones will be the first to sell, unless you are not bothered where your property is based of course. If you are prepared to wait another 5 years for things to drop, that is your decision, but it will also be costing you 30.000 euros plus over the next 5 years in rent and you will be paying off someone elses debt/mortgage for them. So ultimately you will be aiding a seller to get through this recession. Which is great for sellers of course. But if I were looking to buy I would be looking in a good location towards the back end of 2011. And if I had sold my house by then, that will be something I would certainly be looking into myself.

    I dont think the maths stack up in quite that way, rental payments are not covering mortgage costs from what I can see. Im unsure exactly how the maths pans out, but taking a quick shot at it below…

    Purchase of a 300k property, creates an initial cost of 30k in taxes and fees. 30k
    There is loss of interest or opportunity cost using 90k for deposit to be considered. could be conservatively assumed to be 6%, perhaps 10-20% if you are any good on the stock market, but lets say 4% to be ultra safe. That 90k becomes 250k in 25 years.

    Buying
    25 years of monthly repayment on 240k mortgage @ 3% = 13.2k pa | 330k
    25 years loss of interest on 90k | 240k
    Buying costs = 30k
    Need to sell @ ~600k in 25 years time to break even. But then of course you will have an asset to sell but also have capital gains tax on that sale…

    Renting
    800 euros a month will get you a 300k place
    Lets say rent rises by 2% a year.
    After 25 years, you will have paid 277k in rent. Your 90k will have made 250k.
    End up with total cost of living for 25 years of 22k, less that 1k a year.

    Im no accountant, but I think the buying trick only works if house prices are always going upwards, otherwise renting looks to be a safe bet.

    I am no accountant either, from what I can see your figures stack up, but, you are missing one crucial point here. Who says you have to sell after 25 years? At the end of 25 years those who purchased, get to live for free in a property they own outright.
    Those who opted for renting get to spend the rest of their life finding their rent money. People are living longer now adays so the odds are you may well live another 25 years rent free if you like.

    So maybe you should work out how much it would cost you after the 25 years and then see who has paid more in the long run.
    I could be wrong, but that was the first thing that crossed my mind when I read your post.
    Please correct me if I am wrong though.

  • #102140
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Its a valid point. However, remember you are paying out less per month and hence can save/invest that money. I think either way can work and it pretty much depends on growth rates in house/rent prices and what you might see back from that 90k.

    If house prices are going to reduce and the stay relatively static for 10 years, then one assumes rent costs will also stay static, in that case buying doesnt look like a great deal. If we are going to see house prices grown by 6% a year, then buying is the clear winner.

    I think the point is, people are going to start weighing these options rather than assuming purchasing is the way to go.

    I dont know the answer, and there’s a lot to be said for having a place you can call home, so on an emotional level, buying wins for me 🙂 Just not sure how it will look from a financial perspective in 25 years.

  • #102141
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    BTW, Katy mentioned the UK stock market being a good place to invest recently. I can vouch that’s the case, having turned a modest sum into 7 times its original amount in a matter of two years. Clearly I have been lucky, but when compared to housing ive been far better served by equities in the last couple of year. Which does demonstrate a certain amount of flexibility is available when you have liquid assets rather than something illiquid like a house.

  • #102142
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The final accounting for the year about to end shows that UK house prices stayed the same but the stock market rose by 6%. I don’t know the Spanish figures, I don’t think anybody does, but property prices have fallen.

    That 2011 will be a difficult year is not in dispute, with austerity measures all around the world really taking effect.

    I followed the renting calculations with interest, they look about right to me, but can’t be taken too far forward, certainly not for 25 years. Where do we look for historic precedents to help us? Is 1930 too long ago? Do the circumstances of 1990 still apply?

    Do we blame Thatcher or Blair? Or the bankers? Or 9/11?

    I don’t think that last date can be ignored – it changed the world order and brought an unexpected war to the complacent West. We are all on edge because of it. Whether we live in Europe or the UK, we are aware that ‘fings ain’t what they used to be’.

