Bloomberg TV predicts more pain for Spain!

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This topic contains 38 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of angie angie 8 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #53557
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    An analyst on Bloomberg tv the other day says Spain is going to experience a real property crash in 2008 (as if it hasn´t already crashed) and their economy is struggling too.

    Driving around the Costa del Sol for now checking things out, many agents closed including all Viva´s offices it seems apart from main one, agents with no-one in them, people saying nothing is selling (including a Brit lawyer who deals in Spanish property), Developers leaving unfinished sites and going bust, still ghastly overdevopment and grossly overpriced and a lot of poor build quality generally, loads of graffiti, it really looks messy.

    Has Spain shot itself in the foot?

    Been to 2 Golf Course devs., no security at gates, reports of break-ins mainly by Moroccans and Eastern Europeans begs the question, ´(who in their right mind would want to buy in Morocco, Bulgaria, Romania etc) where many of the Costa crooked agents are now selling.

    Add the UK property bubble burst and poor exchange rate which will affect the market in Spain, I wouldn´t buy on the Costas for a few years yet if at all, nor the places above.

    The Awful Ocean Estates IMO should also be avoided along with a few others.

  • #77045
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    angie wrote:

    Been to 2 Golf Course devs., no security at gates, reports of break-ins mainly by Moroccans and Eastern Europeans begs the question, ´(who in their right mind would want to buy in Morocco, Bulgaria, Romania etc) where many of the Costa crooked agents are now selling.

    Sorry, this is quite naive thinking.

    Build gated communities in UK with houses inhabited 1-2 months per year. Then remove the
    security and the places will be looted in no time.

  • #77048
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    I guess if the moroccans and eastern europeans are breaking in in Spain, then surely their countries are safer while they are here??!?

  • #77053
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Think you’re right Inez. I can’t remember which Eastern block country it was, but read not so long ago how one Mayor claimed levels of crime in his town suddenly dropped by over 60% once the border opened.

  • #77054
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Generally the main targets here are tourists. As someone said they are mainly interested in cash and credit cards not all the household equipment. I hear it is rare for them to break into unoccupied homes. We leave music equipment all the time around the pool and lots of other stuff hanging around. The bottom garden ajoins open country and there has never been a problem.

  • #77055
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Inez, your mind works in line with mine. Besides its quite a common excuse. Similar reasons are given in France & Italy and before the Eastern Europeans/Moroccans it was the Gypsies.

    From at outsiders point of view they express their experience of the relevancy country. It is the country and the state off its law and order and its enforcements that is looked at.

    So, looking at Spain. The Spaniards don’t rob/steal !!!!. I would like to state that the crooked developers, lawyers, judges, mayors are all Eastern Europeans or Moroccans than ?????? and not to mention Banks Managers.

  • #77068
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    Besides its quite a common excuse. Similar reasons are given in France & Italy and before the Eastern Europeans/Moroccans it was the Gypsies.

    What “excuse” is that Shakeel? Just relating facts direct from the police. Think they know best who form the majority of their arrests, often made all the easier as they usually find their homes full of the ‘booty’.

    Incidentally I have relatives in France and friends in Italy who are experiencing a similar situation as here. A marked increase in crime with the influx of immigrants.
    I know, all not very PC of me to say all this and for some….shock, horror. But at least our (lovely) Albanian gardener is not in denial and acknowledges what is going on. According to him many only want an overseas contract for the opportunity to carry out their ‘main profession’. Anyway, you obviously feel Spain is different, so be it.

    As for crooked developers, lawyers, etc in Spain – that is quite a different subject. Angie was referring specifically to break-ins.
    I gather the purpose of your last two lines is to highlight that in Spain there are Spanish crooks also. I think most of us appreciate that fact.
    Also most of us are cluey enough to acknowledge there are good and bad in every nation on this planet.
    Regarding this particular bunch (the crooked developers/lawyers etc.) having been on the receiving end of them myself and suffered greatly as a result like many here on SPI, I’ve already made my feeling very clear on what I think of them in previous posts. 👿

    Am fully aware Inez’s comment may well have been tongue-in-cheek. Just thought it worth posting that a certain Mayor in a certain Eastern European country seems to agree with her …..tongue-in-cheek or not. 🙂

  • #77071
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Charlie:
    We agree on the majority of the issues. I do not subscribe to the PC brigade and call a spade a spade.

    Skirting around a subject in a cowardly manner and not speaking your mind is not a very mature way of dealing with unpleasant issues.

    However the language and the level of decency must be maintained.

  • #77072
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    However the language and the level of decency must be maintained.

