50% price falls in UK are actually possible…

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This topic contains 91 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of GJ GJ 8 years, 5 months ago.

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  • #53913
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    Anonymous
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    As I said before, I did not expect a big fall in house prices in UK. Now I almost expect the big fall but still much lower than 50%…

    If they do fall 50%, then the life in UK will be much different.. This is already visible in USA where people do not have money to repair the car brakes and headlights and sell personal belongings on ebay or Craigslist to raise money for purchasing food.

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/news/property-and-mortgages/content.aspx?ID=301968&re=2949&ea=118560

  • #81953
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    ralita, IMPO, it’s just not worth worrying about reports like that !. Just get on with enjoying life and worry about events if & when they happen.

  • #81954
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    Claire wrote:
    ralita, IMPO, it’s just not worth worrying about reports like that !. Just get on with enjoying life and worry about events if & when they happen.

    I do not worry at all, on the contrary. I recently started thinking of moving to a better area and a 50% drop would suit me well.

    But all my neigbors have new cars, plasma TV-s bought on credit and MEW-s. They might be in for a nasty surprise when the remortgage time comes and some will find out that the equity is on the red…

  • #81955
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    katy
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    Some of those reports have no relation to reality. Some will suffer, many won’t. Must say I read about the last recession in the UK but never felt it. Also sold a house quickly at a price we were prepared to reduce.

    Every week around 10 cruise ships leave Miami..full. Average passengers 2500 and 90% are American.

    So, house prices in the UK will drop 50%! Well, they have dropped 1% in a year πŸ™‚

  • #81957
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    As I said, I still do not believe in 50% reductions.

    But it is already a 6% drop since August 2007. Add the 5% inflation and get an 8% drop…

    It might come a time when people won’t be interested in buying anymore or banks won’t give them money.

    About cruises in Miami, I do not expect 300 million Americans to become poor overnight.
    But the reality is that house prices have fallen in some places in Florida by 80% and
    many places in California by 75%.

  • #81958
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    @ralita wrote:

    But all my neigbors have new cars, plasma TV-s bought on credit and MEW-s. They might be in for a nasty surprise when the remortgage time comes and some will find out that the equity is on the red…

    How do you know that Ralita? Maybe they saved for it first and maybe they have company cars!
    As my husband says each time the News comes on,……… the media will talk the UK into a recession ( and he is an “eternally pessimistic chartered accountant”! :()

  • #81959
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    Claire wrote:
    But all my neigbors have new cars, plasma TV-s
    How do you know that Ralita? Maybe they saved for it first and maybe they have company cars!

    Because I have conversations with them and they kept on saying that they could take a
    secured loand and buy electronics or put a downpayment for a new car, etc.
    And I always ask them why don’t they save money first and they say that why save and banks give them money with low interest rate…

    You can imagine that they are not the brightest of people, hence the reason I shall move soon from that blue-collarish neighborhood.

    About media, they always have Vested Interest. They talked the property up when many of the journalists had BTL portofolios, then they sold the portofolios and now talk the market down hoping to buy on the deep a new BTL portofolio. It is quite smart…

  • #81960
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    ralita

    You can imagine that they are not the brightest of people, hence the reason I shall move soon from that blue-collarish neighborhood,

    See your point! πŸ˜‰ Thankfully, not everyone acts like your neighbours.

  • #81961
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    What makes people think that the ones that write reports etc should be listened to? They know little more that anyone who is interested in the market and are just guessing the same as the man in the street, although granted it is a calculated guess. Sure some will get it right. As for saying that the UK market will fall 50% well that is not even good enough for toilet paper!

  • #81962
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    @jwc wrote:

    What makes people think that the ones that write reports etc should be listened to?

    So you believe that everyone has knowledge in the financial/property market?
    I can now understand why so many people have huge debts.

    @ralita wrote:

    new cars, plasma TV-s bought on credit and MEW-s. They might be in for a nasty surprise when the remortgage time comes and some will find out that the equity is on the red…

    Yes, that seems the way it has gone. no common sense, let alone financial sense. Come to think of it respect and responsibility is lacking.

  • #81963
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    “Come to think of it respect and responsibility is lacking.”

    The above is the back bone of society. Whether the respect for teachers, elders, money, etc. Where do you start when the leaders.