    People have gone about ‘respect’ and I happen to agree. I respect far fewer things now than I did ten years ago. My Spanish bank manager told me in the summer that this was a good time to invest in Spanish property. I couldn’t help myself and started laughing, but that’s what I love about Spanish people in general – he started laughing too and we went and had a few beers in the bar next door.

    Feliz Ano Nuevo! And if you’re living in Barcelona, Feliz An Nou!

  • #102143
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @adiep wrote:

    BTW, Katy mentioned the UK stock market being a good place to invest recently. I can vouch that’s the case, having turned a modest sum into 7 times its original amount in a matter of two years. Clearly I have been lucky, but when compared to housing ive been far better served by equities in the last couple of year. Which does demonstrate a certain amount of flexibility is available when you have liquid assets rather than something illiquid like a house.

    Yes it’s been a fun year, I risked some profits on a few that were low and they recovered 😀

    Read that the UK market is up 11% this year. The spanish IBEX is down by over 17%. Says it all really.

  • #102144
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    I am no accountant either, from what I can see your figures stack up, but, you are missing one crucial point here. Who says you have to sell after 25 years? At the end of 25 years those who purchased, get to live for free in a property they own outright.

    Please correct me if I am wrong though.

    Also a 3% interest is terribly optimistic. A long term average is more like 4.5%. What is 25year fix now days? last time I checked it was near 4%. Also, inflation is a complication.

    If you don’t get a fix, interest rates will rocket if the Spain leaves the Euro. 9% would be pretty normal (UK average history rate over the past few decades are around this). And the fixed rate will be in Euro’s against a heavily devalued peseta asset (if you borrowed in the UK ) . The situation is a potential nightmare, the removal of currency risk made the Eurozone risk free, not any more, just the threat of Euro collapse means its no long a safe investment.

  • #102145
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Being an avid newsreader, I was surprised to read this morning that Estonia had joined the Euro today, of all days. Did their government spring the new currency on its population without telling them? There was an accompanying photograph showing a cash machine being filled with armed guards standing by.

    Could it happen here in Spain? I’m going to the cashpoint on Monday to check. I would look forward to getting 5,000 Peseta notes again, much better than the fifty Euro notes

    But more to the point, could it happen in the UK? Maybe that was one of Clegg’s concessions for turning traitor? Imagine finding that instead of getting a handful of the familiar £20 notes, you found yourself with a wad of those funny blue 20 Euro notes.

    Ed Milliband would win the election with a landslide.

  • #102146
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Meanwhile an anti-Euro campaign continues in the country with opponents claiming, in a statement, that Estonia was, “getting the last ticket for the titanic.”

    haha, very nice.

  • #102147
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    It seems that the other Baltic republics are also lining up to join the Euro. Could this be the answer to Spain’s economic and property market problems?

    The people from the Baltic states are regarded as attractive, hard-working, and with a long history of tradition and culture (much the same as Spain, incidentally). If, with their new-found wealth within the Eurozone, they get fed up with their sea freezing over every year, would Spain not be an attractive alternative (The Med is never going to freeze over)?

    Now those kind of people are exactly what an empty country like Spain wants, and needs. A ‘clean’ society to integrate properly and further develop a young democracy moving into the future.

    David Cameron also realised the potential from the Baltic states, before being voted into power he was in Estonia hoping to promote closer ties. The UK has realised that it was wrong to encourage immigration from places where the immigrants were either not helping British society, or were actively trying to blow it up.

    The industrious Poles showed us what could have been.

    I don’t know whether the Baltic states joining the Euro can actually save it, it might be too late for that, and the ones joining in 2014 might be stepping into a void.

  • #102148
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    Being an avid newsreader, I was surprised to read this morning that Estonia had joined the Euro today, of all days. Did their government spring the new currency on its population without telling them?

    😯

    Maybe the Estonian’s noticed the six years before when their currency was fixed against the Euro in preparation for the switch?

    Maybe the ensuing, record breaking economic boom and house price boom might of given them a hint.

    How about the Euro style 50% house price crash, IMF bailout and all round 25% wage deflation?

    If, with their new-found wealth within the Eurozone, they get fed up with their sea freezing over every year, would Spain not be an attractive alternative (The Med is never going to freeze over)?

