Can Spain expect a spectacular recovery like Florida?

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This topic contains 11 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 2 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #57557
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    The housing market in Florida has made a spectacular recovery since the post-Lehman / sub-prime bust. Spain has always aspired to be the “Florida of Europe” (but never fulfilled it’s potential 🙁 ). So what can we learn from Florida’s recovery……

    Can Spain expect a spectacular recovery like Florida?

  • #117353
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m one of those expats who is hoping for a Spanish recovery, similar to the Florida example, but I can’t see much evidence of it. Many articles, including the one linked to here, explain the reasons much better than I could.

    Overall, it appears to me that the properties put up for sale on the Spanish websites, those of the major banks for example, seem to specialise in putting the most appalling, scruffy examples on their portals, at silly prices too.

    I looked at the biggest Spanish banks property show this morning. They’ve recently laid off thousands of staff, but missed the people responsible for their property portfolio. They should have been the first to go.

  • #117346
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Spain cannot be like Florida. The business & governance model of the Anglo Saxon has to be applied. This sentence of my covers various aspects & would be a big yawn to mention them again .

    However as an example transparency,Justice, consumer rights, taxes and the maturity to accept mistakes and learn from it., End of my Sunday morning sermon.

  • #117347
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    I’m normally more optimistic than most (I’ve witnessed a recovery in Spain in the 90s from equally bad unemployment figures and a tourist sector far worst hit).
    However I can’t see a “spectacular recovery” in house prices for a while, as the internal demand will take some time to recover.
    Not to say there won’t be localised hot spots though. Make a note of where the Norwegians fly to – they are far wealthier than the Brit equivalents, and need to escape dire weather up north…5000 euros a month pension doesn’t sound at all bad!

    http://www.lasprovincias.es/20130607/economia/jubilados-alemanes-pension-valencia-201306071956.html

  • #117352
    Profile photo of GarySFBCN
    GarySFBCN
    Participant

    I read your article, Mark. I believe that, until changes are made, the answer is NO. There needs to be a healthy level of employment in order for a sustainable real estate market to exist. And while Florida is doing well, the San Francisco Bay Area is so hot that it feels like another real estate bubble is rising. There are almost no sales for the asking price – homes are being sold for more than the asking price, and the sales prices are already at mid-year 2007 prices, which was the market’s peak here. Why is the market so hot? Employment. The unemployment rate has been steadily falling – in San Francisco it is now below 6%. Simulating the economy and reducing unemployment should be the highest priority in Spain.

    Also, everything shakeel wrote is true. I would add that nothing that PP is doing is helping. The ‘real estate for residency’ debacle is a good example. How many proposals for this have they ‘floated’ ? Have any been finalized? This shouldn’t take months to implement. I don’t know when this all started, but I remember in November Rajoy announced a plan for 160,000 euro investment. As so many people know that I have a place in Barcelona, I’ve become a ‘point person’ for them. At least 10 people asked me about the ‘real estate for residency’ and they all have money to buy in Spain. I told all of them that nothing had been finalized and that I’d get back to them.

    Now, at least two plans later, we still don’t have anything firm, and the latest proposal would only seem attractive to criminal elements in other countries. It really seems like PP is operating from a position of fear and paranoia about everything. Had they just moved forward with the original plan or maybe the 300k plan, they would have seen a big bounce in sales. It’s the same story with the ‘fast tracking’ of residency applications for those with Spanish-Jewish ancestry. I’ve been asked about that too. They did enact the law and no applications are being processed because it was all for show. Both of these examples demonstrate how lack of leadership and follow through have had a negative impact upon potential real estate sales.

    I understand that most of those in power are good people wanting Spain to succeed, but they are dangerously unaware of their limitations. And they still haven’t figured-out how to deal with corruption.

    I will be considering making another purchase but only if I survive the reforma process on my current unit (which was supposed to be completed before August but has not started; thankfully I have no contract), and ONLY if it looks like Spain’s leaders start doing things right.

