A messge to Mark Stucklin

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This topic contains 136 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Inez Inez 7 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #54770
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    Anonymous
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    I find the SPI to be a very informative forum for those in Spain, wanting to move to Spain and property owners who have issues in Spain. I have a rather strange request…..maybe it isn’t possible in these times. Would you consider digging a bit deeper and giving us a bit of good news! I am a property owner in Valencia who tries to remain positive with high hopes that the market will begin a slow return to normal in the 4Q 09 / 1Q 10.

    Maybe in all the doom and gloom you report so truthfully (I am not implying that you are a doom and gloomer) you could throw us a bit of good news occasionally! Please…

  • #90324
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @elizabeth C wrote:

    I find the SPI to be a very informative forum for those in Spain, wanting to move to Spain and property owners who have issues in Spain. I have a rather strange request…..maybe it isn’t possible in these times. Would you consider digging a bit deeper and giving us a bit of good news! I am a property owner in Valencia who tries to remain positive with high hopes that the market will begin a slow return to normal in the 4Q 09 / 1Q 10.

    Maybe in all the doom and gloom you report so truthfully (I am not implying that you are a doom and gloomer) you could throw us a bit of good news occasionally! Please…

    Please start yourself by giving us any good news from USA. We all know that the property prices there still fall like a rock as they did in the last 3 years. When the prices stabilize in USA, then count another 2 years and find the monent when property prices might stabilize in Spain.

    USA crash started in 2006, Spain crashe started in the honest in 2008.
    There is 2 year delay.

    Mark is very careful not to to appear doomy, there is no good news and won’t be for some time.

  • #90325
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Elizabeth C,

    It is not all doom and gloom – the sun shines in spain (well nearly always) and the cost of living compared to where I live (Ireland) is a lot cheaper. You have lovely beaches on your doorstep and the infrastructure in spain i.e. roads to me seem to be excellent. Look on the good side if you were buying in spain at present look at the value to be had!.

    Angela59

  • #90326
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m with Angela on this one – maybe the prices will go down… maybe you may want to wait another year or two before buying a home in Spain – but, do you want to waste another couple of years living in the UK or Ireland. A couple more winters?
    Don’t worry about the prices! If you can afford to buy in Spain then now is a good time. The sunny garden looks great from my window…

  • #90327
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    Anonymous
    Participant
    angela wrote:
    Hi Elizabeth C,

    It is not all doom and gloom – the sun shines in spain (well nearly always) and the cost of living compared to where I live (Ireland) is a lot cheaper. You have lovely beaches on your doorstep and the infrastructure in spain i.e. roads to me seem to be excellent. Look on the good side if you were buying in spain at present look at the value to be had!.

    😀

    Sorry Angela to add to the gloom, but in the Spanish newspaper ABC , today,there is an article which makes gloomy reading. Apparently after the subprime problem there are another two problems coming up in 2010, these are the “Alt -A” and “Arm”. These two mortgage products are American inventions and are accident waiting to happen, although American the whole world could be affected. The “Arm” problem could be as serious as the subprime , it is due to make 2010 and quite a bit of 2011, an ” annus horribilis”

    If true Spanish market to recover in 2013,14 ,15 ,16???

    Worldwide stockmarkets should all open sharply lower tomorrow, the recovery is still a long way off. The problem is the inmates are running the asylum,so do not rely on politicians to get us out of the mess, in a hurry.

  • #90328
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    USA crash started in 2006, Spain crashe started in the honest in 2008.
    There is 2 year delay.

    Mark is very careful not to to appear doomy, there is no good news and won’t be for some time.

    INMHO The crash in Spain did not start in 2008, prices were turning down from 2004 where they and the ‘boom’ resulting from the ‘gold credit card rush’ of interest in off plan deposit making all along the Costa’s had reached their peak.

    Spain has now had its own self made hell, of more than four years of torture in the property market, and the list of negatives that began to spill open in 2003/4 and long onward is too well known and too long to need repeating.

    But I was there last week, and my goodness the near completion of the new Airport in Malaga is an amazing sight to behold, and I think the whole expansion of infrastructure and development along the coast will eventually be seen to have married up to a doubling in capacity at the airport.

    Certainly what was there in the 1990’s couldn’t have coped. The decade started with a small cowshed of an airport that had a capacity for 4 million, then grew with the then spectacular Picasso terminal to 10 million and now incredibly will become I think the largest non hub airport in Europe with an ability to cope with 20 million visitors.

    There might eventually have been some method in the madness. This coupled with a complete and utter collapse in the so called emerging holiday home markets, may yet prove to herald a whole new interest in owning and using a holiday home in Spain that was prevalent before the full boom between 2000 – 2004.

    I don’t know if the future is golden, but it will certainly be sun filled, and as that has worked for Spain in the last 40 years I think it might work well over the next few decades as well.

    Prices are universally down across the board, interest rates are at an all time low, and when the flights start to pour in and costs along the Costa in every other sphere inevitably fall also, I think it may be seen that in some ways the recovery is already well under way.

    This doesn’t mean there isn’t some pain still to go through, just that we are finally through the worst. I hope that can at least be seen as something positive.

  • #90331
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    logan
    Participant

    Talking up the situation in Spain will not convince anyone but yourself. The worst is yet to come. Spain will likely default on it’s international debt obligations within the next year. Property has at least a 20% drop on the horizon. Unemployment will continue to rise.
    This is a decade long depression across the board, Europe, America and Asia.
    I am not a doom laden soothsayer, just a realist who studies markets. As George Soros said today ‘the worlds financial system is shot to pieces’.

  • #90332
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    Anonymous
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    @lenox wrote:

    I’m with Angela on this one – maybe the prices will go down… maybe you may want to wait another year or two before buying a home in Spain – but, do you want to waste another couple of years living in the UK or Ireland. A couple more winters?
    Don’t worry about the prices! If you can afford to buy in Spain then now is a good time. The sunny garden looks great from my window…

    Do you know anybody who would not wait 2 years to save at least 25% of the price (50K Euros for a 200K property)? I cannot imagine anybody being that impatient.

    On the other hand, I agree that that 25% reduction can be realised even now from a reaslistic seller.

  • #90333
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    Anonymous
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    With Spanish unemployment predicted to keep increasing until the peak in 2011 (at nearly 20%) we have a long way to fall.

    I then expect a few years of stagnation.

    So call back in 2013 or 2014 and there may be some good news!

  • #90335
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi,

    What country in the world is not feeling the impact of the recession at the moment. Ireland is as bad if not worse than spain at the moment. This recession has a way to go yet but spain has a few things going for it – tourism, climate and value for money along with good infrastructure. Hopefully though they will stop building acres of apartments and houses for a couple of years and then like Ireland maybe 3 years down the line the demand might come back.

    There is enough doom and gloom out there every day, we have to cheer ourselves up everyso ofter otherwise what’s the point of living!

    😀

  • #90336
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Talking up the situation in Spain will not convince anyone but yourself. The worst is yet to come. Spain will likely default on it’s international debt obligations within the next year. Property has at least a 20% drop on the horizon. Unemployment will continue to rise.
    This is a decade long depression across the board, Europe, America and Asia.
    I am not a doom laden soothsayer, just a realist who studies markets. As George Soros said today ‘the worlds financial system is shot to pieces’.

    I was trying to help out and dig a little deeper togive Elizabeth C just a bit of good news, which I think the new airport and higher volume numbers will provide, as they did in the past.

    I don’t dispute the fact that unemployment will continue to rise. I don’t know about Spain defaulting on its debt obligations or whether this will be a decade long depression, I think those things have to pan out, but I agree with you and George Soros, that it certainly does look like the financial system is shot to pieces.

    Yet I do know the weather was stunning last week when we had left a snow covered airport behind in the UK, I do know that as a family we had a superb week of golf, eating al fresco on the beach, and seeing old friends who seem to feel that at last the market has genuinely hit the bottom. And who are not as desperate or doom laden as you might believe from reading the UK press.

    Talking it up doesn’t really help I do agree, but I don’t think everyone is just ready to roll over and die, not there and not here in the UK either.

    Things are what they are, and every problem has a solution, and every solution provides an opportunity no?

    As there have been so many problems, perhaps underground there is a lot of energy, enthusiasm and activity going into providing lots of solutions.

  • #90337
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    Anonymous
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    @lenox wrote:

    … maybe you may want to wait another year or two before buying a home in Spain – but, do you want to waste another couple of years living in the UK or Ireland.

    It’s not necessary “to waste another couple of years”. If you have the money to buy and are able to leave UK, surely the solution is to stick your money somewhere safe bringing in some interest and simply rent while riding out the fall in prices. There are certainly tons of rentals out there for the choosing.
    To buy now rather than wait to me is madness, prices are only going one way in the foreseeable future.

    Elizabeth C has a (already reduced) 450,000 euro villa for sale. I have a feeling she may well need to reduce further before a sale is found.

  • #90338
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    Anonymous
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    “……and seeing old friends who seem to feel that at last the market has genuinely hit the bottom”.

    Definition of denial:
    Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

  • #90339
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    Anonymous
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    charlie wrote:
    lenox wrote:
    … maybe you may want to wait another year or two before buying a home in Spain – but, do you want to waste another couple of years living in the UK or Ireland.

    It’s not necessary “to waste another couple of years”. If you have the money to buy and are able to leave UK, surely the solution is to stick your money somewhere safe bringing in some interest and simply rent while riding out the fall in prices. There are certainly tons of rentals out there for the choosing.
    To buy now rather than wait to me is madness, prices are only going one way in the foreseeable future.

    Elizabeth C has a (already reduced) 450,000 euro villa for sale. I have a feeling she may well need to reduce further before a sale is found.

    “To buy now rather than wait is madness” absolutely right, Spain can build futuristic airports, spend fortunes promoting Spain at travel fairs, but whilst most people have no money to spend and if they do have money they can go to plenty of other places for half the cost of coming to Spain.
    What Spain needs to do is rebuild its image, stop property rip offs, train people in the tourist industry properly , in my opinion the level of service in the tourist industry has gone down in proportion to the rise in prices. To attract the Brits back the pound needs to rise to levels of 140-150 to the euro.

    Getting back to property, with so much rubbish on the market which is impossible to sell at any price, the future is bleak.

  • #90340
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    Anonymous
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    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    and seeing old friends who seem to feel that at last the market has genuinely hit the bottom. And who are not as desperate or doom laden as you might believe from reading the UK press.

    .

    “genuinely hit the bottom”? Your friends definitely are Estate Agents or Developers. Or very uninformed persons…

    Tell them the following (taken from some Telegraph article):

    “The banks are highly exposed to the Spanish housing market. After rising 270pc since 1995, house prices have begun to fall in parts of northern Spain, slipping 2.1pc in Barcelona and Madrid so far this year. Over 98pc of all mortgages are priced off floating Libor rates, causing mortgage payments to almost double in under two years. Construction has reached 18pc of GDP, more than Germany (15pc) at the height of the reunification boom.
    David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said Spain was in danger of a serious crisis. “House prices may fall, but what is even worse is that the corporate sector’s deficit has grown so large that it needs to find financing equivalent to 10pc of GDP every quarter just to stand still,” he said.”

    The 270pc increase since 1995 is to compared to the expected 100% from a normal 5% per year. That means that say a 50K apartment in 1995 is supposed to cost now 100K. But the 270pc increase means that the same apartment costs now 185K (at least costed that much at the top).
    So a 45%decrease from top to bottom during the crash will only ensure a return to the average, nothing more. The fact that things usually overshoot on the way down , together with the 20% expected unemployment, will ensure an average of 50% decrease from top to bottom.

  • #90341
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    Anonymous
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    @135yearswaiting wrote:

    Getting back to property, with so much rubbish on the market which is impossible to sell at any price, the future is bleak.

    I agree with that, an issue in my area is a shortage of property for sale that is really suitable to live in full-time. Plenty of poorly built rubbish, that is just too small, some of which is now getting cheap. And I guess they are OK for holiday homes, but not much else.

    IMHO Spain is a bad place to buy now, and anyone who does needs to get a REALLY strong deal to justify the risk.

    Sorry, I just do not see any good news here ATM 🙁

  • #90342
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Everyone is talking about the price of the property, what I think is more important in the short term in the value of the £/euro. In discussions at the weekend with people who seem to have some insight (if there are such people) into this the consensus of opinion was that the euro would fall sharply against other currencies and indeed one said it would crash. Timescale??

    We bought our apartment almost 2 years ago 1.51, had we waited until today even with the fall in property prices it would cost us more.

  • #90343
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    Anonymous
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    The value of the pound/euro has some effect, but not all buyers are brits, the Spanish property market is mostly about Spanish buyers.

    If the pound comes back (against the euro), then Spanish property will look more attractive to UK buyers, but I do think that the current crisis will have done long term damage to this market. So overall, I don’t think that Forex will make much difference.

  • #90344
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    Anonymous
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    Elizabeth,

    I’m sorry that I don’t have more good news to report, but that’s the way it is right now. The deeper I dig, the worse it gets.

    This is not the first time I’ve been asked to cheer up my news reporting, though it is certainly the nicest, politest request (usually it is more like hate mail accusing me of talking down the market). But 95% of the news I report here and in my Spanish property buff blog comes from the Spanish press, so I’m mainly translating and interpreting the news, not making it (one person cannot originate news covering the whole property market). You read here what Spaniards read every day in the papers, and I think it is important that non-Spanish speakers get access to the same information.