    Yes, the tiny population (no doubt you don’t know that either as you apparently knowledge on Estonian is nil) is going to make a massive differance in Spain, another country totally ****ed by its Euro membership.

  • #102149
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    Absolutely no way is this going to happen.

    Whats going to happen is a massive re-evaluation of the Spanish lifestyle.

    From smoking to house prices and all in between, the way of life in Spain will undergo big change — the question remains wether or not the Spanish populace will stand for it.

    I think, they will adapt over time and Spain will change to the new rules.

    I now believe its now time to say the un-sayable :

    Spain will not and will never recover its previously held status until :

    (i) Anyone (especially retiring foreigners) who has money is stopped being treated as an easy target to be raped by the authorities
    (ii) The country can show to the outside world it is governed by the rule of law that everyone has confidence in

    Unless these 2 urgent issues are addressed, Spain (and its property market) is off the international agenda for investors and the country will be increasingly treated by perception, as a dodgy place to buy.

    Regards
    Munky

  • #102150
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    What an informative discussion. I decided to make an investment in Spain over 20 years ago now, and have made several since. I must admit I was lucky not to have been affected by the Marbella corruption, although my first investment was in that horrible part of Spain , horrible for endemic corruption on a ridiculous scale.

    I think it clouds the judgment of most commentators who were not as lucky as I was. Marbella is a tiny place which attracted investors of the wrong kind, many from the UK, who jumped on a band wagon heading for hell. I’ve met Jesus Gil, a crook of the worst kind, but the Brits, Arabs and Russians flocked to his door to buy favours.

    It seems to me that some of those are now complaining about injustices. They must have been blind to what was going on.

    As for the silly comments about Spain taking years to recover – they’re inaccurate and display either ignorance or prejudice of the worst kind. I don’t believe in underlining statements, and this is the first time I’ve ever done it.

    Spain has never asked for a bail-out.

    Sorry, I couldn’t find the underline function.

  • #102152
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Why do you keep harping on about marbella? It was probably the first place to hit the headlines re. corruption but that was years ago. Since then the whole South of Spain is sinking in it, including Costa Blanca, costa de la Luz, Almería, Murcia, Axarquía is estimated to have about 20000+ illegal houses. Everything is well documented on this forum.

    However serious was the scale in marbella it is now more or less sorted which is more than can be said for the rest of Spain! Why are you trying to show the impression that everything in the rest of Spain is hunky dory 😮 I was “lucky” too but it doesn’t cloud my judgement….I believe you are in some way involved with the property market, spot ’em aa mile away!

    I think they may be another factor why people aren’t buying…the coasts have been turned into a shithole during the last 10 years with unregulated building, including the costa blanca.

  • #102153
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hey katy if our coasts are such a shit hole why do you keep posting here day in and day out?? take up knitting or gardening !! being angry and bitter won’t help you live a long happy life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Rocker, the rich from the Baltic states are here (marbella) in droves !!!! these days most of the fancy gltizy cars have plates from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – not to mention Bulgaria and Romania !! The millionaire Moroccans are also here in huge numbers and last summer rented most of the big berths in Puerto Banus !!!!!!!!!!!

    that’s a little tip to you UK estate agents who think the future lies with the Brits – change your marketing and you might start selling !!

  • #102156
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Hey katy if our coasts are such a shit hole why do you keep posting here day in and day out?? take up knitting or gardening !! being angry and bitter won’t help you live a long happy life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Rocker, the rich from the Baltic states are here (marbella) in droves !!!! these days most of the fancy gltizy cars have plates from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – not to mention Bulgaria and Romania !! The millionaire Moroccans are also here in huge numbers and last summer rented most of the big berths in Puerto Banus !!!!!!!!!!!

    that’s a little tip to you UK estate agents who think the future lies with the Brits – change your marketing and you might start selling !!

    There we are, someone who lives there now and not 15 years ago tells how it is. That’s exactly the kind of information anyone with an interest in Spanish property needs.

    We are bound to have prospective buyers, sellers, former investors and future ones too reading a forum like this, some admit it openly and some hide behind funny names, but still have an interest for their own reasons.