    Tony Blair did not have the dignity to resign on Iraq, John Presscott went an punched a Civilian before having holidays in USA & caribbean,

    CEO’s of BA/Northern Rock did not resign either. It not been published that Tony Blair was recently caught on surface train travelling without a ticket. This is the same person who had free holidays by Berlusconi, cliff Richard etc, and even claimed TV licence fee.

    If these people cannot set an example as leaders, why should anybody take responsibility or respect. Respect is earned through deeds and not demanded by spin.

  • #81966
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    jwc wrote:
    What makes people think that the ones that write reports etc should be listened to? They know little more that anyone who is interested in the market and are just guessing the same as the man in the street, although granted it is a calculated guess. Sure some will get it right. As for saying that the UK market will fall 50% well that is not even good enough for toilet paper!

    The history usually repeats itself. The house prices usually go on a trend and the increase is usually a bit more than the rate of inflation.

    The house price tripled in UK in 10 years, in order to go back to the trend they NEED to decrease by 50%.

    The question is: is it different this time such that the trend story becomes obsolete?

    The man on the street does not know much abouyt trends and very little about graphs and mathematics.

    It is very risky to say that mathematics and history are not even good enough for toilet paper…

  • #81968
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    @ralita wrote:

    The history usually repeats itself. The house prices usually go on a trend and the increase is usually a bit more than the rate of inflation.

    The house price tripled in UK in 10 years, in order to go back to the trend they NEED to decrease by 50%.

    The question is: is it different this time such that the trend story becomes obsolete?

    The man on the street does not know much abouyt trends and very little about graphs and mathematics.

    It is very risky to say that mathematics and history are not even good enough for toilet paper…

    Well, I’ve been looking at rents and property prices around my way and the yield seems to suggest that prices should drop 50% to give any investor a 10% yield. I can’t believe it myself but those are the figures. I imagine I am doing something wrong or I have used an unrealistic sample.

  • #81969
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    @shakeel wrote:

    why should anybody take responsibility or respect

    A wonderful example of why we are in the mess we are in.
    I would expect such a comment from many, but not from one who can read or write.

  • #81970
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    mg: You are indeed right in not expecting the comment from me irrespective whether I can write or not. Joe public is a breed of its own and if they don’t have a role model and that to me where it starts from politicians & industry leaders. It really does not matter what slant you or I have on these matters.

    Mike: 10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times. If you getting 5% gross you are doing well. There are people who will look at historic cost of the property, with the current rents.

  • #81972
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    @shakeel wrote:

    if they don’t have a role model and that to me where it starts from politicians & industry leaders.

    So who do you blame for such people being “leaders”. Whoever voted for them. Enough said.

    @shakeel wrote:

    Mike: 10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.

    Sorry, no I am not, but complete and utter rubbish. Obviously written by someone who does not know what the hell they are on about. No wonder beople get in a mess. Little knowledge……..

  • #81973
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    “Sorry, no I am not, but complete and utter rubbish. Obviously written by someone who does not know what the hell they are on about. No wonder beople get in a mess. Little knowledge “

    Mg: I don’t who have you direct your statement to. If its me than I am sorry to disappoint you that I am not willing to get into a discussion with you as its quite obvious that we are on different planets.

  • #81978
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    mg wrote:
    Mike: 10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.

    Sorry, no I am not, but complete and utter rubbish. Obviously written by someone who does not know what the hell they are on about.
    [/quote]

    Hi mg,

    sorry to ask you, why do you need to use words like “rubbish” or “stupid” or “what the hell” in the conversations??

    One cannot really have a dialogue in these conditions. Shakeel expressed his opinions as all of us do here.

    Mark posted a couple of days ago one thread asking us to restrain from offensive language… Let’s please try to respect his request…

  • #81979
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    Now look what you have done Ralita..you have woken old Mr. Grumpy up πŸ˜†

  • #81980
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    OK, so you may consider “rubbish” or “stupid” or “what the hell” to be offensive language, whereas I find comments such as “10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.” to be offensive and insulting to property investors.

    “Mr. Grumpy”, what do you expect when statements are made which are completely untrue.

    If you are talking of “investors” who get a buy to let (residential), borrow all they can, then rent out to whoever, maybe so, I wouldn’t be able to comment on that.
    What I do know is that there are still opportunities where the tenants are a good covenant and yielding 10%

    Before making such statements, people should realise that a novice may read and take as fact and it has obviously been written without evidence.