  • #117355
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Spain’s property market cannot be compared to Florida, like chalk and cheese. American houses have always been better value for money. Even when the Florida market went through it’s darkest period the average time taken to sell a property was only around 83 days whilst at the same time the average in Spain’s Costas was around 4 years (Diario sur).

    The Canadian market has always been vast, many of our neighbours where we bought in Naples are Canadian who snowbird for the winter. Also Canada didn’t have a recession. Florida’s climate is far better than anywhere in Spain too.

    What could Spain learn from Florida…….reduce buying costs. When we bought in Florida taxes etc. were about 1%. Also reductions when they came were genuine not some B&Q pie in the sky 50% off! Then there are the small things like Spain improving customer service..

  • #117360
    Profile photo of The Australian
    The Australian
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    The housing market in Florida has made a spectacular recovery since the post-Lehman / sub-prime bust. Spain has always aspired to be the “Florida of Europe” (but never fulfilled it’s potential 🙁 ). So what can we learn from Florida’s recovery……

    Can Spain expect a spectacular recovery like Florida?

    Nope.

    Just look at that picture!! Where in Spain you get such a nice beach and a footpath?

    In Spain drivers will run over you and no one will get arrested.

    It’s just a different world, it’s not just about prices.

  • #117429
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    The US has not systematically changed it’s economy: it has experienced a boom then a bust and will probably have another boom again, followed by a bust, and so on. It’s the same with any credit driven economy (like the UK).

    With the euro Spain has effectively made its economy less credit driven and more German. And the Germans don’t do booms and busts. Well not to the same extent. Of course the euro initially helped cause an enormous boom and bust in Spain, but there is reason to believe that that won’t be repeated. When the eurozone eventually gets out of this mess there won’t be a return to the easy pre-crisis lending conditions. Instead there will be a banking union and much tighter controls. People might even have to do something productive in order to make money rather than trying to pick the peaks and troughs of the housing market. That’s not to say there won’t be some kind of recovery – this crash will probably over-correct itself and there may eventually be a slight bounce back but, all things being equal, I don’t expect any more housing booms in Spain.

  • #119370
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I hope you are not talking about Florida USA.
    I purchased 2 homes at rock bottom price in Florida, and as of today. it still at rock bottom price.
    3/4 of Florida real estate market is in dead. only Miami area is doing OK , because the French are buying some great deals. Else , everything is the same, in a crisis mode, as is Nevada.

  • #119371
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Well ours is doing ok. We bought in a good area of Naples on the gulf and it hardly dropped. Now gone well above the crash price. Have heard other areas are doing ok too.

  • #119154
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I was looking at property in Naples FL recently on-line as we used to go there for holidays and noticed prices were holding up really well, and areas we got to know like Venetian Bay, 5th Avenue, Old Naples, beach side and many golf course homes were really expensive, same goes for Marco Island holding up well.

    Also, we have friends in Kensington San Diego CA and prices there, as well as on Coronado Island, La Jolla, Downtown are now dearer than pre-crash. Old bungalows on good plots fetch well over $700k in good suburban areas. Same goes for Westchester County New York, no sign of a downturn there now, hugely expensive real estate. 🙄

    These areas are similar to hot spots in the UK like London, Bath, Oxford, T.Wells, Surrey etc

    All property markets have their hot spots and down spots, I doubt if Majorca has suffered as much as the CDS just because it’s a smaller niche market there

  • #119373
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I think in Italy there is no Inheritance Tax charge for non resident owners. That is a great plus if you want to pass a property on to a brother or sister -in Spain you get stitched up particularly if they have a home in UK and its worth more than 7500 euros -the ridiculous level it starts at. Sorry to be negative today but Spain hasn’t a hope in hell till it cleans up its act -gorillas in the African jungle must be ten times better. Saying that I noticed much racist writings on the back of the bus seats in Canaries this year – No Africans -No Gorillas ! The young Spanish are getting very restive about this -fascism is alive and well in Spain and with the input from the enclaves in Morrocco and elsewhere in Afiica and Arabia notice the increase in numbers and the number of ladies with head scarves but saw no burkas.

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