    I invested in Marbella in a small way many years ago, but decided to try my luck elsewhere when I got giddy watching all those ‘agents’ of one sort or another flying around in their Armani suits and shiny BMWs. It was bound to end in tears, and it’s far from over.

    The previous top administration m Marbella are currently in the dock, all 96 of them; the Spanish authorities have gone for their own first, the foreigners who were involved in the corruption are bound to be next, wherever they are hiding – you can’t hide in the global village, ask Sean Connery.

    But the presence of all those people from the Baltic States in Spain, which I didn’t know about until I read the above post this morning, can only be good news for Spain. They need foreign investment and it looks like it’s coming back.

    Perhaps one of those wind turbines situated at the entrance to No. One court in Marbella could light the whole place up.

  • #102157
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Hey katy if our coasts are such a shit hole why do you keep posting here day in and day out?? take up knitting or gardening !! being angry and bitter won’t help you live a long happy life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Spoiling your sales pitch, does it, having someone posting a reality based opinion? I’m not surprised, 99 estate agents can tell me one thing but I’ll believe the one non-estate agent who disagrees with them.

    Rocker, the rich from the Baltic states are here (marbella) in droves !!!! these days most of the fancy gltizy cars have plates from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – not to mention Bulgaria and Romania !! The millionaire Moroccans are also here in huge numbers and last summer rented most of the big berths in Puerto Banus !!!!!!!!!!!

    that’s a little tip to you UK estate agents who think the future lies with the Brits – change your marketing and you might start selling !!

    In other words, sell to the Slavic gangsters. Thats 10% of the sales from market peak not exactly a bonanza.

  • #102158
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Why would anyone refer to people from the Baltic States as Slavic gangsters? For a start, the geography is wrong, and I suspect strongly that anyone writing that way in the first place has something against foreigners in general.

    If they have, then anything they post on a foreign property forum is valueless and merely driven by silly prejudice.

  • #102160
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    A little under a year since I was in marbella so not as rusty as Rocker’s view of the place. Yes there are lots of dubious eastern bling-bling types around mixing with the euro trash. They tend to buy at the upper end of the market, not the 2/2 blocks. They can’t be buying many though as the whole luxury end of the market in marbella seems to be on sale 😯

    Why do I post on here? I do have an interest in what is happening there as I have many friends and relatives still there.(many who are trying to sell) Secondly to cut the bullshit which appears from time to time. If not readers would get the impression that all is well (ie.legal), lots of bargains about and all of Europe is clamouring to buy 😀

  • #102161
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    But Katy, why are you so bothered about what impression readers get from the posts? If you have lots of friends and family who are waiting to sell, you are surely making it worse for them. With friends like you who needs enemies??!! Spain does have outdated laws and and a lot of people have suffered, but not all the costas are run down as you say. Spain has some beautiful coasts, maybe not the ones inundated with “ex pat” tacky bars and restaurants, but the real Spain has a lot to offer. It will take years for the British to regain their confidence in the Spanish market, we all know that and with no thanks to bad publicity, but there are spaniards starting to look.
    There are a lot of property owners who do need to reduce their price, that goes without saying. But there are some good bargains out there. Some of these properties are just about to be repossesed so the owners are selling them off at huge discount prices for a quick sale before the banks take them. And the Spanish are keeping a close eye on these distressed properties and snatching them up whilst the British are too busy moaning about the market and waiting for the whole of Spain to drop in price. All I am saying is still keep on your toes if you are looking for a “good” discounted property or you may end up losing out and ending up with all the rubbish no one else wants. If a property does get repossesed it could take ages for the banks to release it onto the market, so that dream front line apartment may end up in the banks hands or in the hands of a shrewd Spaniard.

    And I would like to add also, if you are concerned about illegal builds, do not purchase newer properties as these would be the higher risk ones. Plus they have clamped down on all the illegal builds now and buyers are certainly checking these things out now, so the chances of buying an illegal build now is very slim. In the past it has happened, we all know, but Spain will certainly put a stop to it now due to all the bad publicity it has created.