    When the news gets better, you’ll see it reflected here. Rest assured I’ll be the first to leap on a scrap of good news when I see it.

    In the meantime, I will try harder to winkle out some good news, but it won’t be in the pages of the Spanish press, I can tell you that.

    Mark

  • #90345
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Some interesting figures for arrivals at Málaga Airport for January 2009 (compared to Jan 2008):

    British – down 13.2%
    Germans down 19.2%
    Dutch down 10.7%
    French down 14.4%
    Belgians down 18.9%
    Danish down 23.8%
    Italians down 39.8%
    Norwegians down 29%
    Swedish down 60.3%
    Swiss down 4.14%
    National travellers down 27.2%

    ……but Irish travellers are up 7.2%.
    (is this because of the euro in their pocket?)

    It would be interesting to know whether this drop in visitors compared to last year is to do with
    lack of interest in purchasing
    whether they’re holidaying elsewhere
    not going anywhere due to credit crunch.

  • #90346
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    El anciano, couldn´t agree more.

    For a variety of reasons, not least its language, this site is much more British orientated than the Spanish property market itself. That isn´t a criticism, just a statement of fact.

    Yes those from the British/Sterling area have always been a significant players in the Spanish market but they do not make or break it alone.

  • #90347
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    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Some interesting figures for arrivals at Málaga Airport for January 2009 (compared to Jan 2008):

    It would be interesting to know whether this drop in visitors compared to last year is to do with
    lack of interest in purchasing
    whether they’re holidaying elsewhere
    not going anywhere due to credit crunch.

    Well i know in regards to the spanish, the new AVE lines have stolen some trade from the airports

  • #90348
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    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    It’s not necessary “to waste another couple of years”. If you have the money to buy and are able to leave UK, surely the solution is to stick your money somewhere safe bringing in some interest and simply rent while riding out the fall in prices. There are certainly tons of rentals out there for the choosing.
    To buy now rather than wait to me is madness, prices are only going one way in the foreseeable future.

    Where does one stick one’s money that is safe today?

    Where does one bring in some interest, that is actually not a loss when taken against underlying inflation?

    Why would one give one’s money to someone to rent rather than own?

    Who says that prices are only going one way at present?

    So do you wait for an exciting well reported uplift in the market? When there is a general consensus rush to get back into the market?

    I dug out a couple of Warren Buffett quotes, I may use here and elsewhere you may shoot them down or reverse them back, but do they have relevance?

    This one for instance:

    Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.

    So do you now follow the herd and invest somewhere safe and earn your interest, and pay someone else a rent for the privilege of use? Is that truly the thing to do?

    Can you really do well at that? Hasn’t the past year shown us that nowhere can be truly considered safe? And what level of interest are you going to get and how much of that are you going to use to rent?

    Again, Elizabeth was looking for something positive here, and I hope to keep on trying to provide it.

    I became aware of a property beachside in Marbella that was sold two weeks ago for €183,000 it was sold by a vendor who had 24 hours left to effect a sale or face repossession and further costs, hassle, legal issues etc with the bank. A Spanish family bought it, and the bank was happy to effect a transfer of the mortgage.

    This was in a development where prices previously had reached over €360,000 for similar units when it was an off plan project some 5 years or so ago.

    Where better that money? In a bank, earning what safe interest exactly, in then paying rent, or being used to provide a sea view on 300 sunshine days a year to be used and enjoyed?

    And at an historically low mortgage rate. Where is the smart money here?

    Or pass up the opportunity to wait several years, have no use, no pleasure and pay a goodly sum more, perhaps more than double once again? And at what interest then I wonder? And at what loss of potential capital growth over the next few years?

    It is not all doom and gloom folks, it actually is the bottom of the market, you just have to know the value of things as well as the price.

  • #90350
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    “……and seeing old friends who seem to feel that at last the market has genuinely hit the bottom”.

    Definition of denial:
    Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

    A good definition indeed Charlie, and a point well made.

    Does it not also equally apply when some people are buying at exceptional prices, getting incredible value and use as in the case of the Spanish family I have just posted about?

    They have a purchase price at or below 50% of its one time sale value.

    They have taken over a mortgage with small investment in relation to the price, they have an interest rate at an historically low level, they simply can’t lose here.

    Are you perhaps in denial about that fact? Do you reject it as an untrue? Is it too uncomfortable for you to consider anything other than placing money safely and earning a low interest?

    Swings and roundabouts I know, I think you are absolutely right in your caution and concern, but perhaps absolutely wrong to also deny that for some the timing is perfect to buy, rather than wait.

  • #90351
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Not sure the expansion of the airport is such a good thing at Malaga. Spain hoping to bring further hoardes of holidaymakers and housebuyers to an already overdeveloped, overcrowded Costa Del Sol. It’s just too busy on the roads already, it’s a bit of a nightmare that will get worse.

    Prices have further to fall, many properties are still overpriced, cranes lie idle on unfinished sites, the coastline is ruined aesthetically (for greed), crime is still a problem, golf is too expensive, Bank costs are prohibitive, still too many dodgy agents, lawyers and developers, cost of living is not that much different to the UK, exchange rates make buying for Brits, prohibitive and suicidal, water problems to get worse, Court procedures take years, the Government do virtually nothing to ensure proper regulation of property, backhanders still rife.

    But the good news is, the sun shines more in Spain 😉

  • #90353
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Where does one stick one’s money that is safe today?
    In a bank like mine that was strictly regulated not to expose itself to silly risky lending.

    Where does one bring in some interest, that is actually not a loss when taken against underlying inflation?
    5% is better than a poke in the eye with a long pointy stick. I don’t have the knowledge to comment on ‘underlying inflation’ but this situation seems better than having my money tied up in a property that is going down in value by the month.

    Why would one give one’s money to someone to rent rather than own?
    When the interest more than covers the rent and bills, at least my capital is standing still rather than sinking downwards. Am renting a lovely villa, sea/mountain views without a care in the world (no maintenance costs, taxes etc.)

    Who says that prices are only going one way at present?
    Most of the world?

    So do you wait for an exciting well reported uplift in the market?
    That’s the idea.
    When there is a general consensus rush to get back into the market?
    😯 Must have blinked and missed it.

    I dug out a couple of Warren Buffett quotes, I may use here and elsewhere you may shoot them down or reverse them back, but do they have relevance?
    This one for instance:
    Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.
    Stocks are a different cup of tea. Like BAE Systems, they can shoot up 10% overnight as a result of some good news. It’s all about sentiment at the time which is why property is just on a downhill slide at the moment.

    So do you now follow the herd and invest somewhere safe and earn your interest, and pay someone else a rent for the privilege of use? Is that truly the thing to do?
    It is in my case over the last couple of years. Haven’t lost a penny in capital/equity. Would having had it tied up in property have done that for me?

    Can you really do well at that? Hasn’t the past year shown us that nowhere can be truly considered safe? And what level of interest are you going to get and how much of that are you going to use to rent?
    I refer the honourable gentleman to my previous answer.

    Again, Elizabeth was looking for something positive here, and I hope to keep on trying to provide it.
    Your perogative Chris. I prefer sticking to what I feel is the reality in a situation, hence when weighing everything up – my opinion is it’s best to rent, not buy at the moment.

    I became aware of a property beachside in Marbella that was sold two weeks ago for €183,000 it was sold by a vendor who had 24 hours left to effect a sale or face repossession and further costs, hassle, legal issues etc with the bank. A Spanish family bought it, and the bank was happy to effect a transfer of the mortgage.
    This was in a development where prices previously had reached over €360,000 for similar units when it was an off plan project some 5 years or so ago.
    There are obviously going to be times where something is an unquestionable bargain – especially in a last-minute repossession situation. However I wouldn’t say the average buyer in general is lucky enough to have this type of opportunity laid at their feet…..give it another couple of years maybe when there’ll be more of these situations around.

    Where better that money? In a bank, earning what safe interest exactly, in then paying rent, or being used to provide a sea view on 300 sunshine days a year to be used and enjoyed?
    Depends on an individual’s priority. Mine at the moment is preserving my equity.

    And at an historically low mortgage rate. Where is the smart money here?
    In two years time I expect to have at the very least the same amount of money as I have now. I firmly believe this will not happen if I buy a property now. Time will tell if I’m being smart, but currently I am simply content that my money is in a bank, not in property and not going down.

    Or pass up the opportunity to wait several years, have no use, no pleasure and pay a goodly sum more, perhaps more than double once again? And at what interest then I wonder? And at what loss of potential capital growth over the next few years?

    It is not all doom and gloom folks, it actually is the bottom of the market, you just have to know the value of things as well as the price.
    Sorry Chris but we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one. The bottom of the market? No way, Jose, you really can’t be serious?

  • #90354
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    The trouble with your silver lining scenario Chris is that there are currently very few properties on offer at 50% less than they were a few years ago. If there were I would have bought by now. Like, I suspect, many others I´m currently sitting on my money waiting for the market prices to reflect reality. The asking price of the vast majority of properties on the market is way too high at present.

    Also Elizabeth, the OP, could probably sell her property if she priced it at 50% of the 2005 value. I don´t think however she´d see that as a silver lining.

  • #90355
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Is it too uncomfortable for you to consider anything other than placing money safely and earning a low interest?

    Yes, especially if you are suggesting the alternative is to buy property.
    Though I was tempted by gold futures when it was 750 in Dec. – oh for hindsight and not such a nervous tum.

  • #90356
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Chris, your comment that ‘it really is the bottom of the market now’ sounds so much like that of your Viva days when agents will say anything to talk the market up. It’s very doubtful that Spain and the UK have reached anything like the bottom of the market yet, for that reason I won’t be investing! 😉

  • #90357
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    charlie

    I think you about right. I see the sense in buying before everyone jumps on the bandwagon, but I really can’t help thinking the s**t may well not have really hit the fan yet in Spain? I don’t think the Spanish government are still facing up to several well reported issues that have done so much damage to confidence, and without big change, I wonder if Spain will really recover?.

  • #90358
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I became aware of a property beachside in Marbella that was sold two weeks ago for €183,000 it was sold by a vendor who had 24 hours left to effect a sale or face repossession and further costs, hassle, legal issues etc with the bank. A Spanish family bought it, and the bank was happy to effect a transfer of the mortgage.

    It is not all doom and gloom folks, it actually is the bottom of the market, you just have to know the value of things as well as the price.

    If you want to have credibiility, please give us a list of 5 properties which are (in your opinion) at the bottom of the prices. Location, name of the development , current price and top price please.

    Then we can discuss whether we believe they are good deals or not.

  • #90359
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Tell them the following (taken from some Telegraph article):

    “The banks are highly exposed to the Spanish housing market. After rising 270pc since 1995…
    David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said Spain was in danger of a serious crisis….
    The 270pc increase since 1995 is to compared to the expected 100% from a normal 5% per year…..

    I think you make some excellent comments Flosmichael, and heaven forbid I would offend you, but I am a bit cautious about going by what the Telegraph has to say, or economists from any banking group for that matter.

    I have always valued Mark’s view on the market, most especially as he was voicing concerns and a great deal of caution when the market was at its peak, but then I remember reading and sending Mark one time a wonderful upbeat report on the Spanish economy and its construction sector by Deutsche Bank as late as 06 or even early 07, which was complete and utter tosh as it turned out, and therefore another Warren Buffett quote goes:

    “Let blockheads read, what blockheads wrote”

    The Telegraph still trumpets overseas property purchases every week, and when it comes to cliches and quotes what about the one about, statistics, statistics and damned lies.

    I wouldn’t trust a short, mid or long term report from some suit in a bank for the next decade at least. Wonder what bonus he or she is on for going short, going long, underselling, leveraging or advising?

    Do they know their proverbial from their elbow?

    One fascinating but not much picked upon comment from the recent grilling that the heads of the major UK banks got in the Parlimentary select committee which was televised was… now get this… not one of the heads of our major banks has a formal banking qualification between them!

    Who are we listening to and being advised by exactly?

    Getting back to demonstrating something positive for Elizabeth is my concern, not just quoting endless stats, that are perhaps how out of date?

    My friends are on the ground and surviving in the same manner as my friends here in the UK.

    And a final Warren Buffett quote about doing business in a pessimistic market, rather than an upbeat one…

    “The most common cause of low prices is pessimism – some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”

  • #90360
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Chris, your comment that ‘it really is the bottom of the market now’ sounds so much like that of your Viva days when agents will say anything to talk the market up. It’s very doubtful that Spain and the UK have reached anything like the bottom of the market yet, for that reason I won’t be investing! 😉

    Hi Angie,

    I hear you on that, and I sincerely hope I am not simply trying to talk the market up, but when you see certain properties being sold at certain prices, that physically can go no lower – that for me has to be the bottom of the market.

    This does not mean of course that many people are still trying, and will always try to sell at prices that are in no way a reflection of the bottom of the market, it is a question of time, opportunity and research I suppose.

    And I would counsel no one to buy anything that they would not feel comfortable owning and certainly using for several years at least.

  • #90361
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    at certain prices, that physically can go no lower

    😀 Sounds like the stuff agents have been saying to me for the last few years. Sorry to be rude, but that’s just nonsense.

  • #90362
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Getting back to demonstrating something positive for Elizabeth is my concern, not just quoting endless stats, that are perhaps how out of date?