    Grumpy, you are entitled to your opinion, but at least factual.

  • #81982
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    mg wrote:
    OK, so you may consider “rubbish” or “stupid” or “what the hell” to be offensive language, whereas I find comments such as “10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.” to be offensive and insulting to property investors.

    The usual amateur BTL-er is happy with 5% return.
    One really has to have a good knowledge and/or be lucky to buy when the prices are cheapest. Not all of us have access to insight knowledge and not all of us are lucky to buy at the right time and in the right place…

  • #81984
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    I, suggest that readers should check out with Independent website , including ARLA, RIC ‘s and verify themselves what yield can be obtained.

    If, some has been able to bag a bargain & can get a higher than 5%, than that is exception and not the rule. In a forum like this we are talking of norms and not exceptions. Perhaps mg surname is Rachman.

  • #81985
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    All the more reason that nobody should state “10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.” , when it is not fact, unless they can support it.

    “I, suggest that readers should check out with Independent website , including ARLA, RIC ‘s and verify themselves what yield can be obtained.”
    Or if people wish the true facts and not as a result of a survey by RICS, etc., why not try property investors website, of which there are many, small, medium and large. Get it from the horse’s mouth. Ignore the stable boy.

    “can get a higher than 5%, than that is exception” – again, and at the risk of being offensive, absolut rubbish.

    “In a forum like this we are talking of norms and not exceptions.”
    No, you are not even talking fact and sense. even as bad as the market is you can buy umpteen inventment with 7%+ yield and a high percentage at 9%+
    Nothing exceptional about that and if your portfolio is not achieving that, get yourself a good portfolio manager, as you are obviously not capable of managing it yourself.

    “Perhaps mg surname is Rachman.”
    The insults, I am used to on here, a criminal I am not, a crook I am not.
    Why is it that there are many on here who do not like facts? ❓

  • #81986
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    @katy wrote:

    Now look what you have done Ralita..you have woken old Mr. Grumpy up πŸ˜†

    Well done Katy! mg = Mr. Grumpy!!!! πŸ˜†

  • #81987
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    @Claire wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    Now look what you have done Ralita..you have woken old Mr. Grumpy up πŸ˜†

    Well done Katy! mg = Mr. Grumpy!!!! πŸ˜†

    Pleeeease be adult and stop the gang or tribal attitude.That attitude resemble children in the playground.

  • #81988
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    Learn to live with it mg…as we do with your non informative , rude and insulting responses. You could always quit the forum if it’s not to your liking. πŸ˜€

    mg

    Nothing exceptional about that and if your portfolio is not achieving that, get yourself a good portfolio manager, as you are obviously not capable of managing it yourself.

    So it’s OK for you to make remarks like this is it and then you get upset when someone else gives the same back to you?

  • #81989
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    Portfolio managers dont come free and their charges will bring your yeild down.

  • #81990
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    A yield is calculated as a % of the annual rent divided by the capital value. (apologize to those who are aware of this )

    Lets, say a typical cost of property is Β£250K in twenty minutes commuting into London , to get 10% yield it should be rented for Β£25,000 per year and this means a rent of Β£2083 p.m.

    If, some one finds this kind of property, please let me know. I will buy the whole street. Gold taps & avocado bath tub not included,

  • #81992
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    shakeel wrote:
    Lets, say a typical cost of property is Β£250K in twenty minutes commuting into London , to get 10% yield it should be rented for Β£25,000 per year and this means a rent of Β£2083 p.m.

    If, some one finds this kind of property, please let me know. I will buy the whole street. Gold taps & avocado bath tub not included,

    This is exactly the argument why the house prices need to fall by 50%.

    Considering that the banks offer 5% per year and to gain as BTL-er one needs to get at least 2% more than the bank rate, a 7% return is a must.
    Especially in a market with stable prices, where the boom is history.

    Let me give you one example in the area I am interested. The rent per month is 600 month i.e. 7200 per year. Considering the tax on rent and possible repairs, this would bring to about 5000K/year. To buy the same apartment is 150K. Is anybody crazy to purchase at this price?
    It should go down by at least 50% in order to make sense at a 8% return.