  • #102162
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I have always posted the truth even when I owned property there. I doubt that my posts are responsible for the spanish property crash 😆 I merely give my thoughts on it and I have never said don’t buy. Just spend a week or so reading this forum.

    I think the fact that your villa hasn’t sold demonstrates the state of the market as it is a on-off and would equally appeal to people from Northern Spain and germans etc who could drive down.

  • #102163
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    the shrewd spainiard you mean a spainiard who has a friend or family member that works for the bank.Sounds like corruption to me somethings will never change

  • #102165
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Dartboy, that’s exactly how it works. I have a colleague whose brother works at the bank, through his brother he has now purchased 3 properties, all repos at properly discounted rates and with 100% mortgages.

    Corruption is endemic in Spain, it wont change and foreigners will always be the victims.

  • #102167
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I think the fact that your villa hasn’t sold demonstrates the state of the market as it is a on-off and would equally appeal to people from Northern Spain and germans etc who could drive down.

    I wasn’t going to mention this as I don’t like to tempt fate, but as you obviously seem to know it all…The reason I am growing in confidence is because I put my villa back on the market a month or so ago and I have had two viewings so far and one of them is having a second viewing after reyes. And the estate agents have another viewing lined up also for after reyes. Until someone signs on the dotted line it is not a sale, (before you say this I will say it for you), BUT when I had it on the market last christmas I had 0 (zero) viewings and no interest what so ever. My property is priced below others in the same area so I am not in the category of stubborn spanish trying to make a profit. So that tells me that people are starting to look, so a positive sign for me anyway. And it has boosted my confidence by 100%. Regardless of your negative post.

  • #102168
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I probably posted this before but in the 1990’s we were playing golf at marbella golf. Lost a ball and whilst looking saw an obviously derelict villa, pool and 1000M2 plot. Made enquiries at the community office to find the owner. It was owned by a bank, a few phone calls later I was given the number of the person responsible for foreclosures…..he couldn’t find any details for it. Eventually a few weeks and many calls later we negotiated a good price for it, gave him our Lawyers card and said he would be in touch. When our Lawyer contacted him he said sorry, there had been a mistake the place wasn’t for sale 🙄 Now owned and refurbished by a certain bank worker!

    Some family members and myself are due to inherit a villa. Owned by an old aunt she left marbella years ago and has not been used for years. She has been trying to sell it for a long time at a reasonable price. Our Aunt died on Christmas eve. Now we want/need this villa like a hole in the head as we will have to lay out thousands of pounds in taxes before we can sell it. Clearly this could be years.
    Along came the Lawyers offer who has POA. If we agree, he will deal with everything, lay out the money for taxes and arrange purchase for a client of his (probably himself). Naturally the price is ridicously low but we will probably take it, just one cousin not decided.

    A you see the real bargains don’t get advertised!

  • #102170
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @ethnatkev wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    I think the fact that your villa hasn’t sold demonstrates the state of the market as it is a on-off and would equally appeal to people from Northern Spain and germans etc who could drive down.

    I wasn’t going to mention this as I don’t like to tempt fate, but as you obviously seem to know it all…The reason I am growing in confidence is because I put my villa back on the market a month or so ago and I have had two viewings so far and one of them is having a second viewing after reyes. And the estate agents have another viewing lined up also for after reyes. Until someone signs on the dotted line it is not a sale, (before you say this I will say it for you), BUT when I had it on the market last christmas I had 0 (zero) viewings and no interest what so ever. My property is priced below others in the same area so I am not in the category of stubborn spanish trying to make a profit. So that tells me that people are starting to look, so a positive sign for me anyway. And it has boosted my confidence by 100%. Regardless of your negative post.

    Well good luck, or should I say break a leg 🙂

    Some do sell. We sold our in 2010 to a relative.

  • #102171
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    It seems that the other Baltic republics are also lining up to join the Euro. Could this be the answer to Spain’s economic and property market problems?

    The people from the Baltic states are regarded as attractive, hard-working, and with a long history of tradition and culture (much the same as Spain, incidentally). If, with their new-found wealth within the Eurozone, they get fed up with their sea freezing over every year, would Spain not be an attractive alternative (The Med is never going to freeze over)?