    My friends are on the ground and surviving in the same manner as my friends here in the UK.

    And a final Warren Buffett quote about doing business in a pessimistic market, rather than an upbeat one…

    “The most common cause of low prices is pessimism – some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”

    Firstly, Warren Buffett lost about 25% of his wealth in the last year. So even the Omaha guru cannot handle this crisis very well… He might use his knowledge from the previous crisis, but he has not invested through the Great Depression which is the most similar to what we have now.

    Elisabeth should know better as she lives in USA. Prices in California are off by 80% in some areas and by 50% in some desirable areas. Same in Florida. One of her big problems is that the Euro lost about 25% of its value versus $ in the last year so
    she lost about $100K just from the exchange rate.

  • #90363
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    If you want to have credibiility, please give us a list of 5 properties which are (in your opinion) at the bottom of the prices. Location, name of the development , current price and top price please.

    Then we can discuss whether we believe they are good deals or not.

    I really can’t go there with that one Flosmichael.

    That would be a commercial posting I think.

    I simply believe that there are different times for different people.

    I think Charlie, Angie, Brianc_li, Goodstich 44 and yourself are entirely correct, logical and eminently sensible in your views and comments.

    But for the sake of Elizabeth, I am sorry I don’t think it is over for Spain, I have heard that and seen it before in the late 80’s, I think what goes around comes around, and certainly the place has taken its right and fair share of a hammering.

    However, it will go around again, and the sun will continue to shine and the place be all the better for all of its (deserved) travails and heaven help me I just love it for all its faults.

    And I don’t think I am alone in that.

  • #90364
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @El anciano wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    at certain prices, that physically can go no lower

    😀 Sounds like the stuff agents have been saying to me for the last few years. Sorry to be rude, but that’s just nonsense.

    No offence taken El anciano, to clarify however, there are some – and I only mean some – certain prices that physically can’t go lower.

    There is a price point at which no bank, or private owner will not drop below, this being where they would actually be paying you to take the property.

    I am not advocating a mad rush to the Costas’s here, and if you talk to agents at any time, over the last few years, now or even the next few years, they will be telling you the same. That is their role, so love them or leave them but at some point – now or then – they will be right.

    How you going to know when that time is?

  • #90365
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    There is a price point at which no bank, or private owner will not drop below, this being where they would actually be paying you to take the property.

    There is no such point. The price paid for property is the market value.

    Santander has a 2.5 billion Euros worth of foreclosed property. These are money they cannot use and are stuck. Be sure they will eventually decrease the prices such that they can dump the properties and use the money.

    Why do you think land in Florida went from $30K to $3K (10 times lower) in 3 years?
    Why do you think some properties in Las Vegas went 6 times lower between 2006 and 2009?

    Do you think the market rules do not apply to Spain?

  • #90366
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    There is a price point at which no bank, or private owner will not drop below, this being where they would actually be paying you to take the property.

    There is no such point. The price paid for property is the market value.

    Santander has a 2.5 billion Euros worth of foreclosed property. These are money they cannot use and are stuck. Be sure they will eventually decrease the prices such that they can dump the properties and use the money.

    Why do you think land in Florida went from $30K to $3K (10 times lower) in 3 years?
    Why do you think some properties in Las Vegas went 6 times lower between 2006 and 2009?

    Do you think the market rules do not apply to Spain?

    I think the price paid for property is that which the seller is prepared to accept. What one seller accepts today is not necessarily the market value, in fact it might be seen as a circumstance that allows a particular buyer here or there to buy – at below market value – which is often percieved as a good buy in most peoples eyes.

    I rather think, that the Spanish banks will play with their balance sheets and bend whatever rules they have to, to turn liabilities into assets on their books, and if that means they hold inventory for years – or some other form of bank paper origami – which they have had a history of in the past – then that is exactly what they will do.

    The banks have been making their own rules for years, as we have so tragically seen in the past year, and I don’t think we can stop them doing so, and I don’t think you will find them dumping property to the advantage of you or I, or any other person on a willy nilly basis., just so they can get their hands on some money. I think the governments have already given them plenty of taxpayers money for their bad debts.

    And as I understand it, many Spanish banks made absolute fortunes by holding for value, on real estate properties across the country from the last crash to the mid 90’s. I rather think they plan to do so again.

    As for land in Florida and prices in Vegas I really can’t comment, I don’t know enough about those areas but I am aware that traditionally real estate has not operated in the same way in the US as it has in Europe.

  • #90367
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I think the price paid for property is that which the seller is prepared to accept. What one seller accepts today is not necessarily the market value, in fact it might be seen as a circumstance that allows a particular buyer here or there to buy – at below market value – which is often percieved as a good buy in most peoples eyes.

    I rather think, that the Spanish banks will play with their balance sheets and bend whatever rules they have to, to turn liabilities into assets on their books, and if that means they hold inventory for years – or some other form of bank paper origami – which they have had a history of in the past – then that is exactly what they will do.

    The banks have been making their own rules for years, as we have so tragically seen in the past year, and I don’t think we can stop them doing so, and I don’t think you will find them dumping property to the advantage of you or I, or any other person on a willy nilly basis., just so they can get their hands on some money. I think the governments have already given them plenty of taxpayers money for their bad debts.

    And as I understand it, many Spanish banks made absolute fortunes by holding for value, on real estate properties across the country from the last crash to the mid 90’s. I rather think they plan to do so again.

    This situation is different. I do not think the banks ever had properties at the level of tens of billions of Euros.

    Besides, there are 1 million properties unocupied.

    Sellers will be forced to accept the market value. Before they realize this, it is still the denial phase. The fear phase will then start and will lead to the capitulation phase.

    It is very premature for anybody to buy when the denial phase still exists.

  • #90368
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Having read and re-read the rapidly increasing post to this thread in an effort to see which side of the fence I am on, I have decided that Chris is not far from the reality of things.

    Firstly, yes of course I am a property agent and, like Chris, I am in touch with the wretched market and its effects. I read statistics carefully, but only to help me form an opinion after taking many other things into consideration.

    As Bernard once said on this forum, “statistics are like a bikini, they reveal what is interesting, but, hide what is vital”! How true!

    The swaying factor in Chris’ remarks are “physically” – as I have said before, if mortgages are 70-90% on any one property, then the remaining 10-30% remaining equity is the only margin for actual reductions.

    I would guess that at any one time, around 50% of Spainsh housing stock is for sale, and perhaps 50% of those are mortgaged quite highly. Therefore, perhaps only 25% of all of the Spanish housing stock can be sold off for more than 25% reductions. Even then a reasonable percentage of those owners will be in a position to sit it out.

    I agree that Spain, like the UK and the rest of Europe will certainly see their respective economies shrink still further for several years, jobs will be lost and families will suffer, but there is a physical limit as to how far property prices can fall. Unlike the great depression where there were fewer properties mortgaged, this present recession sees a huge percentage of properties mortgaged and charged to the hilt, and for that reason, respective price reductions will reflect that in the “physical limit”.

    In essence, and putting bad agents to one side, an experienced proffesional property agent should and will have his/her finger on the pulse of prevailing market conditions, far more so than journalists and financial economists, both will ask our opinions when compiling an article or report, therefore I trust my “agents opinion” far more than those who put their own spin on the facts to please editors or government/bank political persuasions.

    I must stress these are my opinions and I accept not the prevailing opinion of most on this thread.

  • #90369
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris and Peter
    So after all the analysis above, are you disagreeing with flosmichael and myself that now is ‘very premature for anybody to buy’?
    I’m talking purely price-wise, not the proverbial ‘lifestyle’ reasons.

  • #90370
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Prof. Robert Shiller is the big housing market price guru, here’s what he has to say, mainly talking about the US, but the bubble was greater in Spain.

  • #90371
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Chris and Peter
    So after all the analysis above, are you disagreeing with flosmichael and myself that now is ‘very premature for anybody to buy’?
    I’m talking purely price-wise, not the proverbial ‘lifestyle’ reasons.

    Answering for myself Charlie, it would be Yes & NO 🙂

    I wouldn’t buy for investment, I would buy a family home (at the right price – 40-50% lower than 2005/6 rather than rent the equivelant at say €1000 pcm, which, if I waited another 18-36 months would cost me up to €36, 000+.

    But, and here is the big BUT!!, If my money was in Euros, I would be totally confident in the above, however, if my money was in Sterling, then I would hold off until the middle of the year to see if the Euro collapses as spectacularly as is predicted.

    Yet again, if I came across a property at 70% less than 2005/6 prices, I would throw caution to the wind and convert Stirling to Euros and buy for investment with a 5 year view.

    So, yes and no does make some sense, to me at least.

  • #90372
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    Prof. Robert Shiller is the big housing market price guru, here’s what he has to say, mainly talking about the US, but the bubble was greater in Spain.

    Yes Mark, as expected from the great guru’s – gobbledygook 😀 😀

  • #90373
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peter Good wrote:

    I wouldn’t buy for investment, I would buy a family home (at the right price – 40-50% lower than 2005/6 rather than rent the equivelant at say €1000 pcm, which, if I waited another 18-36 months would cost me up to €36, 000+.

    But, and here is the big BUT!!, If my money was in Euros, I would be totally confident in the above, however, if my money was in Sterling, then I would hold off until the middle of the year to see if the Euro collapses as spectacularly as is predicted.

    Yet again, if I came across a property at 70% less than 2005/6 prices, I would throw caution to the wind and convert Stirling to Euros and buy for investment with a 5 year view.

    Peter, I almost agree with what you say.

    One single question: if a property is 70% less than 2005/6 price, wouldn’t you be afraid that the respective development might simply be abandoned in the future? The potential
    neigbors who pay mortgage for the full 2005/6 price would be devastated to know that
    they paid 70% more 3 years ago…

  • #90374
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @peter Good wrote:
    I wouldn’t buy for investment, I would buy a family home (at the right price – 40-50% lower than 2005/6 rather than rent the equivelant at say €1000 pcm, which, if I waited another 18-36 months would cost me up to €36, 000+.

    But, and here is the big BUT!!, If my money was in Euros, I would be totally confident in the above, however, if my money was in Sterling, then I would hold off until the middle of the year to see if the Euro collapses as spectacularly as is predicted.

    Yet again, if I came across a property at 70% less than 2005/6 prices, I would throw caution to the wind and convert Stirling to Euros and buy for investment with a 5 year view.

    Peter, I almost agree with what you say.

    One single question: if a property is 70% less than 2005/6 price, wouldn’t you be afraid that the respective development might simply be abandoned in the future? The potential
    neigbors who pay mortgage for the full 2005/6 price would be devastated to know that
    they paid 70% more 3 years ago…

    I see where you are heading flosmichael, but, as is often the case, there would be further criteria than just price. It would need to be a fully sold or 90% sold urb etc. I certainly wouldn’t care if there were 50% non-contributors to the community, as with so few in residence, I would no doubt be President and have their houses embargoed for non payment of community fees. Moreover, I would get the pool to myself and have no drunken neighbours to worry about at nights. I live in the countryside here in Spain, few neighbours except for birds, trees and insects, just how I like it. Having lived in the Outer Hebrides for 6 years, solitude and a baron landscape pleases me.

    With regards to neigbours being devastated as to my price, I would say, they are hardly likely to find out what I had paid, I’m not the sort of person to go into bars, or antagonise others. But should anyone be so devastated in anyway, then not being too PC in todays blame denial society, I would stay indoors and fiddle with my Forex platform until they returned to the UK.

    Sorry but I can’t take responsibilty for everyones mis-fortune, I have rather enough of my own to be getting on with.

  • #90375
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    This situation is different. I do not think the banks ever had properties at the level of tens of billions of Euros.
    Besides, there are 1 million properties unocupied.
    Sellers will be forced to accept the market value. Before they realize this, it is still the denial phase. The fear phase will then start and will lead to the capitulation phase.
    It is very premature for anybody to buy when the denial phase still exists.

    You may indeed be right, on a mass basis I think you are certainly right, and if and when the capitulation phase comes around, well, will there be enough buyers with mass interest?

    I think we may be at cross purposes here Flosmichael, I am certainly not talking up mass buying potential, I just think for a person here and there buying with a specific criteria, there is a market and an opportunity.

    So for the rest of us we await mass capitualtion, all pile in again, off with the rush to another boom and then another inevitable bust all in what say 10 years?

    Or does history always have to repeat itself?

  • #90376
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    You may indeed be right, on a mass basis I think you are certainly right, and if and when the capitulation phase comes around, well, will there be enough buyers with mass interest?

    So for the rest of us we await mass capitualtion, all pile in again, off with the rush to another boom and then another inevitable bust all in what say 10 years?

    Or does history always have to repeat itself?

    Hi Chris,

    the problem here is the human nature.

    There was no reason for anybody to buy in Spain in 2005 to 2007, prices were way too high (same in USA in 2005-2006 or UK in 2006-2007). But people still did it, because they were afraid they might lose out…

    Near the bottom of the crash, prices will be so afordable that there will be little reason not to buy for somebody interested in property in Spain. But few people will do it because they will be afraid to overpay.

    Then, 4-5 years after the bottom of the crash people will be again afraid to not lose out and overpay, etc, etc, etc.