    I think USA is the only place now where some future 10% could be possible (as long as the Pound/Dollar is around 2).
    Maybe Spain will offer a 10% at the bottom.

  • #81993
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    This argument was about yields and not the reduction of prices.

  • #81994
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    shakeel wrote:
    This argument was about yields and not the reduction of prices.

    I am not sure what you mean here….

    The lower the purchase price, the higher the yield (rents do not vary too much).

    Is it clearer now?

  • #81995
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    @Claire wrote:

    Learn to live with it mg…as we do with your non informative , rude and insulting responses. You could always quit the forum if it’s not to your liking. πŸ˜€

    Likewise, if you do not like my postings.

    PS
    Don’t get upset as I accept it as the norm here, where people blurt out a comment, without even knowing about the subject, obviously.

  • #81996
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    @shakeel wrote:

    A yield is calculated as a % of the annual rent divided by the capital value. (apologize to those who are aware of this )

    Lets, say a typical cost of property is Β£250K in twenty minutes commuting into London , to get 10% yield it should be rented for Β£25,000 per year and this means a rent of Β£2083 p.m.

    Why not say:
    RI of Β£196,000 (14000 @ Β£14)
    Purchase price of Β£2.225m
    I think all will agree that that is considerably above the yields mentioned here.
    I accept that it is a retail store, but isn’t that property, whereas someone stated “10% of yield on property has been unheard of in the best of times.”

    Money can still be made from property, depending on what property you purchase and how you purchase it. If you but an overpriced house or apartment and borrow high, then you deserve what you get in the end.

    @shakeel wrote:

    I will buy the whole street. Gold taps & avocado bath tub not included,

    Properties with such naff fittings are now lowly priced in general.
    If you wish to but the whole street and will accept a parade of shops, there is one that has been offered to us cΒ£10m which you can contact me if you are interested.

  • #81997
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    With the way UK prices have been falling (for the last 6 months) and the change in the balance of activity (mortgage lending/buyers registering with EA/property sales down 30 to 40% and inventory per Estate Agent up) the market has turned. The 1% fall should be put in perspective this is a YOY, fall average across UK.

    Many of the stats coming down stream at us in the UK are scary, we look in much worse shape then the US were at this stage of their down cycle in 2006 or the UK in 1989.

    To put the 1% fall in perspective. In the last crash UK prices only fell on average circa 17% (1989 to 1994). But you could take your pick from hundreds of thousands of perfectly good properties which were up for sale for between -25 to 50%+ below their previous peaks.

    With prices falling and all the indicators (not just the media) predicting this to continue, the banks not lending and the economy slowing rapidly leading to big job losses, the chattering classes finally realising that borrowing lots of money (relative to historic fundamental ratios) to buy property and then borrowing against a β€˜moments in time’ increase in its value, to fund lifestyle purchasers (in some cases other property), can in many cases lose you a lot of money, it’s all going to come as a shock.

    For a generation used to tarting between 3 to 4% mortgage rates 5 to 7% is the equivalent of the jump in 1989 to 92 of 8 to 12% mortgage rates. And this time the debts/ domestic bills are bigger and so are the mortgages relative to salaries. Add to this that BTL is now circa 11% of the market (much added at the peak on the last 3 years) as opposed to circa 1% last time and it looks like big trouble not too far ahead.

    As I’ve said before for a generation of under-40 year olds it’s going to be a whole new experience.

    Nu Labours whole economic model is built on tax and spend, and is underpinned by a mountain of state, corporate and personal debt. It could never go on.

  • #81998
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    Pablo–you mention the last recession. The house I bought in 1988 in Reading had fallen in price by 26% by 1992, by 1994 it had risen by 35%.

    When I sold in 2002 it had quadrupled in price & 6 months later my buyer had sold it on for 20% more. Today that house is has risen by 15% over that price.

    Tell me property in the UK is a bad bet!

    You have to take a long term view.

    Buy 5 or more flats in Liverpoool, Manchester or Nottingham, of course sight unseen, do no research, don’t even go to the Town or development, trust the selling agents to tell you the truth on returns, you will have a problem & it is no different in Spain.

  • #82000
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    mg wrote:
    If you but an overpriced house or apartment and borrow high, then you deserve what you get in the end.