    Now those kind of people are exactly what an empty country like Spain wants, and needs. A ‘clean’ society to integrate properly and further develop a young democracy moving into the future.

    David Cameron also realised the potential from the Baltic states, before being voted into power he was in Estonia hoping to promote closer ties. The UK has realised that it was wrong to encourage immigration from places where the immigrants were either not helping British society, or were actively trying to blow it up.

    The industrious Poles showed us what could have been.

    I don’t know whether the Baltic states joining the Euro can actually save it, it might be too late for that, and the ones joining in 2014 might be stepping into a void.

    the reason the poles came and showed us brits how it should be done was because they could afford to,i have a polish barmaid in my local pub she shares a 2 up 2 down house with 5 other poles they are all here short team in a rented property in the cheapest end of town she says that they intend to be here for 5 years and at the end of the 5 years they will go back and buy a small apartment block between them.they are in their 4th year now they can afford to work for £200 a week and live well and still save some.For a british family to rent the same house they would need to earn a hell of alot more than that and thats where the lasy brit came from they got under cut on jobs left right and center because they just couldn’t afford to work for the same money.I am a tiler and usually charge £120 a day but i was loosing jobs to poles who were happy to do it for £75 a day.I have 4 children and live in a 4 bed house i run a van and a car and because i got work by reputation i have been ok,but i could not afford to work for £75 it wouldn’t cover my bills and a lot of builders i know just gave up and are now on the dole where they don’t have to worry about getting work in to feed their kids and pay the bills.imigration would work great on a level playingfield but with those who don’t intend on staying and are just here to get enough so they can go home afterwards and lead a comfortable life its never going to be good long term for the country as so much money leaves the economy.

  • #102172
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    @ethnatkev wrote:
    @katy wrote:
    I think the fact that your villa hasn’t sold demonstrates the state of the market as it is a on-off and would equally appeal to people from Northern Spain and germans etc who could drive down.

    I wasn’t going to mention this as I don’t like to tempt fate, but as you obviously seem to know it all…The reason I am growing in confidence is because I put my villa back on the market a month or so ago and I have had two viewings so far and one of them is having a second viewing after reyes. And the estate agents have another viewing lined up also for after reyes. Until someone signs on the dotted line it is not a sale, (before you say this I will say it for you), BUT when I had it on the market last christmas I had 0 (zero) viewings and no interest what so ever. My property is priced below others in the same area so I am not in the category of stubborn spanish trying to make a profit. So that tells me that people are starting to look, so a positive sign for me anyway. And it has boosted my confidence by 100%. Regardless of your negative post.

    Well good luck, or should I say break a leg 🙂

    Some do sell. We sold our in 2010 to a relative.

    Well thankyou for wishing me luck, I appreciate that, and I need it! thankyou

  • #102173
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dartboy wrote:

    the shrewd spainiard you mean a spainiard who has a friend or family member that works for the bank.Sounds like corruption to me somethings will never change

    Yes, unfortunately, you are right, this probably goes on all the time. Same as in the uk, and it’s not only bankers it is the estate agents themselves. My best friend was an estate agent in the uk and he used to do exactly that. He would snatch up the repos and they wouldn’t even get on to the market, then he would do them up and sell them on for a hefty profit. So everywhere has corruption.

    At the end of day this is why I say that all the great bargains of good properties will probably get snapped up if they get repossesed by the bankers or estate agents themselves. That is why the spaniards will try to get in there first. But I do not think for a moment that a seller would discriminate a british seller. If they have the money, they don’t care what nationality you are from.

  • #102186
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    Why would anyone refer to people from the Baltic States as Slavic gangsters? For a start, the geography is wrong, and I suspect strongly that anyone writing that way in the first place has something against foreigners in general.

    If they have, then anything they post on a foreign property forum is valueless and merely driven by silly prejudice.

    You are really quite incredibly ***** arn’t you? You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, that is very obvious with the drivel about Estonia changing overnight to the Euro and suddenly becoming rich enough to blow their life savings on Spanish property.