  • #90377
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Chris and Peter
    So after all the analysis above, are you disagreeing with flosmichael and myself that now is ‘very premature for anybody to buy’?
    I’m talking purely price-wise, not the proverbial ‘lifestyle’ reasons.

    Hi Charlie,

    I think this has been a thoroughly good and enjoyable debate, and has kept me occupied on and off for much of the day, much to the chagrin of my wife who has been periodically trying to get me to get off SPI and search the internet to buy some new furniture – because she thinks now is the time to buy in that market!

    However to your question: I wholeheartedly agree that now is a premature time for the majority of people to consider buying purely on price alone, which suggests they would be doing so for assured or relatively assured investment purposes.

    In that instance I am with you, I would leave my money in the bank for a while yet and take the interest. That is the safe bet and with everything that has happened in the past year or so then safe is good with me for now.

    To be frank, I never really understood the pure investment buying thing at all really, I was never an agent who said buy today, triple your money tomorrow but then I was personally never that good at investing in anything full stop .

    As it happens however, in the early days of the last boom, people did get in early, the risk takers, they did the whole flip to win thing, and they started a boom that went on and on, and on again.

    Now we see the consequences, but it is not just Spain is it, as I think Angie was pointing out earlier, look at the massive buy to let hype that took place and the people who have been devastated by that in the UK.

    Some of those training seminars on becoming a Property Millionaire left the Spanish Agents look like rank amateurs really.

    Again, I think I might have misled everyone or put myself at cross purposes here, we have a fantastic fish and chip shop here in Harrogate, up on a board inside it uses the quote:

    “He who goes by price alone, becomes the willing victim of he who sets his stall out by price alone…”

    Or something like that.

    I am not actually talking about price all the time. I am thinking that if one goes out into the market to buy, and looks for value, real value which comes from something being affordable firstly, then also the best available in your price range, and is something you can use and enjoy – then there is a bottom of the market moment here I believe.

    And believe it or not, there are people looking, there are people who feel that perhaps their money, or a portion of their money would be well invested in their lifestyle and use, whom have either the capital or available equity to convert into a second home in Spain.

    These are people who have been dreaming of doing so for many years.

    Now there are certainly not as many of them as there were, but then there are not as many agents, developers, lawyer and the like to fleece or confuse them either.

    And for these people, there are interesting options and possibilities, that may well turn out to be good investments in the long term, but great investments in pleasure and access right now.

    We really did have a great time as a family in Spain last week and so did most of the people we met there, it is a great place to be and people will always want to move there or spend quality time there, and will ever be interested to buy there.

    I am here for Elizabeth, saying it is not all doom and gloom, but hopefully giving you your due and saying you are not wrong either.

  • #90378
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Hi Chris,

    the problem here is the human nature.

    There was no reason for anybody to buy in Spain in 2005 to 2007, prices were way too high (same in USA in 2005-2006 or UK in 2006-2007). But people still did it, because they were afraid they might lose out…

    But surely, no one, well very few at least, could have predicted where prices would peak, we would all be millionaires if that were the case.

    This is the whole point, property prices are only part of the equation when buying overseas. Exchange rate is a huge factor. Then there is location (some locations buck the trend, or at least suffer less). Then there is personal circimstance, need to sell, need to buy etc.

    All markets are suceptible to fair-weather-friends. They are the ones that cause the boom and cause the bust, meanwhile we agents have to carry on earning a living and so do our staff and service providers such as; air-con installers, furniture suppliers, gardeners etc. etc.

    Lives and markets have to move on, people still have to eat and staff still require jobs. The loss of confidence in the worlds markets and commodities, be they orange juice, coffee, gold, oil, property or stocks and shares, are just that – Loss of Confidence”

    We live our lives through paper values and bragging-rights, every so often, those braggers and paper millionaires suddenly decide not to believe their own clap-trap. They will lose money, and they will take the stable innocents with them.

    The fact is, history will repeat itself, confidence will return along with the fair-weather-friends and on and on it goes.

    Those who get in first will reap the benifits, they are often the gamblers, those who come in at the end will lose everything as usual, the timid, the slow, the uninformed.

    The challenge is, when will it be right, when will you have the confidence to be first?[/b]

  • #90379
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    Or does history always have to repeat itself?

    Hi Chris,
    the problem here is the human nature.
    There was no reason for anybody to buy in Spain in 2005 to 2007, prices were way too high (same in USA in 2005-2006 or UK in 2006-2007). But people still did it, because they were afraid they might lose out…
    Near the bottom of the crash, prices will be so afordable that there will be little reason not to buy for somebody interested in property in Spain. But few people will do it because they will be afraid to overpay.
    Then, 4-5 years after the bottom of the crash people will be again afraid to not lose out and overpay, etc, etc, etc.

    Hi Floshmichael,

    And that is the truth of it, human nature, and you are totally spot on about 05-07, and people buying because they were afraid to lose out..

    And yes now many people are justifiably afraid, and they eventually will certainly overpay, and yes history will repeat itself.

    So is the right person, the one who simply buys what he can afford, and gets the fullest value out of their use, and maybe that time is now for them – well anytime is right for them – and they will then sell at the right time which maybe for them is 4-5 years from now when people do start overpaying again, and they have had their use and want to move on?

    Who knows? I watched Mark’s clip from the US pricing guru and I don’t think he has a clue either, these are certainly interesting times.

    Thank you for your patience with me, it has been quite a dizzying afternoon.

  • #90380
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Just had a quick read at this thread, I know nothing 😆 I would say the truth will be between the Agents…aka Chris and Peter’s predictions and Flosmicheals low bargains. In Naples, Florida the only bargains are the ones noone wants to buy, recently new developments similar to Spain, way out from anywhere, bleak immature places.

  • #90381
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I thinks Marks clip mainly showed we have no situation in recent history similar enough to draw conclusions, apart from the overstock situation. I don’t know how things can move on when there is massive overbuild with massive investment in these overbuilds at stake? Surely something will have to give sooner or later? That’s one of the problems. Another one is this comment.

    ‘Those who get in first will reap the benifits, they are often the gamblers, those who come in at the end will lose everything as usual, the timid, the slow, the uninformed.’

    many of us did get in early and took that gamble. 2002 in my case. Despite market forces, we still should have done pretty well. We bought so cheap in the first place. The paper value was starting to rocket. Like many, we are victims though of the corruption, and lack of regulation, so still lost out. In this time of recession, that ugly side is often being swept under the carpet, but along with the overbuilds, I think this now well reported situation has killed not only ‘off-plan’, but confidence to take that gamble even when the worst is over?

    Without huge changes being made to bring back confidence, what is left?
    Off-Plan is a no go area, nobody will want overbuilds unless they are virtually given away. I guess even modest ‘old’ builds in good locations will do well and price themselves out of the pocket of those who would have bought on the first rung in the last boom. I find it hard to see where recovery will really start? The exchange rate/cost of living being yet another side where Spain has lost appeal.

    I’m sure the sun will always be Spain’s saving grace, and location to a large poulation in countries like the UK will mean it’s always a good holiday destination, and there will always be a property market of some sort, though far smaller for the foreseable future I think? Perhaps in a few years when things get really desperate, a ‘no reserve’ auction on half finished/overbuilds will kick start the next rush?

  • #90382
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I regularly see properties that are IMHO priced well above what the market value today, and the reason is generally that the sellers feel that they cannot afford to sell unless they clear the mortgage. This situation is giving the false impression that prices haven’t fallen that much in some areas. In turn I feel that this group are generating false hope, because they see similar property advertised at similar prices.

    The reality is that these properties are just not selling, the real market is quite different, I feel that it is just a matter of time before most of those involved captilate & realise there losses, I just cannot see any alternative to this.

    I still feel there is a long way to go, and the idea that the market cannot fall to a level where owners/investors/banks loose lots of money is just wrong. I am sure that we have all had moments when we have disposed of assets at a loss, this is no different, it’s just that scale of the problem makes it more painful.

  • #90384
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @goodstich44 wrote:

    many of us did get in early and took that gamble. 2002 in my case. Despite market forces, we still should have done pretty well. We bought so cheap in the first place.

    I’m sure the sun will always be Spain’s saving grace, and location to a large poulation in countries like the UK will mean it’s always a good holiday destination, and there will always be a property market of some sort, though far smaller for the foreseable future I think? Perhaps in a few years when things get really desperate, a ‘no reserve’ auction on half finished/overbuilds will kick start the next rush?

    2002 was not early, 1998 was early. Between 1998 and 2002 prices at least doubled.

    What would people do with half finished buildings? The cost of finishing houses plus installing utilities is quite high.

  • #90385
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @goodstich44 wrote:

    many of us did get in early and took that gamble. 2002 in my case. Despite market forces, we still should have done pretty well. We bought so cheap in the first place. The paper value was starting to rocket. Like many, we are victims though of the corruption, and lack of regulation, so still lost out. In this time of recession, that ugly side is often being swept under the carpet…

    I hear that, I really do.

    And I think so many people do now want to use the recession, global crisis et al, to simply sweep away the unbelievable abuse and malpractice that everyone whether knowingly or unwittingly was involved in, in selling mainly off plan property on the various Costa’s through most of the 2000 decade.

    Many people see this as an absolutely glorious opportunity to just bin the past and move on, as if nothing had ever happened or to put it all in the communal global pot of failures and disasters, to then be dismissed as if it was all just so much of nothing really.

    Well, you can’t let it happen that people forget.

    What has happened to yourself and so many others was too bloody unfair, stupid and actually outrageous to be just pushed conveniently under the carpet.

    So I do hear that, I am sure a significant number of others do as well, and hopefully in its own small way, that is something of a positive also.

  • #90386
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @El anciano wrote:

    I still feel there is a long way to go, and the idea that the market cannot fall to a level where owners/investors/banks loose lots of money is just wrong. I am sure that we have all had moments when we have disposed of assets at a loss, this is no different, it’s just that scale of the problem makes it more painful.

    I can’t see it myself El Anciano, do you believe that units once selling with an asking price of €325,000 are going to start appearing on the market for what… 75% below their previous value?

    Therefore at a new price of €81,000 do you believe that the market will truly fall thus far? Or if not that far, then exactly how far?

    How far in percentage terms does it have to fall to become inescapably an amazing must do deal to buy? This being not just for you or me of course, but to a point at which significant numbers of people will simply move into the market and buy with a devil may care attitude.

  • #90387
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Tinsa, arguably the most highly regarded of the indexes around, is predicting a 20% drop this year.

    http://news.kyero.com/2009/2/19/finally-realistic-spanish-property-trends

    I happen to think we´ll also see a drop, probably something similar in 2010 before the market levels off.

    If that happens we´ll be looking at properties being worth 55% of their current value in two years time.

  • #90388
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @brianc_li wrote:

    Tinsa, arguably the most highly regarded of the indexes around, is predicting a 20% drop this year.

    http://news.kyero.com/2009/2/19/finally-realistic-spanish-property-trends

    I happen to think we´ll also see a drop, probably something similar in 2010 before the market levels off.

    If that happens we´ll be looking at properties being worth 55% of their current value in two years time.

    So does that mean 55% of their value today, which is down what 20% at least from their value two years ago?

    So does that mean 75% lower than 2007?

    I think the Tinsa report and link was excellent, it also looks like it may well be an accurate report, but I think it may have missed out on actual selling prices in the past year or so.

    But back to my point…

    Does El anciano think that an ultimate fall of 75% is remotely possible?

    Are you suggesting the same?

    Or am I missing something here?

  • #90389
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I think we are looking at 2 factors here.

    The first being the trickle downwards of property valuations by the banks.

    It is not in their interests to show a dramatic slide in property values, simply because they now seem to own so much of it.

    Official valuations are still the benchmark against which actual sales prices are measured. Yet most properties that sell in todays market are changing hands at between 20-40% lower than bank valuation.

    The gap between the overseas buyers market and the local buyers market has closed considerably, and in some cases UK buyers purchasing from UK owners are often getting better deals than Spanish buyers are from Spanish owners. That was not the case back in the boom years.

    The second factor will come into play when the Euros begins to plummet. If we look back to the beggining of the boom, we can see that it was price that drove the market. Back in 1999, the average Spanish property value was about half of its UK counterpart, leaving UK buyers with half their equity to live off or invest for an income.

    By 2004/5, it was safe to say that most Spanish property prices had reached parity with UK property prices and as we have all acknowledged, that is when the slowdown began.

    Therefore if the Euro declines steeply against Sterling and creates this large differential in comparative property values, then coupled with the existing price correction now happening in Spain, there will be every good reason for buyers to return to Spain.

    I see the Euro falling steeply by the middle of the summer.

  • #90390
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I can’t see it myself El Anciano, do you believe that units once selling with an asking price of €325,000 are going to start appearing on the market for what… 75% below their previous value?

    I’d expect that to be quite common in the next year or two, especially inland.

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Therefore at a new price of €81,000 do you believe that the market will truly fall thus far? Or if not that far, then exactly how far?

    I would expect to get a 10% yield on any investment so for me a property at that price would have to earn €8,100 a year in rent which is €675 a month long term rental or say 12 weeks at €675 a week holiday rent. Please feel free to correct my figures giving examples but I am sure we will come to agree that a price of €81,000 is nearer true value than €325,000.

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    How far in percentage terms does it have to fall to become inescapably an amazing must do deal to buy? This being not just for you or me of course, but to a point at which significant numbers of people will simply move into the market and buy with a devil may care attitude.

