Can the Uk defy: Ire, Spain, US, France, UAE, East Eur etc?

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This topic contains 16 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of angie angie 6 years, 5 months ago.

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  • #55709
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Don’t shoot the messenger. Knowledge is power.

    http://www.moneyweek.com/investments…ash-02516.aspx

    This things been running for about 5 years in the US starting in Florida in late 05/early06. In the UK we came down about 18 to 20% from the peak in 2007. Then with the 0.5% BOE base rate, taxpayer Bank Bail Out and multiple hundred’s of millions QE/Printing Press bubble re-inflation, prices have come back up 8 to 10%.

    The world should have had a ‘mild’ recession in 2002/03/04, we didn’t (now we got a big un). The Uk should have had a meaningful correction in property prices in 05/06/07 we didn’t.

    You can only pull the rabbit out of the hat so many times. Can the UK market fly in the face of all the others? I don’t think we can have a sustainable recovery in the UK economy until property corrects to a level more sustainable by fundamentals.

  • #99315
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Good to see you posting PABLO. 😀

    I cannot get your link to work though. 😕

  • #99327
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    Anonymous
    Participant
  • #99330
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Interesting post Pablo, I signed up for the free email newsletters.

    IMO Merryn Somerset Webb has been pretty accurate with forecasts and views in the past.

    I wonder if it really is feasible for UK property to fall by 50% in the future, perhaps triggered by events elsewhere? We’re constantly told that the UK needs to build more houses to satisfy demand, unlike Spain for example where they oversupplied.

    I have noticed that sensibly priced UK property seems to sell fairly quickly, whereas the overpriced ones stick for ages before eventually being reduced. Whether it’s the Agents’ or vendors’ valuations that are wrong is not really clear.

  • #99343
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thanks Pablo.

    Angie, Houses around us are selling very easily. Nothing seems to hang around long. In our local property supplement this week, there are houses with BIG price tags on the market…pages of them. Fabulous properties if you can afford them.

  • #99351
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I think there are areas of the UK Claire where property is selling well as you suggest eg Surrey, other areas of London like Wimbledon, Bath etc.

    Spread the net wider to other Counties even in Kent and even in prime spots only the sensibly priced are selling well. Even near T. Wells, there are houses which have been for sale for a long time, ( 1 for 4.5 years in a prime spot) and reductions are happening to shift them.

    There was an interesting article and graph on Pablo’s link, if you click on it, and go to UK property on the left, and scroll down to a header which says, ‘what will trigger the next house price crash’. This goes on about fundamentals and historical data and mentions that some of the leading UK agents as well as economists are still predicting falls.

    The Budget seems to have created a problem for buyers and sellers. In the Telegraph 1 person wrote that he is withdrawing £2 million pounds worth of BTL property because of the new CGT of 28%, and others thinking of purchasing BTL have decided against because of future CGT, not sure what that does for the market in the UK.

  • #99352
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Yet the BTL market did well in times when capital gains was higher 😕

    Houses here in Surrey sell within a few weeks. Have noticed one sticking since last year. On main road edge of a blue chip village. modern, no character. Opposite a junction to small industrial estate and next to village shop, so a bit of a busy area. Guess it is still all about location and people can be choosy right now.

  • #99354
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    It’s horses for courses, Katy. My daughter bought a “Character” cottage end of last year. Paid too much for it in our opinion but there was not much available. It’s lovely but too many “characterful idiosyncracies” that drive me nuts. I’m always drawn to brand spanking new. I can put my own mark on it without spending blood sweat and tears on other peoples choices. The older properties that I like have a £1.5 to £3mill+ price tag. Champagne taste, cava budget! 😆

  • #99375
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    You’re right both of you, it’s all about location.

    I’m in Wells today, normally a fairly robust property market as it’s near Bath which is holding up well. However in Wells, the 1st agent I looked in the window had 7 price reductions out of 20 properties in the window.

    I’m sure the Provinces are suffering far worse in the UK than the commuter hot spots.

  • #99379
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    If, I recall correctly there are less than a million buy to let mortgages in UK. BTL landlords are in it for a longer period & do not have to sell if they dont need to. As such this tax can be avoided. There is always property flipping or turning it into a holiday let, failing this just wait prior to next election. You will see % rate being reduced or tapering relief being introduced.
    Some forum users may know that even a high taxing Country like France they do not have capital gains tax after 20 years of ownership.

  • #99401
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    The Inependent Newspaper’s headlines today are ‘How Long Can The Housing Market Avoid A Crash?’ Talking about the UK’s property market.

    The table and graph referred to in Pablo’s link talks of the data now being hidden by Gov’t etc which the ‘Estate Agents do not want published’.

    There seems to be a two tier property market in the UK right now.

  • #99408
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @Claire wrote:

    It’s horses for courses, Katy. My daughter bought a “Character” cottage end of last year. Paid too much for it in our opinion but there was not much available. It’s lovely but too many “characterful idiosyncracies” that drive me nuts. I’m always drawn to brand spanking new. I can put my own mark on it without spending blood sweat and tears on other peoples choices. The older properties that I like have a £1.5 to £3mill+ price tag. Champagne taste, cava budget! 😆

    Hmmm I sometimes have a feeling we may have paid too much for our “character” home. I still love it and as you say not much around last year. We were outbidded twice on other houses. A barn partly converted went on sale this year in our village, only 2 beds and 1 bath, inside photos nothing special but has a large garden with views. Offers around £550,000. Villagers said they wouldn’t get it but it sold quickly at £685,000 😯

  • #99418
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    That’s a crazy price for a 2 bed/1bath, but a view comes with a premium price tag.

  • #99422
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    I think there are areas of the UK Claire where property is selling well as you suggest eg Surrey, other areas of London like Wimbledon, Bath etc.

    Spread the net wider to other Counties even in Kent and even in prime spots only the sensibly priced are selling well. Even near T. Wells, there are houses which have been for sale for a long time, ( 1 for 4.5 years in a prime spot) and reductions are happening to shift them.

    The UK market is still being distorted by the hundreds of billions given to the banks by HMG. The principle is to allow banks to make big profits and build up their capital ratios to allow them to start lending again. In practice they are paying bonus’s and propping up the housing market in the commuter belt…in Surrey and Tonbridge Wells for instance.

    The money for this is coming from government borrowing and the 200billion that they printed through QE (which has to be repaid in real hard cash). The payback for all this hasn’t even started, so for now everything looks rosy in the UK.

  • #99423
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The UK market is still being distorted by the hundreds of billions given to the banks by HMG. The principle is to allow banks to make big profits and build up their capital ratios to allow them to start lending again. In practice they are paying bonus’s and propping up the housing market in the commuter belt…in Surrey and Tonbridge Wells for instance.

    Are you implying that it is the bank employees who are buying the houses ? If so, I think you are waaay off the mark.

  • #99427
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I read that Winchester is a property hotspot too, can’t remember the others.

  • #99484
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Katy, you may feel you overpaid for your ‘character cottage’ but if it suits you then that’s ok, and as it’s character would probably always re-sell if the necessary.

    Those buying bog-standard homes in the UK, and Spain etc have probably overpaid though because they will be the last to shift.

    I’m now getting regular emails from agents in Spain, Cyprus and UK with ‘Bargains’, Cyprus property seems to have had it’s boom days too, like Spain.

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