    Exactly, that is the mistake many amateurs BTL-er made in the recent years. They bought expensive property with the hope of capital gains but with little yields.

  • #82001
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    rob6578 wrote:
    Pablo–you mention the last recession. The house I bought in 1988 in Reading had fallen in price by 26% by 1992, by 1994 it had risen by 35%.

    Don’t you wish you bought it in 1992 instead on 1988? 26% drop is real prices combined with high inflation during the 1988-1992 period make it a
    35-40% loss…

    We know now that prices are going down, why buy in May 2008 instead of May 2010 (this refers to both Spain and UK)?

  • #82003
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    ralita–Of course I would have been better off if I had bought at a different time, but I bought when I did. I didn’t have to sell in the early 90’s although I had a difficult time, others suffered far more than I did & sold & lost money. By not selling until 2002 I quadruplied my money, which I couldn’t have done elsewhere & I had somewhere to live.

    My point is that property in ‘most’ of the Uk is a good thing to have provided you take a long term view.

    I don’t see prices falling where I live in Surrey or where I work in Somereset. Bath & the surrounding area have, like Surrey, held its prices & in some cases prices are rising now.

    The mistake people make is to think that EVERY property across the Uk is going to drop which is nonsense.

    Just because there is a gross over supply of flats in Northern cities & the BTL market in those places is collapsing doesn’t mean that BTL is dead everywhere.

    If you are in the right area & can take a 5-10 year view you won’t have a problem. If you quick returns, buying multiple units off plan & wanting to flip the contracts you will lose out.

  • #82004
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    A story about a UK HPC πŸ™„ . From ralita of all people.

  • #82007
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    I cannot see prices falling 50% in the UK.

  • #82008
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    I think we will be looking at low digit falls this year (3-5%), smaller falls next year (1-3%) with a recovery the year after.

    The economy remains robust and employment is high. The credit crunch will disappear as quickly as it appeared with true losses being overstated at the moment. Mortgage defaults / late payments are not expected to rise quickly.

    There are a lot of buyers out there with cash waiting for a bargain. When these bargains do not materialise (as they are not in Spain!) then the buyers will move back into property as soon as they sniff that prices may actually be starting to rise.

    All this talk about a massive recession is ‘over-cooked’.

  • #82009
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    I actually saw an interesting stat that said notts town centre prices had fell circa 2% YOY.

    Nottinghamshire (the county) prices had rose 3% YOY.

    Of course this is the much quoted new build flat problem in Notts and certain other cities. Certain types of property (the BTL fodder) could be impacted significantly with overbuild/low yield.

    There could/is likely to be a degree of fall out in the UK house market in general, largely dependent upon the credit crunch and the follow on unemployment implications of a (possible) down turn in the economy.

    The effect of this no one knows. Nominal falls/real falls once the effect of inflation, impact of falling interest rates (once credit crunch eases), tightness in supply of certain properties etc etc.

  • #82019
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    @jsmith wrote:

    I cannot see prices falling 50% in the UK.

    In some areas they already have on new build.
    Heard the one about the National housing developer would could not honour a Section 106, so off-loaded at less than 50%. Fact.

  • #82020
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    Property in the Uk is a good long term investment. But buying at the wrong time can mean you sit on a loss situation for circa 7 to 10 years, as thousands found out last time arround.

    As stated is is currently possible to fined examples of 50% falls but they are on distressed previously overpriced property. We are just at the begining.

    We are in the middle of the first phase of the credit crunch. It is now a self fulfilling situation the seeds of which were sown between 2001 and 2006. It can crash quickly, say 2 years or slowly say 5 to 6 years but crash it is. There is nothing that can halt this much needed correction as market forces return prices to what can be supported by fundimentals.

    ALL UK propert will fall in price, some areas/properties less than others and thats what makes the historical average price falls look so benign.

  • #82021
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    Mary Hinge wrote:
    A story about a UK HPC πŸ™„ . From ralita of all people.

    Would you prefer to talk about HPSs in Bulgaria and Polaris World?

    I consider those HPSs to be old news already, nobody wants to talk about failures.

  • #82023
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    @pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:

    they are on distressed previously overpriced property. We are just at the begining.

    The housing developer may be distressed.
    A fine marina development and couldn’t off-load.