    Absolutely.

    “I would like to state that the crooked developers, lawyers, judges, mayors are all Eastern Europeans or Moroccans then ?????? and not to mention Banks Managers”.
    Must admit I found this sentence a bit ‘strange’ and unnecessarily bordering on the sarcastic? 🙄

    But agree – there is a line that shouldn’t be crossed. I always try and not do that unless confronted with rudeness.

  • #77075
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Spain is going to experience a real property crash in 2008 (as if it hasn´t already crashed)

    What is the source of that statement and how much have prices declined?

    In the area i am interested in (Frigiliana/Nerja), while i see evidence of softening prices i see no evidence of the 20% + falls i would expect in a ‘crash’.

    I still remember the UK crash of the early ’90s. Now then there was real evidence of 50% decline in a couple of years. Just don’t see that in Spain yet. 10% to 15% is just ‘noise’.

    I need to see 40% decline before buying. I’m not hopeful of that.

  • #77076
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    ashtondav

    Regarding the last crash in the UK (1989 to circa 1994) although you could buy properties in London/South east, the southwest, east Anglia and the midlands at -30% to -40% below their peak, interestingly the historic stats only show that prices in the UK only fell -17% (prices were still rising in Scotland and the north of England a couple of years after the crash got underway in the south, holding up the headline national figure for declines).

    I think Spain is at the begining of a crash in property prices and they will follow the US as will the UK.

    Definition of Crash = Headline national stats over a 3 to 4 year period showing falls of between 15 and 20%. (which in turn means there will plenty that get down to -30 to -45% of their peaks.

    Nu Labour Tax and Spend debt driven economy socialist keep saying they want affordable housing…I think they’ll get it but by a different method than intended.

  • #77082
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    When th banks start to sell of repos at any reserve, then you will knoe its trouble. Until now its been a soft ride, but you can feel on the street that there are problems coming along.

    Valuations are coming in noticeably lower affecting investors who are unsure – such as Ashtondav. People will still buy for personal use and large funds/investors are buying too, providing its at rock bottom price – and they are getting it!

  • #77098
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    ” Must admit I found this sentence a bit ‘strange’ and unnecessarily bordering on the sarcastic?”

    Charlie, it was not meant to be sarcastic. I can however see how it came across and do not wish to apologize for it. What I was trying to say was that these petty thieves/robbers are looked down upon and the crime is blamed on the Eastern Europeans, Moroccans, South Americans etc. as if Spaniards do not do such things.

    In the late 70’s, I took my mom and her friends to see south of Spain in broad day light at a traffic light on the way to Cordoba our car was hit buy a brick and my mothers had bag was stolen from her lap.

    My mothers wedding ring was stolen. Due you think my mother cared where the robbers came from ? as far as she and her friends were are concerned they were robbed in Spain. My Spanish friends were very sad & upset and blamed the gypsies for the incident, they maywell have been right and insinuating that the Spaniards are not involved in any criminal, anti social activities.

    In my opinion whether it a white collar crime or not, a crime is a crime. A white collar crime has far more damaging social and economical consequences. These positions, jobs in Spain are not occupied by the nationalities already mentioned.

  • #77102
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @inez wrote:

    When th banks start to sell of repos at any reserve, then you will knoe its trouble. Until now its been a soft ride, but you can feel on the street that there are problems coming along.

    Valuations are coming in noticeably lower affecting investors who are unsure – such as Ashtondav. People will still buy for personal use and large funds/investors are buying too, providing its at rock bottom price – and they are getting it!

    Thats all true however I cant see workers working for less, cant see material costs going down, maybe land costs could go down but most of the land has already been sold. so how cheaply could you build a new house for psm and then add the land costs and some houses are already being sold for less than that

  • #77108
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Less construction, lower quality materials, if this was possible. smaller units comes to mind..

  • #77109
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I haven’t seen a “bargain” yet. I have seen reductions in houses that were vastly overpriced but not a genuine bargain! They are much talked about by agents, but, where are they? If anyone sees a genuine snip can they post it? (especially like the half price one mentioned on another thread 🙄 ) My opinion is that it is a new marketing ploy from the agents…bit like the old MFI sales!

  • #77110
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Katy

    From someone who is looking every day (at least 3hrs a day trawling the net) you are spot on, no real bargains yet on the CDS Marbella area, however I have noticed since Christmas a definate difference, I think it might have started.
    Of course it has been said many times on this forum that the first bargains will not reach the open market, they will be snapped up by those in the know, I think this is true.