    25% of Estonia population, is of course, Russian and where do you think the money comes from? The average wage here in Poland is 800 euro’s a month and that constitutes a Blue-Chip company wage. Poland is doing extremely well economically, far better than the Baltic states and, as I pointed out, Estonia’s house price crash of 50% means that there is no chance the money from legitimate sources will be chasing a falling market in Spain. Also, people here don’t go to Spain for holiday, its too far away when closer better, locations in Europe and Non-Aligned nations such as Cuba, Syria, Vietnam and Egypt are the preferred and cheaper destinations.

    I’m a Slav by the way, and like the rest of us we are quite proud of it and I reserve judgement to call gangsters for what they are. Please go and read, at least, Wikipedia to get some very basic facts before posting in future.

    the reason the poles came and showed us brits how it should be done was because they could afford to,i have a polish barmaid in my local pub she shares a 2 up 2 down house with 5 other poles they are all here short team in a rented property in the cheapest end of town she says that they intend to be here for 5 years and at the end of the 5 years they will go back and buy a small apartment block between them.they are in their 4th year now they can afford to work for £200 a week and live well and still save some.For a british family to rent the same house they would need to earn a hell of alot more than that and thats where the lasy brit came from they got under cut on jobs left right and center because they just couldn’t afford to work for the same money.I am a tiler and usually charge £120 a day but i was loosing jobs to poles who were happy to do it for £75 a day.

    I’ve had quite a lot of Building work done here in Poland. I can hire someone to do decorating/building work for 100z per day, about £22. For this they will sleep on site, start at 6am and continue to 10pm (quality of work is variable though). Building materials in Poland, particularly tiles (1/4 UK price) are cheap. Apartments are actually quite expensive as there is a lot of demand, eg 5-10K zloty per sq meter in Krakow (£1-2K), but there is lots of none city property going quite cheap. I bought a farm with land for £37k, but the land is worth £15k. My parent in law just bought a small house with 1ha of land for £15k, perfect for the forest for hunter/gathering that they enjoy so much. There is a lot of property and land available becuase Poland has 1 million small farms and planning permission is possible to get for land adjacent to existing building land.

    So you can understand why Poles are working in the UK for what seems like low wages beacause they can quite easily buy a home after a short period of hard work, many ex-American Poles have done the same.

  • #102187
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I have always posted the truth even when I owned property there. I doubt that my posts are responsible for the spanish property crash 😆 I merely give my thoughts on it and I have never said don’t buy. Just spend a week or so reading this forum.

    I think the fact that your villa hasn’t sold demonstrates the state of the market as it is a on-off and would equally appeal to people from Northern Spain and germans etc who could drive down.

    +1

    The best possible advice is to get away from property that is overvalued. Spain is seriously overvalued and the prices will continue to fall for many years and then stagnate for many years after that. Interest rates at probably an all time low and sales down 90%? Katy best advice to her friends is to scare them to death so that they run away as fast as possible. And buyers, making a new investment? Fine, if its stolen money you need to launder…

    2011 is going to the year when the SHTF. Even as soon as this month we could have a sovereign debt crisis becuase so many countries and banks need to raise so much money in markets that are very adverse to buying bonds. The first to go to market are going to be the only ones who get anything.

  • #102077
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I thought katy’s description of the Coast was pretty accurate, especially on the CDS and C. Blanca, the overdevelopment and ruin of the landscape, hills etc beggars belief, yes, within those areas are some pleasant greenish spots but they’re mainly expensive enclaves for the rich. You only need to look down on the urban sprawl and mess below from places like Mijas.

    Too many illegal builds, too much corruption, STILL, too many unsold homes that will keep the market depressed for ages.