    The market is dead, it’s going to remain dead until the northern Europeans feel confident enough that their jobs are safe, then that their primary residence is safe before they consider Spanish property again and by that time €81,000 might be considered expensive.

    For Heaven’s sake, we haven’t even had the mass bankruptcies yet.

  • #90391
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    In the meantime I’m going to carry on renting!

    I agree with Brian’s post, it’s pretty much along the lines of how I feel the market will go. It would be interesting to resurrect this thread at the end of next year to read all our comments with the advantage of ‘hindsight’.

    A year ago, the thread: Spanish property market 2008: soft landing or train wreck? asked the question in a poll: What fate awaits the Spanish property market in 08? (40% voted for a soft landing for 2008).

    So what was that in 2008? A soft landing or a train crash?

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2781&start=0

  • #90392
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mike wrote:

    I’d expect that to be quite common in the next year or two, especially inland.

    There will always be differences in the scale of price drops. As has been said before by Mark, the good locations will generally be the least affected and the cheap areas and poor quality units the hardest hit.

    @mike wrote:

    I would expect to get a 10% yield on any investment so for me a property at that price would have to earn €8,100 a year in rent which is €675 a month long term rental or say 12 weeks at €675 a week holiday rent. Please feel free to correct my figures giving examples but I am sure we will come to agree that a price of €81,000 is nearer true value than €325,000.

    10% yield is quite unrealistic in Spain. 5% is and has been hardly acheivable.

    @mike wrote:

    The market is dead, it’s going to remain dead until the northern Europeans feel confident enough that their jobs are safe, then that their primary residence is safe before they consider Spanish property again and by that time €81,000 might be considered expensive.

    There are many northern Europeans who are looking to get out because their jobs are no longer safe, they are tired of politics and instability. Some will seek a new life abroad as they have little to lose.

  • #90394
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    mike
    Participant

    @peter Good wrote:

    10% yield is quite unrealistic in Spain. 5% is and has been hardly acheivable.

    €81,000 is a lot of money, I’d pass on Spanish property if it can’t give a 10% return. I don’t think there will capital gains until this collapse is forgotten and if this is a 1930s style depression then, like shares at that time, I wouldn’t expect the market to recover for 25 years. Although I’m sure there will be some false dawns.

    @peter Good wrote:

    @mike wrote:
    The market is dead, it’s going to remain dead until the northern Europeans feel confident enough that their jobs are safe, then that their primary residence is safe before they consider Spanish property again and by that time €81,000 might be considered expensive.

    There are many northern Europeans who are looking to get out because their jobs are no longer safe, they are tired of politics and instability. Some will seek a new life abroad as they have little to lose.

    Well, if they spend anywhere near €325,000 they have a lot more that they can lose. Besides, I think you will find that over the enxt couple of years people will return north, to their homeland, which they understand and which they can trust whilst everywhere else goes slightly mad.

  • #90395
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    In the meantime I’m going to carry on renting!

    I agree with Brian’s post, it’s pretty much along the lines of how I feel the market will go. It would be interesting to resurrect this thread at the end of next year to read all our comments with the advantage of ‘hindsight’.

    A year ago, the thread: Spanish property market 2008: soft landing or train wreck? asked the question in a poll: What fate awaits the Spanish property market in 08? (40% voted for a soft landing for 2008).

    So what was that in 2008? A soft landing or a train crash?

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2781&start=0

    I would say 2008 was neither.

    Simply because the market as such dried to a trickle of sales, but then most of 2007 was quite similar. It was the exchange rate change from €1.45 to €1.20 which caused the stoppage.

    Yet, as we have all discussed here, prices don’t seem to have crashed, just dropped gradually over the past 12 months.

  • #90396
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I think it is impossible to predict percentage falls, especially over a period of years.

    I look at pricing form the point of view of a Spanish buyer, as I believe ultimately they drive the market. And, I believe that affordabilty for 1st time buyers is the key to the national market (as seems to be accepted in the UK). Prices are still too high in this key area.

    When you then factor in rising unemployment, and falling consumer confidence it looks pretty grim IMO. In recent times 1st time buyers have been taking out large mortgages, and spreading them over long terms, now they find it difficult to get a mortgage, they have lost confidence in the market, and renting is still a lot cheaper. Prices are predicted to fall 20% over the course of this year, and the coastal areas (in on the coast) are expected to be the worst hit. So, all in all it just does not make sense to buy. Even a relatively cheap place here (e.g. 80000€) is expected to fall by 16000€ this year.

    Oh, and on top of all that, a lot of the property in my area isn’t attractive to the Spanish buyers, as they is no work nearby. So these areas will struggle badly I feel.

  • #90397
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mike wrote:

    I think you will find that over the enxt couple of years people will return north, to their homeland, which they understand and which they can trust whilst everywhere else goes slightly mad.

    That is actually happening, and I agree that it will continue over the next few years. However it has always happened, even in the boom, many people went back, but they were out numbered by the people still coming out.

    Living in Spain isn’t right for everyone, even in a boom. Most of those pensioners returning to the UK are feeling the effects of a strong Euro not the Spanish economy.

    Having just got off the telephone to some friends who returned to the UK in late 2007, they are now making plans to return to Spain as going back turned out to be a bad idea after all.

  • #90398
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @El anciano wrote:

    I think it is impossible to predict percentage falls, especially over a period of years.

    I agree.

    @El anciano wrote:

    I look at pricing form the point of view of a Spanish buyer, as I believe ultimately they drive the market. And, I believe that affordabilty for 1st time buyers is the key to the national market

    In Spain this is difficult as many Spanish don’t use estate agents. They also still buy with black money which causes an unrealistic price average at the land registry.

    @El anciano wrote:

    In recent times 1st time buyers have been taking out large mortgages, and spreading them over long terms, now they find it difficult to get a mortgage, they have lost confidence in

    At present, off-shore mortgages from Gibraltar at 2.5% are popular with the Spanish buyers, they are taking advantage of the UK interest rates and generally think its a good time to buy if they are still in work.

  • #90399
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I can’t see it myself El Anciano, do you believe that units once selling with an asking price of €325,000 are going to start appearing on the market for what… 75% below their previous value?

    I’d expect that to be quite common in the next year or two, especially inland.

    With the greatest respect: In your dreams will you ever see properties once sold at €325,000 in Elviria Marbella selling for €81k never, ever going to happen.

    Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Therefore at a new price of €81,000 do you believe that the market will truly fall thus far? Or if not that far, then exactly how far?


    I would expect to get a 10% yield on any investment so for me a property at that price would have to earn €8,100 a year in rent which is €675 a month long term rental or say 12 weeks at €675 a week holiday rent. Please feel free to correct my figures giving examples but I am sure we will come to agree that a price of €81,000 is nearer true value than €325,000.

    I think you are talking the language of yesterday here, you expect a 10% yield on any investment? I think if you can show anyone that kind of guaranteed or certain return right now, you can set out your stall and retire. This is the language of the yesteryear property investor.

    Sorry but I don’t think true value just begins and ends where you start talking about returns, rents and holiday rates. Again, in your dreams will a 2 Bed 2 Bath recently constructed apartment in Elviria be selling at anything actually less than €160k if the market were to really continue to fall. People simply don’t have to sell in a manner in which you think they have to, just to create value for you as an investor. There are many other types of buyer out there, and you don’t seem to accept that as being a factor.

    There really are some weird ways of looking at the world on here sometimes, do you know anybody selling up and getting out of their town or home in the UK for 75% less than they have paid for their home two years ago?

    Chris McCarthy wrote:

    How far in percentage terms does it have to fall to become inescapably an amazing must do deal to buy? This being not just for you or me of course, but to a point at which significant numbers of people will simply move into the market and buy with a devil may care attitude.

    The market is dead, it’s going to remain dead until the northern Europeans feel confident enough that their jobs are safe, then that their primary residence is safe before they consider Spanish property again and by that time €81,000 might be considered expensive.

    For Heaven’s sake, we haven’t even had the mass bankruptcies yet.

    OK, this is the point where I perhaps give up entirely, what part of anybody on here thinks that the entire or even coastal Spanish property market is reliant on the UK property buyer? “By that time €81k will be seen as expensive” – well for heaven’s sake indeed, I just can’t believe what I am hearing.

    My apologies if I seem a little bit exasperated, that would be most unfair as you only seem to have just joined the thread, but please do read the rest of it. And please don’t assume that we Brits / Irish are all knowing, all mighty property buyers or investors. That markets are dead for alive just by our very presence, the Costa del Sol Property market is very much alive and kicking, just as the Harrogate, North Yorkshire market is likewise. Perhaps their businesses and modes of operation are different but it doesn’t mean they or their markets are dead, just because we assume that to be the case on this forum.

    I know plenty of people in both, and whilst times are tough they are certainly getting going, which is what the tough do at those times apparently.

    And just to probably rub everyone up the completely wrong way, if you want to buy a really nice apartment in the Elviria right now, you are probably going to have to part with in excess of €220 – €240k at present, if I had ten at €160k I would sell them all within a heartbeat.

    Oh, and if that don’t beat all, with all my contacts and inside knowledge I was happy to get a deal last week for a 3 bed family unit in the Alanda Club Elviria – where they have plenty of freehold units – at a rate of €875 for the week, best deal I could find or wangle anywhere.

    So I repeat for the sake of the now almost holy Elizabeth, and being close to ranting – for which I apologise – I say to everyone IT IS NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM, anybody that gets me to part with €875 is doing good business so that’s the Alanda Club on top straightaway!

  • #90400
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    So I repeat for the sake of the now almost holy Elizabeth….

    😆

    Where is she by the way?
    You’re being very ‘loyal’ to someone who’s disappeared. I think she only posted to plug her videos.

  • #90401
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    So I repeat for the sake of the now almost holy Elizabeth….

    😆

    Where is she by the way?
    You’re being very ‘loyal’ to someone who’s disappeared. I think she only posted to plug her videos.

    Ha!

    You’re right long gone it seems, so in future if I refer to the Holy Elizabeth, it is to the lost and lonely souls whom look for some light and hope from us all.

    Am about to disappear myself, I fear I am spending too much time in here!

  • #90403
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris, I don´t understand what you are getting so het up about.

    Most of those who have posted on here feel that prices still have some way to drop. Even you, in your more considered moments, seem to concur. The question as always is by how much. I claim no expertise but, given what I have read, lean towards accepting Tinsa´s projection of a 20% drop this year. (I live in NL by the way so think only in EUR).

    Of course the market isn´t dead. Those few who price their properties realistically will attract buyers. That said those who think they´ll get anything close to the inflated asking prices of one or two years ago are getting little or no response. I seem to recall from earlier posts that you too have had problems shifting properties recently?

    Let me put this scenario to you:

    A client of yours has had their property (for the sake of argument lets say a nice two bedroom apartment in good condition in Marbella) on sale for a year at 250k. There has been little or no interest. He indicates that he really needs to sell the property. what would you advise him to do:

    – To shift it inside 3-6 months.
    – To sell it urgently (inside a month)
    – If he had no urgent need to sell

    Perhaps our other estate agents might also be prepared to pitch in as well?

  • #90404
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi,

    Enjoying reading this thread and here we were thinking we were going to give Elizabeth some hope! Ha – Anway I would like to ask the “experts” a question. I bought apartment thinking it wasn’t badly priced compared to what I would get here in Ireland in same location. I purchased 3 bed 2 bath apartment on south costa blanca in an urbanisation called Zeniamar. We purchased as a family for longterm and lifestyle not for investment. I purchased apartment for E214,000 and garage with storage room for E16,500. What do you think it would fetch now? Also there was one comment made about rental yield, again could I ask the question what rental do you think is achievable in the current climate? I’m asking the question because even though I didn’t buy for investment – it is unnerving to have negative equity and you begin to wonder well how much negative equity and then how long will it take to come back to price purchased for. We don’t intend on selling but with job security being a big issue for a lot of people worldwide – it has often crossed my mind. One poster was quoting figures of 5% yield for renting – the area where my apartment is which is close to beach, shops restaurants – this figure would be on the high side.

    Angela59- 😀

  • #90405
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angela wrote:

    Hi,

    Enjoying reading this thread and here we were thinking we were going to give Elizabeth some hope! Ha – Anway I would like to ask the “experts” a question. I bought apartment thinking it wasn’t badly priced compared to what I would get here in Ireland in same location. I purchased 3 bed 2 bath apartment on south costa blanca in an urbanisation called Zeniamar. We purchased as a family for longterm and lifestyle not for investment. I purchased apartment for E214,000 and garage with storage room for E16,500. What do you think it would fetch now? Also there was one comment made about rental yield, again could I ask the question what rental do you think is achievable in the current climate? I’m asking the question because even though I didn’t buy for investment – it is unnerving to have negative equity and you begin to wonder well how much negative equity and then how long will it take to come back to price purchased for. We don’t intend on selling but with job security being a big issue for a lot of people worldwide – it has often crossed my mind. One poster was quoting figures of 5% yield for renting – the area where my apartment is which is close to beach, shops restaurants – this figure would be on the high side.

    Angela59- 😀

    Hi Angela,

    If your apartment is one of the duplex types with the larger terraces then they are holding prices quite well.