    I have been meaning to start a new topic called “Post a genuine bargian” with the criteria being genuine reductions of 20-30% from window card, window card being from say June 2007.

    Given the above criteria there have been a number of genuine reductions lately, and belive it or not most are listed by our friends at Viva Estates, I do think that they have told there vendors “be realistic or we dont promote”, they have a beautifull townhouse reduced from 410 to 299 If it where sw facing not east it would be mine by now.

    Also, it has been said that certainly on the CDS wealthy european owners will not sell at a discounted price, they will just “lock it up and forget about it” rather then sell cheaply,this is also true.

    Intresting times ahead, as I said a few days ago, I think we will all know whats happening with resales on the CDS by May this year, it will be a lot clearer by then.

    Sorry about spelling etc

    My spell check has gone to bed

    Coming out again 26/1, going to spend a day with Inez.

    Regards

    Steve

  • #77115
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The property I sold was a bank reposession so it was on the market for a few days but obviously everyone is right in that your not likely to see those in a shop window, well not for very long anyway.

    I dont think I’ll see a deal as good as that again but this year I reckon 20-30% off is a possibillity but again I dont see these sales being public knowledge IMO because its only the people who are in real trouble that have to sell, most people dont need to sell and will just sit it out.

  • #77132
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Thanks charlie for noticing I wasn´t suggesting that the Spanish were robbing people merely what I´ve been told reliably by others about North Africans and Eastern Europeans who are much poorer and see others as richer and therfore targets, surely that could become the case in their own countries where I repeat many of the crooked Costa agents are now selling too.

    With such a poor exchange rate people will be paying another 10-12% for a grossly overpriced Spanish property on top of a similar amount for completion costs, maybe a similar amount for the selling agent´s commission, and with the UK market predicted to fall further IMO it doesn´t make sense for Brits etc to buy in the Costas for a long time.

    There are an awful lot of highly overpriced bog standard properties for sale in the Costas which are still poorly constructed of blockwork rendered over which cracks, paint constantly peeling, near graffiti work and little sound insulation from what I see.

    I personally don´t see how Spain can make it´s Costas look attractive again without knocking down and starting again with a lot of the developments, without a major price fall I can´t see the value in it.

    My opinion only or not.

  • #77152
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Steve – that genuine bargain would have to be less than 20-30% of 07 prices in my view. As you know prices have been all over the plave and with bank vals lowering already, they are still too high. I feel the banks are bringing vals back down in the hope that people will pay that price for them and the non residents will pay 80% and put money into the deal making it harder for them to walk away from it.

    However, even at the reductions in bank vals, I see the prices having to come back further, so you should be looking more towards 40%-45% reduction n 07 prices – in some cases more!!!

    Your townhouse is awaiting you……………………………… 😆

  • #77173
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    We bought in April last year if we had waited and bought now the same property would have cost us 16% more due to the exchange rate, so even if the property has reduce in price we are no worse off, and if what some say is correct and the pound continues to drop against the euro there will be little difference or even a benefit as the properties where we are are still selling at the original price at the moment.

  • #77177
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    If the pound continues to fall against the Euro then that will be the deciding factor for many people as to whether they will move to/ buy in Spain. People who have yet to complete due to no LFO’s are in a precarious position. 🙁

  • #77178
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Claire wrote:

    If the pound continues to fall against the Euro then that will be the deciding factor for many people as to whether they will move to/ buy in Spain. People who have yet to complete due to no LFO’s are in a precarious position. 🙁

    The problem is the Euro rate effects the whole of Europe and not just Spain but the Euro rate worries me much more than the current downturn in the Spanish housing market

  • #77201
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Claire wrote:

    If the pound continues to fall against the Euro then that will be the deciding factor for many people as to whether they will move to/ buy in Spain. People who have yet to complete due to no LFO’s are in a precarious position. 🙁

    The only people it will effect Claire are those who need to exchange £’s i.e. British as for the rest of Europe and eastern block countries it does not matter.

  • #77202
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Winners would be the ones who have just sold a property in Spain and need to convert back to Pounds. 8)

  • #77203
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    jwc wrote

    The only people it will effect Claire are those who need to exchange £’s i.e. British as for the rest of Europe and eastern block countries it does not matter.

    JWC, that is why I said if the pound continues to fall.

  • #77204
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Claire wrote:

    If the pound continues to fall against the Euro then that will be the deciding factor for many people as to whether they will move to/ buy in Spain.(

    Spot on for those who are thinking/in the process of buying this adds at the mo 10% if they have not already exchanged £’s into €’s – So that 20% reduction becomes a 10% reduction…!!!!