  • #82046
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    @mg wrote:

    No, you are not even talking fact and sense. even as bad as the market is you can buy umpteen inventment with 7%+ yield and a high percentage at 9%+
    Nothing exceptional about that and if your portfolio is not achieving that, get yourself a good portfolio manager, as you are obviously not capable of managing it yourself.

    If I don’t expect property prices to increase, and I don’t, then I would only buy on a rental yield of 10%. I understand that in some countries property is held by a family for generations and the expected yield is lower because of that. That’s a cultural thing, I am thinking of my own circumstances when investing in property and making more than I could get by leaving my money in the bank.

  • #82048
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    @shakeel wrote:

    A yield is calculated as a % of the annual rent divided by the capital value. (apologize to those who are aware of this )

    Lets, say a typical cost of property is Β£250K in twenty minutes commuting into London , to get 10% yield it should be rented for Β£25,000 per year and this means a rent of Β£2083 p.m.

    If, some one finds this kind of property, please let me know. I will buy the whole street. Gold taps & avocado bath tub not included,

    That’s my point, it doesn’t make sense. Something has to give to make it a worthwhile investment and that’s why I believe the price will come down

  • #82049
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    @ralita wrote:

    @Mary Hinge wrote:
    A story about a UK HPC πŸ™„ . From ralita of all people.

    Would you prefer to talk about HPSs in Bulgaria and Polaris World?

    I consider those HPSs to be old news already, nobody wants to talk about failures.

    Again, you talk in terms of ‘certainty’, with nothing to back up your arguments. Anyway, at least polarisworld would be Spain.

    Your the kng of nowhere, ralita, too long on the forums such that you think fact is what you right.

  • #82054
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    Mary Hinge wrote:
    Anyway, at least polarisworld would be Spain.

    You are wrong. Not all the purchases in Spain were as bad as La Torre resort.
    I do not think that prices for new resorts fell 50% in one year in many places. Polaris World leads the way.
    Bulgaria is not even worth mentioning, it cannot get worse than there.

  • #82057
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    @jsmith wrote:

    I cannot see prices falling 50% in the UK.

    It does seem incredible, doesn’t it? Obviously people in the States thought the same a couple of years ago. I’m just looking a some of the properties I see and the rent they demand, it’s not a proper study at all.

  • #82058
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    ralita wrote:
    I do not think that prices for new resorts fell 50% in one year in many places. Polaris World leads the way.

    Quote:
    You have got to be kidding me. Again you quote statistics, eg 50% this and that, that you want to believe, but just have no basis in fact.

    You’re so desperate to believe the HPC warble of the last 5 years, you’ve regressed into fantasy land.

  • #82059
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Mary Hinge wrote:
    You have got to be kidding me. Again you quote statistics, eg 50% this and that, that you want to believe, but just have no basis in fact.

    Polaris World sold 2 bedroom apts. for 83K Euros and 2 bedroom villas for 134K Euros last month. That was 50% reduction from what you probably paid.

    They contacted me and I declined my interest as I do not want to own there because I did not like the resort.

    So the owners believe that their apts. are worth 50% of their peak prices…

  • #82062
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Ralita πŸ™‚

    You have posted that property prices need to fall by 50% to make property a worth while investment in relation to rental income of say
    10 %.
    Then I think you said that the chance of U.K proprty falling by that amount if reported is worth toilet paper. πŸ˜•
    While of course if you consider that only the rental income does not stack up.
    What if you purchased a property at Β£60 K say 10 years ago and have a 5 % yeild and the property is now selling at 180K + ?
    Rental yeilds have increased by a substantial amount also should should one not factor this in when taking a total overall view.

    Regards to you πŸ™‚

    Just Frank 8)

  • #82063
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Just Frank wrote:
    What if you purchased a property at Β£60 K say 10 years ago and have a 5 % yeild and the property is now selling at 180K + ?

    Do you think there is any chance that property would be worth 540K+ in 2018?

    What if the same property will be 200K or less in 2018? Is the 5% yield still worth?

    Low yields are only good during boom periods… This is how many amateur BTL-ers were sucked into purchansing in the last years.

  • #82064
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ralita
    In 2000 if someone had told me that a 60K property would be worth 200K in 2007 I would have laughed and thought they were nuts .