    However, it all depends on the owners/sellers circumstances. For example recently a 3/2 unfurnished duplex sold for €177,500 a few days before foreclosure, however most agents are displaying them still at around €225,000 – €260,000.

    Not sure if your apartment is as mentioned above though.

    Rental prices on the larger websites such as Holiday lettings etc are silly money – over €500 per week, but you can find similar places direct from the owners for half that price.

    Its a very wide ranging market at present, very dependant on owners desperation.

  • #90408
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @brianc_li wrote:

    Chris, I don´t understand what you are getting so het up about.

    No, I haven’t a clue either really. I gave up smoking for the umpteenth time about 5 weeks ago, and am just coming off the patches, so maybe that has me all agitated. Will go get a patch on later!

    Well that, and I can certainly tell you that property prices in my area are not going to fall by 75% from their former peak let alone from today’s price.

    It was beginning to strike me as all too silly to think about really. But then that’s more my failing in communication of my own message really. Which then gets me het up too.

    @brianc_li wrote:

    Most of those who have posted on here feel that prices still have some way to drop. Even you, in your more considered moments, seem to concur. The question as always is by how much. I claim no expertise but, given what I have read, lean towards accepting Tinsa´s projection of a 20% drop this year. (I live in NL by the way so think only in EUR).

    Of course the market isn´t dead. Those few who price their properties realistically will attract buyers. That said those who think they´ll get anything close to the inflated asking prices of one or two years ago are getting little or no response. I seem to recall from earlier posts that you too have had problems shifting properties recently?

    Tinsa and all the others have different perspectives and timeframes I think for falling prices, it is pretty much the same in the UK there are about 6 different indices you can look at which will paint a different picture each time.

    Overall, the quality resale market has to drop by 20-25% in my area if you want to sell today, a number of development projects if they want to achieve sales and get themselves out, will have to drop between 30-40% to attract real buyers, the desperate development project… well that is another story and there eventually you will be looking at +50% reductions in future, but the question is… Do you just buy on price alone? Because there is often a reason something is so distressed, and that is not a good buy in my opinion.

    And yep, properties that don’t reduce their prices are not selling, that bothers some vendors and others could care less, some people on the coast have their property happily for sale for years, it’s frustrating but true.

    @brianc_li wrote:

    Let me put this scenario to you:

    A client of yours has had their property (for the sake of argument lets say a nice two bedroom apartment in good condition in Marbella) on sale for a year at 250k. There has been little or no interest. He indicates that he really needs to sell the property. what would you advise him to do:

    – To shift it inside 3-6 months.
    – To sell it urgently (inside a month)
    – If he had no urgent need to sell

    Perhaps our other estate agents might also be prepared to pitch in as well?

    Case of shifting in 3-6 months, simply work out what his or her absolute minimum net requirement is after all expenses have been met, and a commission if required to agents, and then promote it at that price plus the expenses.

    We are talking about somebody who really needs to sell their property here right? So work out what you absolutely must have or need, and then in this market lowball everyone.

    Same case for shift inside a month, that is unlikely to occur unless your low, really is a super low, so what applies for a month will apply for 3-6 also.

    Case of having no urgent need to sell at all. Then exactly the same case as above, work out your low point and get it out there, at least you can assess the interest, at least you may get offers, which is a lot more than somebody with an over inflated expectation, and who says you have to accept the offers? And maybe like a London bus, two might come along at once and start an auction.

    So same in all three cases, work out your lowest acceptable price, your costs as additional and go in for that.

    Again on the basis that you recognise fishing or sitting on the banks with a high price is not going to generate much interest.

    Then, of course how to pick a route to market, well that’s a whole different ball game.

  • #90410
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks for reply. Ours isn’t a duplex but 1st floor apartment with large solarium and a patio off living room. When we bought prices depended on aspect of the sun and proximity to pool area etc. Ours is facing sea and overlooking pool. Would you have any idea of longterm let prices. I’m half thinking of letting it out longterm – one agent told me I would get E550 per month and then the tentant pays the bills on top of this, also the agent takes the first month’s rental and then 10% everymonth. Not sure if this amount is achievable or just hype. Another person advised I wouldn’t achieve E550 per month plus bills – the bills would be included in the E550. When you take this into account plus 10% for agent – and build in wear and tear depreciation – it might not be attractive to rent out. Eitherways at the moment I don’t have to sell and would only rent out apartment if it had some kind of return – otherwise would still use it for 3 months of the year.

    Angela

  • #90412
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angela wrote:

    Hi Peter,

    Would you have any idea of longterm let prices. I’m half thinking of letting it out longterm – one agent told me I would get E550 per month and then the tentant pays the bills on top of this,
    Angela

    He is about right Angela. Could probably get nearer €650 long term if there is Sky TV – Air-Con and nice quality furniture.

    Also your storage area is valuable to long term renters.

    Smaller 2 bed apartments at Roda golf just down the road from you are letting at up to €750 per month.

  • #90413
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peter Good wrote:

    @angela wrote:
    Hi,

    Enjoying reading this thread and here we were thinking we were going to give Elizabeth some hope! Ha – Anway I would like to ask the “experts” a question. I bought apartment thinking it wasn’t badly priced compared to what I would get here in Ireland in same location. I purchased 3 bed 2 bath apartment on south costa blanca in an urbanisation called Zeniamar. We purchased as a family for longterm and lifestyle not for investment. I purchased apartment for E214,000 and garage with storage room for E16,500. What do you think it would fetch now?

    Angela59- 😀

    Hi Angela,
    If your apartment is one of the duplex types with the larger terraces then they are holding prices quite well.
    However, it all depends on the owners/sellers circumstances. For example recently a 3/2 unfurnished duplex sold for €177,500 a few days before foreclosure, however most agents are displaying them still at around €225,000 – €260,000.
    Its a very wide ranging market at present, very dependant on owners desperation.

    There you go Angela, a very concise and clear answer I think.

    And certainly not all doom and gloom, I couldn’t answer because it is not my area, but it is what I would want to hear…

    A similar unit sold at or no foreclosure at €178 just over 20% below your purchase price and perhaps they had not bought the garage unit as well.

    Other properties still price for sale at your original purchase price.

    So, don’t even think abut selling, get yourself out and over there as often as possible and have a great time, and it might not be too long before if you have to sell you do well or at least get past the negative equity.

    But the golden rule having bought, and not needing to sell really, is to wait, and again, while you do so, enjoy every minute of it.

    We are already making our plans for Easter, hope to find something a bit cheaper than the Alanda Club this time, or at least to wave at them in negotiatoin with. Gorgeous apartments though I have to say.

  • #90414
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Probably the good news that Elisabeth wanted to hear…

    “Phoenix recorded an annual decline of 34 percent, while property values in Las Vegas and San Francisco fell 33 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively, according to S&P.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29364539

    Annual decline of 31% in San Francisco, a city supposed to be quite insulated from the crash…

  • #90415
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I can’t see it myself El Anciano, do you believe that units once selling with an asking price of €325,000 are going to start appearing on the market for what… 75% below their previous value?

    Therefore at a new price of €81,000 do you believe that the market will truly fall thus far? Or if not that far, then exactly how far?

    How much did it cost when new?

  • #90417
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I can’t see it myself El Anciano, do you believe that units once selling with an asking price of €325,000 are going to start appearing on the market for what… 75% below their previous value?

    Therefore at a new price of €81,000 do you believe that the market will truly fall thus far? Or if not that far, then exactly how far?

    How much did it cost when new?

    €325,000 was the asking price when new and finished.

  • #90418
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    [/quote]

    There you go Angela, a very concise and clear answer I think.

    And certainly not all doom and gloom, I couldn’t answer because it is not my area, but it is what I would want to hear…

    A similar unit sold at or no foreclosure at €178 just over 20% below your purchase price and perhaps they had not bought the garage unit as well.

    Other properties still price for sale at your original purchase price.

    So, don’t even think abut selling, get yourself out and over there as often as possible and have a great time, and it might not be too long before if you have to sell you do well or at least get past the negative equity.

    But the golden rule having bought, and not needing to sell really, is to wait, and again, while you do so, enjoy every minute of it.

    We are already making our plans for Easter, hope to find something a bit cheaper than the Alanda Club this time, or at least to wave at them in negotiatoin with. Gorgeous apartments though I have to say.[/quote]

    Hi Chris,

    Thanks for your hearty words – I appreciate it – hopefully we will be able to hold on to apartment until hubby retires – sometimes with all the doom and gloom worldwide it is hard to see the wood for the trees and you are not thinking in the future but only from day to day.

    Angela

  • #90419
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    [/quote]

    He is about right Angela. Could probably get nearer €650 long term if there is Sky TV – Air-Con and nice quality furniture.

    Also your storage area is valuable to long term renters.

    Smaller 2 bed apartments at Roda golf just down the road from you are letting at up to €750 per month.[/quote]

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks that is heartening to know, my agent had a lady looking last friday at my apartment and she liked it but though the rent of E550 per month was too expensive and said she would come back with an offer – Any less than that amount per month would not be viable for me as I still would go to spain in summer months and rent a place for 1 month or so.

    Thanks for advice again

    Angela

  • #90420
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angela wrote:

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks that is heartening to know, my agent had a lady looking last friday at my apartment and she liked it but though the rent of E550 per month was too expensive and said she would come back with an offer – Any less than that amount per month would not be viable for me as I still would go to spain in summer months and rent a place for 1 month or so.

    Thanks for advice again

    Angela

    My pleasure Angela.

    Do hold out for €600. There are lot’s of people looking to rent with low budgets, often they are problematic tenants.

    Register your property with half a dozen decent local rental companies they will soon find you the right person.

    Regards,

    Peter.

  • #90426
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I would expect to get a 10% yield on any investment so for me a property at that price would have to earn €8,100 a year in rent which is €675 a month long term rental or say 12 weeks at €675 a week holiday rent. Please feel free to correct my figures giving examples but I am sure we will come to agree that a price of €81,000 is nearer true value than €325,000.[/i]

    I think you are talking the language of yesterday here, you expect a 10% yield on any investment? I think if you can show anyone that kind of guaranteed or certain return right now, you can set out your stall and retire. This is the language of the yesteryear property investor.

    I wasn’t talking about property, that’s finished

  • #90451
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Has anyone seen the dire tourist stats for January? Surely if they are this bad people are not at all interested in buying! eg. Swedish visitors down 60%.

    I advised a friend to advertise her property on here. Reduced by 200,000 and accepting offers…not any interest! I know some Agents, they have given up their offices and are running as a sideline, doing other jobs. The fact is nothing is selling. Prices will not go into freefall, it is a different market here, most will wait to put their property on the market. Many lock up and leave.

  • #90458
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Prices will not go into freefall, it is a different market here, most will wait to put their property on the market. Many lock up and leave.

    Most people that bought their properties for cheap before the boom of course can wait till (they hope) the crisis is over. But maybe some of them need the cash now and not in a few years from now.

    Also, people with mortgages who are bleeding money due top lack of rentals are also interested in selling or they are forced to hand back the keys to the banks.

    The builders are stuck with thousands of properties who do not sell unless they have a fire sale. Banks already hold property worth multi-billion euros.

    Somebody or something will start the price fall. Then, after prices arrive to their decent (double the 1995 value) value, buyers will arrive.

  • #90459
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Prices will not go into freefall, it is a different market here, most will wait to put their property on the market. Many lock up and leave.

    Most people that bought their properties for cheap before the boom of course can wait till (they hope) the crisis is over. But maybe some of them need the cash now and not in a few years from now.

    Also, people with mortgages who are bleeding money due top lack of rentals are also interested in selling or they are forced to hand back the keys to the banks.

    The builders are stuck with thousands of properties who do not sell unless they have a fire sale. Banks already hold property worth multi-billion euros.

    Somebody or something will start the price fall. Then, after prices arrive to their decent (double the 1995 value) value, buyers will arrive.

  • #90466
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    flosmichael

    I would think you are right. How can the property business have any stability while there are huge sums of money tied up in so many places nobody really wants? What is the current value of a 2 bed apartment, if there are thousands just sitting around unsold, and just who is going to pay to finish the half built one’s, when a complete one is worth so little due to over supply? As a rule in retail, if there is a massive overstock, then sooner or later the stock must be sold at virtually any price to recover some funds, or destoyed to keep demand up. Is property any different?.

  • #90467
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Some blocks were stood empty for 5 years during the last crash.

  • #90468
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi,

    When was the last crash in spain and how long did it last?

    Angela ❓

  • #90469
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Not exactly sure, I would guess around 1991 until 1997. Only a thought though from memory. This one will be longer, it is worse than I remember last time.

  • #90470
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Some blocks were stood empty for 5 years during the last crash.

    Hi Katy,

    who were the owners of those apartments? I am sure they did not pay mortgages…

    I perfectly agree that some people will manage to ride the storm without the firesale. But some won’t be able to do so.
    I think that soon-to-be-bankrupt builders and banks will be forced to start the firesale.
    Unfortunately, the dumped properties will distort the prices and forced everybody to sell lower.

  • #90471
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Not exactly sure, I would guess around 1991 until 1997. Only a thought though from memory. This one will be longer, it is worse than I remember last time.

    Worse in what sense? I have no knowledge of what happened in the 90’s.

  • #90473
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    OK just popping in with the odd sale report – yep they do occasionally happen – my colleagues in Spain reported a sale to me yesterday, that might be of interest.