    The C. Brava generally is a much prettier coastline though although a cooler climate in winter 😉

  • #102188
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Rocker, peterhuns comment on “slavs” is just ignorance!!! the huge influx of eastern europeans is down to entrepeneurs wanting to have fun, flash their wealth, dance at Nikki beach, drive a porsche and live the dream with a marbella pad……… in addition to ignorance it’s also called sour grapes – luckily for some parts of the coast;ie marbella we are being saved by scandinavians, eastern europeans,
    North africans and even mega rich Portuguese who have been making fortunes in Brasil, Mozambique and Angola.

    another example of the new influx is the fact that six front line golf villas in los arqueros have been sold to Russians in the last year – and no they are not gangsters or money launderers – just successful businessmen and women…………

    Adiep, that is not a good example of corruption, sorry !! that would happen in the UK as well for sure !! yes sure the Spaniards are a bit corrupt and crooked – but hey we’ve known that since the 60`s…….. stop being a moaning minnie !!!! and get on and enjoy life in this great country –

  • #102189
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Well there are still plenty for sale on los Arqueros 😆 Would the British want to live around these people, I know I wouldn’t having seen how they conduct themselves.

  • #102190
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Rocker, peterhuns comment on “slavs” is just ignorance!!!

    I called them GANGSTERS.

    I think as a Slav, living in Eastern Europe I can describe them how I like..

  • #102191
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    @UBEDA wrote:
    Rocker, peterhuns comment on “slavs” is just ignorance!!!

    I called them GANGSTERS.

    I think as a Slav, living in Eastern Europe I can describe them how I like..

    Instead of name-calling and ‘shouting’, why don’t you just look at a map of Europe? You may well be a Slav living in Eastern Europe, but that hardly justifies you calling people from Northern Europe, or anywhere else for that matter, gangsters.

    With your views, and living in Eastern Europe, and your negativity towards anything Spanish, I wonder at your purpose in posting on a Spanish property forum?

  • #102193
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:
    @UBEDA wrote:
    Rocker, peterhuns comment on “slavs” is just ignorance!!!

    I called them GANGSTERS.

    I think as a Slav, living in Eastern Europe I can describe them how I like..

    Instead of name-calling and ‘shouting’, why don’t you just look at a map of Europe? You may well be a Slav living in Eastern Europe, but that hardly justifies you calling people from Northern Europe, or anywhere else for that matter, gangsters.

    With your views, and living in Eastern Europe, and your negativity towards anything Spanish, I wonder at your purpose in posting on a Spanish property forum?

    I’m posting here becuase you invited me to.

    Ask for opinions and you will get it, its not for you to decide who can answer and its not for you to determine that calling someone a Gangster is acceptable (it is) or that the term Slav is a racist slur (it isn’t).

  • #102198
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    I’m posting here becuase you invited me to.

    Ask for opinions and you will get it, its not for you to decide who can answer and its not for you to determine that calling someone a Gangster is acceptable (it is) or that the term Slav is a racist slur (it isn’t).

    just a quick point. Estonians are not ‘slavs’ they are a ‘finnic’ people.

  • #102200
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @fuengi wrote:

    just a quick point. Estonians are not ‘slavs’ they are a ‘finnic’ people.

    Yes, but a quarter of people living in Estonia are Russian.
    Can we get back on topic.

  • #102201
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @fuengi wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:

    I’m posting here becuase you invited me to.

    Ask for opinions and you will get it, its not for you to decide who can answer and its not for you to determine that calling someone a Gangster is acceptable (it is) or that the term Slav is a racist slur (it isn’t).

    just a quick point. Estonians are not ‘slavs’ they are a ‘finnic’ people.

    Now youre just being finicky…

    badum tssssh

  • #102227
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    @fuengi wrote:

    just a quick point. Estonians are not ‘slavs’ they are a ‘finnic’ people.

    Yes, but a quarter of people living in Estonia are Russian.
    Can we get back on topic.

    I know, think the last thing i read was 25%.

  • #102243
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    @UBEDA wrote:
    Rocker, peterhuns comment on “slavs” is just ignorance!!!

    I called them GANGSTERS.

    I think as a Slav, living in Eastern Europe I can describe them how I like..

    Sorry, I missed this reply, As a Slav, I think you have a reasonable knowledge of English grammar, but to call an Englishman an ignorant xxxx gives you away for being a foreigner. Or an ignorant native.

  • #102281
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    As I expected, Germans realise they have to bail out the PIIGS.

    Germany’s Refusal to Boost Euro Rescue Fund May Be Weakening

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-09/germany-s-refusal-to-boost-966-billion-euro-rescue-fund-may-be-weakening.html

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.