  • #77215
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The flucations in exchange rate are just financial games played by the markets to make money, exactly the same way as shares are bought and sold. Fundamentally there is a support level at which the pound is so undervalued that banks start buying again, unlike shares in which if the company has lost confidence the share price can freefall.

    If the £ falls any further then you could change your 2 bed apartment on the coast, where there is absolutely no industry, for a cheaper 2 bed flat around London, SE, etc where there is employment in any industry you care to think of.

    So I guess the pound will rise, as opposed to fall, (some time?) otherwise Spanaird’s will be buying British properties because they are cheaper than Spanish ones.

  • #77216
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    So I guess the pound will rise, as opposed to fall, (some time?) otherwise Spanaird’s will be buying British properties because they are cheaper than Spanish ones.

    They wouldn’t have to worry about being given two hours notice to vacate their home before it was bulldozed to a mound of rubble either!!

  • #77217
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Good point Claire 🙂

  • #77231
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    😥

    The pound is still falling against the euro so any Brit thinking of buying in Euroland inc Spain will soon be paying 15% more for the property.

    Speaking to an agent in Alhaurin the other day and he says if you see something advertised for 450-500k euros for example why not be as cheeky as you can with offers, even offer as low as 300k euros. He says little is selling in Spain and prices are definitely set to fall further.

    As for the UK market check this out www. propertysnake.co.uk which is a site dedicated to UK falling house prices as oposed to the term property ladder, discounts up to 49% now appearing, this site was mentioned on ITV last week where 3 experts are predicting prices to drop substantially over the next couple of years in the UK. All this will furthe raffect the Spanish property market.

    Spanish property is not worth buying yet unless you don´t mind this great risk as somewhere to live or holiday for years.

  • #77234
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I bought and sold last year, on the urbanisation where I sold in Calahonda I know of one more house for sale where the owner is willing to sell at 25% of what I received. I believe agents are making their clients fully aware of the need to be realistic with pricing, whether they take the advice or not is another subject.

  • #77265
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    Anonymous
    Participant
    gnik wrote:
    I bought and sold last year, on the urbanisation where I sold in Calahonda I know of one more house for sale where the owner is willing to sell at 25% of what I received. I believe agents are making their clients fully aware of the need to be realistic with pricing, whether they take the advice or not is another subject.

    They may be asking clients to be realistic in their pricing, but are the same agents being realistic with their inflated commission rate,how can they justify 5%-10% commission on sales?

  • #77270
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Of course estate agents will press their clients to reduce the price of their properties they need to make a living. Regarding their commission with less sales and more work for them to sell in todays climate I can’t see they will want to go down that path.

  • #77336
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    From what I gather here at the moment, it seems some of the smaller agents are genuinely telling clients the true state of the market, like make offers even a third less than asking prices, whereas the larger ones like Ocean Estates who were at the forefront of misleading people for years down here are still trying to say the market is good, or that this is a good time to buy.

    They are not to be trusted with a bargepole even after all their bad Pess!

    The market in Spain is dire and will be for years to come, prices have to come down as predicted by Bloomberg and others by up to 30%.

  • #77367
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Many agents will cut their commissions to secure a deal – we have always been 2.5%, thats for over 4 years and were reviled or it, but in doing so it has forced some agents to come down

    Interestingly enough I was offered a small development direct form the owner where there is a stipulated commission of only 3% not the 5+ that developers usually include in the price. However chummie wasnt too happy when we called and said great, but his prices were too high and if they came down by 30% we would promote them!!

  • #77424
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    😡

    I well remember when Ocean Estates were selling off-plan properties which included 30% commission, the S. Times corroborated this when they exposed them. This meant Ocean were selling for example 300k properties which were only worth 200k, plunging all their misled buyers into negative equity straightaway. They wouldn´t be charging only 5% now either, they´re too greedy!

  • #77432
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Think thats bad – I was contacted today by an agency in Spain, never heard of them before – for a house I had on my site. Understandably their 1st question was do we have a corroboration commission deal with you and what is the split.

    Now, as we are direct, we only charge 2.5%, not much to split but I will do so to turn a deal, which I told her.

    The answer was they usually charge 7% but if working with another agent wanted 5% minimum – for them!!!

    I think you can guess my response afterwards!

    Incredible!

  • #77508
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    According to Bloomberg again today, Spain´s economy which is property dependant mainly, as well as tourism, is teetering on the brink of recession and could collapse this year due to the property downturn which will get worse because now the exchange rate for Brits is another major factor, that´s if Brits can sell in the UK´s property downturn.

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