    An apartment in Calahonda, was on at an asking price of €209,000 and was sold of €140,000 good deal, great value?

    Keeps the debate going I suppose.

    Don’t know too much more about it, but it fits that 30% drop, and one imagines that a year or two ago it would have been on for what… €220 – €240,000 so someone is buying and someone sold.

  • #90474
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @flosmichael wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    Not exactly sure, I would guess around 1991 until 1997. Only a thought though from memory. This one will be longer, it is worse than I remember last time.

    Worse in what sense? I have no knowledge of what happened in the 90’s.

    Most belonged to the banks. They either did not release them until the upturn or they were caught up in the courts for years. Last time there was not so much overbuild. Neither the financial crisis with the banks. The two properties we bought had been empty 5 years, never occupied.

  • #90475
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Last time there was not so much overbuild. Neither the financial crisis with the banks..

    I think that these are 2 crucial things . Overbuild means a huge supply and financial crisis means a thirst for money and a necesity to dump assets from the books.

    But they might not make any difference and things mught become identical to the ’90s, who knows?

  • #90476
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    An apartment in Calahonda, was on at an asking price of €209,000 and was sold of €140,000 good deal, great value?

    Keeps the debate going I suppose.

    Don’t know too much more about it, but it fits that 30% drop, and one imagines that a year or two ago it would have been on for what… €220 – €240,000 so someone is buying and someone sold.

    Well, just from a superficial look at kyero, there are some other Calahonda proeprties for 140K so the 30% was just necesary to bring the price to the current asking price.

    Now, any realistic offer would be for 30% off that current asking price i.e. around 100K.

  • #90478
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I remember some agents on this forum laughing their socks off in mockery at a suggestion prices could drop by 30%.
    Bet they’re darning them at the moment.

  • #90479
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    flosmichael

    yes, in this most uncertain of times, can anyone feel safe that the property valued at 140E today will not be worth half that in a year or two?

    Almost any price seems a gamble at the moment! Until the market really starts to move in either direction, how many would take the risk?

    Clear the constipation, let the s **t hit the fan, clear it all up, then perhaps we will see where we really are?

  • #90481
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Well, just from a superficial look at kyero, there are some other Calahonda proeprties for 140K so the 30% was just necesary to bring the price to the current asking price.

    Now, any realistic offer would be for 30% off that current asking price i.e. around 100K.

    Well that would be the problem with a superficial look, there will be properties also at over €200k we don’t have the specifics on the apartment just the price.

    You also can’t really say that because someone made a decision yesterday that now the value should be €100k.

    The point is – someone wanted to buy – full stop, they wanted a home in that area, and they looked around, and all things considered they made an offer and bought a property. It happens.

    People are still buying you know, it is not a DEAD / NO SALE market, just because we all debate on here that someone must be mad to buy.

    Nor can anyone wisely speculate that this price should then be halved again in two years.

    You have to be realistic about how low you think this can go, and also stop thinking perhaps that it is all as desperate as you think it is. The market is not going to fall 75% from peak to trough, again I say it is just not going to happen.

  • #90482
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    I remember some agents on this forum laughing their socks off in mockery at a suggestion prices could drop by 30%.
    Bet they’re darning them at the moment.

    Very funny and very true!

    But prices in the UK are down 20% too no?

    The only people who made money, who continue to make money are the bankers who were somehow rewarded whether they made money or lost money, just so long as they got our money.

  • #90483
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Well that would be the problem with a superficial look, there will be properties also at over €200k we don’t have the specifics on the apartment just the price.

    You also can’t really say that because someone made a decision yesterday that now the value should be €100k.

    The point is – someone wanted to buy – full stop, they wanted a home in that area, and they looked around, and all things considered they made an offer and bought a property. It happens.

    People are still buying you know, it is not a DEAD / NO SALE market, just because we all debate on here that someone must be mad to buy.

    Nor can anyone wisely speculate that this price should then be halved again in two years.

    You have to be realistic about how low you think this can go, and also stop thinking perhaps that it is all as desperate as you think it is. The market is not going to fall 75% from peak to trough, again I say it is just not going to happen.

    Hi Chris,

    I am 100% sure that it is not a DEAD / NO SALE market and there are people who want homes.

    I was just saying what I would/shall do after/if I decide to buy. If prices do not fall low enough, I shall be happy to continue using holiday lettings. I am extremely realistic.

  • #90484
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    But prices in the UK are down 20% too no?

    The only people who made money, who continue to make money are the bankers who were somehow rewarded whether they made money or lost money, just so long as they got our money.

    Yes, the Fred Goodwin affair is an absolute disgrace and I think Myners should get booted out as a result, but that is all ‘red herring’ stuff Chris – we’re talking about the Spanish property market here. And discussing whether to buy now as against wait. Whether it’s doom and gloom still or a twinkle on the horizon.

  • #90489
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Yes, the Fred Goodwin affair is an absolute disgrace and I think Myners should get booted out as a result, but that is all ‘red herring’ stuff Chris – we’re talking about the Spanish property market here. And discussing whether to buy now as against wait. Whether it’s doom and gloom still or a twinkle on the horizon.

    Well sounds like a cop out, but my view is:

    Yep its doom and gloom, have to be an idiot to deny that.

    But there is a market, have to be an idiot to deny that too.

    And as for a twinkle on the horizon…?

    Don’t know, I think people are buying properties at prices that yes, would have seemed unbelievable just two or three years ago, will they go lower and lower?

    I don’t see how some of them can, and they are your bargain bottom of the market buys, and they are there. In fact if you look back a few years and then look forward to eventual growth, they will be perhaps truly amazing buys.

    Others on the market, yes there is room to go lower in every area, and plenty of haggling to do perhaps.

    But you know, people have to want to buy, and then when they have decided they want to buy, they have to shop around and see what they get for their money, and then take a long view from there, and make sure it suits their individual reasons to buy, use or investment.

    If you don’t want to buy right now, just don’t, stop looking and come back in a year or two, they say when you are ready: The golden rule in real estate is don’t wait to buy, buy and wait…. but I really think you have to add when you are ready to that.

    Some people now are ready, some people not, who is right?

    We just don’t know do we?

  • #90490
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Don’t know, I think people are buying properties at prices that yes, would have seemed unbelievable just two or three years ago, will they go lower and lower?

    I don’t see how some of them can, and they are your bargain bottom of the market buys, and they are there. In fact if you look back a few years and then look forward to eventual growth, they will be perhaps truly amazing buys.

    Others on the market, yes there is room to go lower in every area, and plenty of haggling to do perhaps.

    But you know, people have to want to buy, and then when they have decided they want to buy, they have to shop around and see what they get for their money, and then take a long view from there, and make sure it suits their individual reasons to buy, use or investment.

    If you don’t want to buy right now, just don’t, stop looking and come back in a year or two, they say when you are ready: The golden rule in real estate is don’t wait to buy, buy and wait…. but I really think you have to add when you are ready to that.

    Some people now are ready, some people not, who is right?

    We just don’t know do we?

    Everything is now much cheaper than 2-3 years ago (stocks, real estate, commodities, except gold). So you cannot compare. People that bought at the prices of 2-3 years ago have been had by the vendors and are the last in Ponzi scheme, holding the hot potato.

    You should start by forgetting the prices of 2-3 years ago, they were non realistic and were related to an unhealthy period when banks were totally reckless and buyers were blind.

    Many people are now ready to buy, cash in hand. They are just waiting for sellers to end the denial phase and become realistic.

    Few are willing to pay more than what is worth just for the “privilege” os starting the “lifestyle” in 2009. The “lifestyle” can also start later (or much later) if it saves 20%-30% (or more) of the price.

  • #90491
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I noticed that today’s Sur in English only had one and a third pages of property for sale. There used to be about 10+ pages. Maybe people are giving up on selling and waiting for an upturn 😕

    It is difficult to get a clear indication of prices from Agents websites, some of them don’t even exist or they have “borrowed” them from other Agents. Have heard of people flying out to view specific properties only to be fobbed off when they arrive here. I have seen properties in my area (Elviria) which sound like bargains. Nevertheless, they have been advertised weekly for the past few months.

  • #90494
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Everything is now much cheaper than 2-3 years ago (stocks, real estate, commodities, except gold). So you cannot compare. People that bought at the prices of 2-3 years ago have been had by the vendors and are the last in Ponzi scheme, holding the hot potato.

    You should start by forgetting the prices of 2-3 years ago, they were non realistic and were related to an unhealthy period when banks were totally reckless and buyers were blind.

    Many people are now ready to buy, cash in hand. They are just waiting for sellers to end the denial phase and become realistic.

    Few are willing to pay more than what is worth just for the “privilege” os starting the “lifestyle” in 2009. The “lifestyle” can also start later (or much later) if it saves 20%-30% (or more) of the price.

    With respect, you can’t forget prices of a year or two ago. You can’t just say that did not exist, and people were had, you talk as if everyone is you, they are not you, you are not the market.

    Yours is a fairly narrow view that applies to you, and I respect it entirely, it is your view and it works for you, but perhaps stop overlaying your view over everything as being the view on everything.

    Not everyone wants to just hang around to start their lifestyle until you say that the denial phase is over, I am sorry I talk a lot of twaddle a lot of the time so please always feel free to tell me so, but I think the “denial phase” is just twaddle really.

    I hope you don’t miss the opportunity phase when it comes, I hope you don’t deny that others have different objectives than you, and that some people want to start living now.

    And by the time everyone agrees on here that NOW whenever that is, is the time to buy and you step in there, I guarantee you, you will have missed the best buys!

    Gosh, I hope you don’t take this as being rude. If so my profuse apologies in advance, I just mean what I say with spirit.

  • #90495
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Yours is a fairly narrow view that applies to you, and I respect it entirely, it is your view and it works for you, but perhaps stop overlaying your view over everything as being the view on everything.

    Not everyone wants to just hang around to start their lifestyle until you say that the denial phase is over, I am sorry I talk a lot of twaddle a lot of the time so please always feel free to tell me so, but I think the “denial phase” is just twaddle really.

    I hope you don’t miss the opportunity phase when it comes, I hope you don’t deny that others have different objectives than you, and that some people want to start living now.

    And by the time everyone agrees on here that NOW whenever that is, is the time to buy and you step in there, I guarantee you, you will have missed the best buys!

    Gosh, I hope you don’t take this as being rude. If so my profuse apologies in advance, I just mean what I say with spirit.

    Hi Chris,

    don’t worry, this is a dialog, you are not at all rude.

    Of course I am only presenting my point of view which could be all rubbish.

    Others can see things in a completely different light.

    Maybe this is the bottom evethough I definitely doubt it. If I miss it, there is always next time. 😀 Seriously now, I plan to go for work reasons and the holiday in Spain over the summer and,if I find something that I like and afford, I might buy it (bottom or not).

  • #90496
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I noticed that today’s Sur in English only had one and a third pages of property for sale. There used to be about 10+ pages. Maybe people are giving up on selling and waiting for an upturn 😕

    It is difficult to get a clear indication of prices from Agents websites, some of them don’t even exist or they have “borrowed” them from other Agents. Have heard of people flying out to view specific properties only to be fobbed off when they arrive here. I have seen properties in my area (Elviria) which sound like bargains. Nevertheless, they have been advertised weekly for the past few months.

    I have looked at the Sur in amazement with the reduction in the Property For Sale classifieds, it has indeed gone down to a level not seen in my 20 years and weirdly I have a Sur archive of 10 years of issues, so I can agree that for sure.

    But then you know, a significant number of one man band and meet you on the roundabout agents used to advertise individual properties in the Sur, and what I think you find now is everyone is here on the Internet, they don’t look in the paper, and they don’t respond to the paper.

    If you want to talk about a dying industry then newspapers are where it is at also, and Sur needs a whole new lease of life I think.

    Well the coast needs a whole new lease of life, and am encouraging some people to try and do just that, might seem mad, but there are some of my old colleagues out there want to give a few new initiatives a bit of a go over the next few months.

    See if they can’t get a few vendors out of their denial and into a revival for Flosmichael to plunge on in the waters!

  • #90497
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Hi Chris,

    don’t worry, this is a dialog, you are not at all rude.

    Of course I am only presenting my point of view which could be all rubbish.

    Others can see things in a completely different light.

    Maybe this is the bottom evethough I definitely doubt it. If I miss it, there is always next time. 😀 Seriously now, I plan to go for work reasons and the holiday in Spain over the summer and,if I find something that I like and afford, I might buy it (bottom or not).

    Hi Flosmichael

    Thanks for that you are most generous.

    And there is indeed always next time, this is also a great philosophy, its the people who bought – just because they felt that, then was and would be the only time – that got caught out really, there is indeed always another time.

    Have just decided myself to fly back to the CDS on Monday for the week for work reasons too, so that is me off SPI for awhile again yet, but its been a fun and interesting dialog this week and I intend to use it and your views to a whole bunch of people who operate in the market next week!

  • #90539
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m just back from a short viewing trip to Nerja. It was very enlightening.

    In total I saw nine properties. Out of those I’d say the sellers were ‘in denial’ in seven of the cases. Lots of guff from the agents about how “now is a good time to buy”, Nerja hasn’t been hit as badly as other places on the coast”, “prices are rock bottom, etc”. The asking prices were ridiculous, 160k for 60sq m in need of major refurbishment.

    Of the other two one had already been reduced from 185k to 150k the agent suggested they’d consider an offer of 130k which I still feel is too expensive for the property. The last property was the only one I’d seriously consider. It was priced to sell, 130 sq m, needing a fair of work, reduced from 200k to 125. For a variety of reasons it wasn’t for me but I’m sure it will sell at that price.

    My conclusion is that for purchasers there is value to be found (I consider under 1000 euro per sq m in central Nerja to be that) but that it is still very few and far between. A few vendors are now seeing sense. You can be sure that more will do so in the months and years to come.

  • #90576
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    👿
    Regarding Sir Fred Goodwin, does anyone agree that as Gordon Brown recommended his Knighthood, that he should be stripped of that and simply called Fraud Goodwin from now on. IMO he and various other Bankers should face fraud/negligence claims through the Courts and potential jail sentences.

    This should apply to worldwide Bankers including Spain’s who have created this mess. 🙄

  • #90579
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    angie

    yes indeed. Anything less is just letting them of the hook.

  • #90581
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Angie –

    Jeffrey Archer (prison 2 years), Conrad Black (currently serving six years and enjoying prison life: surfing the internet, writing books and articles and learning to play the piano) and Alan Stanford all have their titles still.

    Is there really any respect anyway for a title these days?

  • #90587
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    charlie

    I don’t think so? I think it would only stand for something if a criteria was met and continually achieved that demanded respect. In the case of those you listed, and many others’ that’s clearly not the case. I also think it’s insulting to those who really do deserve the title.

  • #90588
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I think Jeffrey Archer would argue that his peerage is deserved for his contribution to English literature. 😆

    There is absolutely no shame anymore in public office or other walks of life, and that includes Jackboot Smith and her 2nd-home expenses. Years ago they would have resigned in shame, today they go on the Morning Show and attempt to lie their way out of their blatant fraud/theft. I love the irony of JS being ‘grassed’ on by her sister’s neighbours, it was her that encouraged neighbours to whistle-blow on benefit cheats!

  • #90589
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Everybody

    It has been along time since I posted on here (about two years ago I think) but I have to say this thread is captivating. For me (being an ex estate agent) I think the “correction” in the market is a great thing. Two years ago I was being called all sorts of names by potential sellers because I was advising to be realistic in their pricing.

    How many times was I told that “Joe bloggs has got his on the market for €x, so thats what I want”

    Unfortunately for the sellers it seems that Joe Bloggs pricing was way out.

    In one case I was asked to value a property which I valued at 179K. The owner had paid 140K for it 2 years earlier but wanted 290K.

    I asked him why he thought his house had increased invalue so much, and his answer was that he wanted that amount of money so someone would buy it. (yes he was a Brit too)

    In another case even three years ago, I spoke to someone desperate to sell. He said he wanted 135K for a house probably worth 80K. I had investors willing to buy anything at the right price, and told him they wanted a 10% return on their investment, which after taxes doing the place up etc would mean he would get €65K (no my commission was 1% and paid by the buyers)

    He said no. Then called two days later to say he would sell at 65K. Unfortunaely they had bought elsewhere

    The point is that pretty much whatever the market there are always desperate sellers who need to sell and will accept the lowest offer to get out – Always – peolemake a living out of it. Even in a good market (and three years ago it wasnt bad)

    So providing properties are realistically priced, in good order and location and have no problems, there is a possibility to sell. 4 weeks ago I was in Marbella and stayed at a friends house – a penthouse. he had sold it and was vingback to theUK. He got 20% less than his asking price which was still more than he paid for it. (though admittedly had been there for 7 years)

    Buyers are out there – they just take a lot of time because they know they can

    For the record I have not been an estate agent for two years am now a musician and a consultant in the renewable energy field, but do keep an eye on the Spanish Property market because I still live here and have an interest.

    I also still know a lot of estate agents (past and present) as well as a few solicitors who keep me posted with news.

    Its not all doom and gloom. Its not pretty I grant you and in my opinion (just mine no one elses) the market has some way to slide before it gets better – but there are bargains to be had even now

    But take yur time – whatever you may be told there isno rush to buy at present and even if you lose out – there is probably a dozen more like the property you were going after.

    As for the question what to do if you wanted to sell in 3-6 months and other timescales. Well if you need to sell quickly, find out what the competition is doing and undercut themm by at least 15% – that at least will get people thinking about your place and may even get some viewings.

    However before going out and selling ask yourself if there isanything else youcando. Why are you selling? Do you need to sell. If its financial, talk to thebank, many now are helping by giving payment holidays, or interest only periods for a year or two, I even heard of one who took the prooperty back, rented out to the owner and gave them an option to buy back when times improved.

    So exhaust all your options before handing the keys back. Problems are only solutions that we have not yet found – so go find yours.

    Good luck to all potential buyers and sellers and hello again to everyone (especially Katy, Charlie, Goodstich)

    Vince

  • #90591
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    A big Hi to you too Vince – good to see a post from you after all this time.

    There’s definitely two (friendly) camps here: the “its not all doom and gloom” camp, and the “show me a twinkle on the horizon ‘cos I can’t see it yet” camp.
    I think more than ever in these times, a wise purchaser interested in buying now has to be in Spain and on the spot to find any true bargains as and when they come up. Glossy brochures and price lists are just not believable any more, nor is assumed legality. The integrity and honesty of many lawyers, agents, developers and even banks is long gone out the window.
    How times have changed. And you are absolutely right – there is no rush to buy, there are plenty of properties for sale out there.

    Still making great music I see.
    Did you know your “Its the weekend – time for some humour” thread is still going? Over 46,000 hits – must be a SPI record!

  • #90592
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Charlie

    Didnt realise it but now you mention it Ihave just had a look. I guess it just goes toshow that people still appreciate humour.

    Totally agree about being on the ground mind. It is essential – there are bargains tobe had but as you say buyers need tobe here to know they are a bargain and why (ie the place is not just cheap but good value – as mentionedby someone else or others previously on this thread)

    Thanks for the coment about the music. Am hopefully launching a CD in May (debut) just puttng finishing touches (mind have been doing that for two years now soit should be ready youd think). Will let you know. Tur of Spain,Germany and UK in theplanning stages too so all going well.

    Hope allis well with youand I noticed Claire around earlier onone of the threads

    Good luck to one and all

    Vince

  • #90598
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Vince

    well i’m still trying to get my deposit back, nearly 7 years down the line! Very little hope now to be realistic, and have largely moved on, but i feel it’s worth exploring every avenue, and doing what i can, for the sake of not only my family’s life savings, but anyone else caught up in the mess, now or in future.

    Sounds like you have a good grip on the property situation still. Certainly can’t see why anyone would rush in at the moment, but can understand why some agents are talking it up and saying ‘now is the time to buy’ Just desperation i think to get the market moving again, and make a living!

    Good luck with the CD and tour. Sounds great fun

  • #90646
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Vince,
    It’s good to hear from you again! If/when you visit the UK, take time to visit where we first met. At long last, (last week) the tunnel is now drilled through. It is an amazing project and well worth seeing.
    Good luck with the debut album.

    All the best,
    Claire.

  • #90649
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Claire

    good to hear from you to. I actually visited there last June – I was back in UK for a 3 week holiday (well it was meant to be ten days but broke a rib running in my nephews school sports day – that will teach me) The tunnel almost goes along to my old house (not quite but they have shifted the corner. I thought I had got the wrong street

    Anyway will let you know when the CD is released. I am planning on a 4 track EP first as a taster which will be a freebie giveaway, so if anyone is interested drop me a line close to May and I will tell you how to get it.

    Anyway enough promotion sorry Mark.

    Hope all is well with you – did you ever get your problem sorted out over in Spain? I seem to remember something that you had gotten the first step of the legal battle won

    Did your son ever find a place?

    Take care and all the best

    Vince

  • #90655
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Vince,

    Maybe time to stop showing off and give up sports days! It embarrasses the children ! 😆

    Yes we did get our money back from Spain + costs and interest ,all down to a tenacious lawyer. We count ourselves VERY lucky . We sued our original lawyer because our place was never built , but they kept all of the 7,000+ euros they took from us upfront (their terms..to pay for everything up to and including completion!) The case was heard in mid December but we are still awaiting a resolution!!! 👿

    My son has a lovely 3 bed house and is getting married on May 1st! 😀

    All the best

    Claire

  • #90657
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Great bargains to be had here!! €950,000 off of one property! 😆

    http://www.yourkeytospain.co.uk/properties-for-sale/distressed-discounted-properties/2/

  • #90695
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    @lenox wrote:
    … maybe you may want to wait another year or two before buying a home in Spain – but, do you want to waste another couple of years living in the UK or Ireland.

    It’s not necessary “to waste another couple of years”. If you have the money to buy and are able to leave UK, surely the solution is to stick your money somewhere safe bringing in some interest and simply rent while riding out the fall in prices. There are certainly tons of rentals out there for the choosing.
    To buy now rather than wait to me is madness, prices are only going one way in the foreseeable future.

    Elizabeth C has a (already reduced) 450,000 euro villa for sale. I have a feeling she may well need to reduce further before a sale is found.

    No need to reduce the price of my (already reduced) villa…it is rented and would make a good investment for someone who has cash and doesn’t need to pay a mortgage but wants the income! Not many investments out there today would pay 16,000 euros + per year!

    I love Spain and know it is only a matter of time before things will look up. Where else do you have such lovely weather, beaches, food, wine….. I only started the thread so that maybe we could get some positive comments going. As usual, people had to turn it into a doom fest!
    Love that euribor 2.1% yippeee!!

  • #90697
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @elizabeth C wrote:

    Not many investments out there today would pay 16,000 euros + per year!

    On a 450,000 euro investment?

    With respect Elizabeth, pro rata I’m getting more than that with my money simply sitting in the bank with no taxes, maintenance etc. to worry about. Admittedly not a British bank.
    Most importantly, my capital is not going down in value each month, unlike investment in property at the moment.
    I stand by my opinion, it is better to rent at the moment rather than buy into a sinking market. But it’s obviously just my opinion.

    Weather, beaches, food and wine are pretty good in places like Greece and Italy too. Spain isn’t the only place that offer these.
    As for this thread being a doom fest, I prefer to see it as a reality fest and has produced some good debate.

  • #90705
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    charlie

    So true. So important to keep it real.

    By the way, just tried to go on to the EOS site and got a big warning message that the site could damage my computer. The warning fills the whole page and says something like ‘Danger this is an attack site’ if you access this site, your private information may be given.

    It seems a fairly serious warning, so i didn’t log on, but i wonder if someone doesn’t want us putting info’ on, or reading current info? Might just be a computer glitch, or my PC security getting a bit over enthusiastic but looks a bit fishy? Can you or anyone reading this log on?

  • #90706
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    It’s happened before and been complained about! 😀 There’s obviously a glitch with the new system. This is what I got:

    Server Error in ‘/’ Application.



    The resource cannot be found.
    Description: HTTP 404. The resource you are looking for (or one of its dependencies) could have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable. Please review the following URL and make sure that it is spelled correctly.

    Requested URL: /Secure/Default.aspx

    Apologies Mark…just responding to goodstich. 😳

  • #90708
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Claire

    thanks for that, and yes, sorry Mark, just needed some fairly urgent info’.

  • #90728
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Now Viva sunshine props. (Viva Estates?) are emailing people with Costa del Sol price reductions. I’ve told them I’m not interested in the crooked Spanish property industry at these exchange rates either, not until Spain weed out the crooks like Awful Estates and others permanently. 😉

  • #90806
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Thus posts another spammer! Getting desperate methinks 😆

  • #90807
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jack wrote:

    I think the only good news for the moment is that the situation will go back to normal that is for sure, better days will come sooner than we think.

    Jack

    Jack, you appear to have invested your life savings in the promotion of PW!

    What is plan B when your chosen developer goes bust?

    The clock is ticking away quickly and I mean quickly.

    The concept is good, the market however has left them vulnerable to say the least.

    Do you have an alternative? I fear you have entered the market as an amateur several years too late!

  • #90812
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @peter Good wrote:

    @jack wrote:
    I think the only good news for the moment is that the situation will go back to normal that is for sure, better days will come sooner than we think.

    Jack

    Jack, you appear to have invested your life savings in the promotion of PW!

    What is plan B when your chosen developer goes bust?

    The clock is ticking away quickly and I mean quickly.

    The concept is good, the market however has left them vulnerable to say the least.

    Do you have an alternative? I fear you have entered the market as an amateur several years too late!

    I keep on reading that Polaris World was a good concept but they did not deliver.

    What was to deliver and it did not deliver? Did people whop bought knew that the Polaris World are not as nicely located as La Manga?

    I stayed once in La Torre and I found it acceptable for what it was to offer. As I am not a golfer, I shall never go back because it was located in the middle of nowhere.

    But I am not sure why the buyers there feel cheated… Is it only because the market value for 2 bed apts there is now under 100K as compared to the 200K+ they expected?

  • #90813
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Time waster called Jack trying to promote his business selling PW now kicked off forum (which explains 3 comments above). He managed to make about 7 posts whilst I was in the gym.

    Mark

  • #90815
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Ahhhh, now the posts make sense!

    By the way some of the major banks either refuse outright or have a moritorium on lending any monies on Polaris World!!! (too worried that on repossession the properties are unsaleable in order to recover in full their lending!)

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