    Just Frank 8)

  • #82067
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Just Frank wrote:
    In 2000 if someone had told me that a 60K property would be worth 200K in 2007 I would have laughed and thought they were nuts .

    The future always brings surprises.

  • #82071
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mg wrote:

    @jsmith wrote:
    I cannot see prices falling 50% in the UK.

    In some areas they already have on new build.
    Heard the one about the National housing developer would could not honour a Section 106, so off-loaded at less than 50%. Fact.

    The situation then is much worser than what I had bargained for. Thank you MG. πŸ™‚

  • #82079
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    If a 200k property is yielding 10% that’s 20K in rental income.

    That same renter could buy the 200k property with a 100% mortgage at 5% (or could until recently) for 10k in mortgage interest, with security of tenure, freedom to improve/modify and generally view the property as a life long investment.

    No sane person is going to rent and give the landlord a 10% yield.

    So any argument that prices have to fall to this level are wide off the mark as properties would simply be half the cost to buy as to rent.

  • #82080
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    jp1 wrote:
    No sane person is going to rent and give the landlord a 10% yield.
    So any argument that prices have to fall to this level are wide off the mark as properties would simply be half the cost to buy as to rent.

    6% is the lowest mortgage one with very good credit can find these days.

    Add the 20% deposit (i.e. 40K cash) which very few have.

    All arguments cannot be proved at the moment, in two years from now we will be able to comment who was right and who was wrong…

  • #82082
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Ralita
    Just wished I kept that 60k property that I sold because it wasnt giving me the yield πŸ˜₯
    I sold at 90K after reading soooo many reports that the market was going to go into free fall after 9/11 πŸ˜₯
    Oh ❓ For a crystal ball at times like this. πŸ™„
    Fancy a punt on Bank Shares πŸ˜†

    Just Frank 8)

  • #82088
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Just Frank wrote:
    I sold at 90K after reading soooo many reports that the market was going to go into free fall after 9/11 πŸ˜₯

    Yeah, but Alan Greenspan cut the US interest rates to 1% soon after 7/11.
    It was obvious that the excesses were about to happen.

    There is always a second chance in life. :)))

  • #82092
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    ralita

    I have seen you post so much rubbish on this forum. However, you do not show your location in your profile and your posts indicate that you are not and have no interest in being involved in property in Spain

    If you wish to be taken seriously, it is about time you threw your hat into the ring and became transparent.

    “Me thinks you are a dreamer!” Is it that you would like to live in Spain but do not have the finance nor the ability to raise the finance to do so?

    If you do not own property in Spain and have no wish, intent or means to do so, maybe you need to think again about what you are doing here?

  • #82093
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “I have seen you post so much rubbish on this forum”.
    And we’ve all seen yours Rob, haven’t we.: http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3050&start=0

    “If you wish to be taken seriously, it is about time you threw your hat into the ring and became transparent”.
    Pot, kettle, black…………

    Again another post from you that contributes nothing to the debate, just a verbal slagging off of another member.

    “……maybe you need to think again about what you are doing here?”.
    In your case, we all wonder that.
    Boredom? πŸ˜‰

  • #82094
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “I have seen you post so much rubbish on this forum. However, you do not show your location in your profile and your posts indicate that you are not and have no interest in being involved in property in Spain.”

    You use again words like “rubbish”, which show your lack of politeness. Did you read Marc’s message asking people to discuss politely?

    I did not know that this forum is reserved to people who own property in Spain. Could you please indicate where it is written that?

    I live in Northwest of England with a job which pays me twice as much as I would have gotten in Spain for the same job.

    “”Me thinks you are a dreamer!” Is it that you would like to live in Spain but do not have the finance nor the ability to raise the finance to do so?”

    I guess almost everybody would like to live in Spain, who likes rain and cold wind? But would I take a 50% salary cut to live there? NO, thank you.
    I go to Spain 2 or 3 times per year, whenever I have time, find cheap flights or a conference such that my expenses are fully paid.

    I have more than enough finances to purchase cash in Spain but I do not intend to do so before the bottom of the crash, whenever that is. This is why I am following the evolution of prices over there…

    Rob, please tell me if you would like to know more about my intentions.

  • #82096
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Ralita πŸ™‚
    Glad to hear that one day you may be purchasing in Spain when the property prices crash. πŸ˜•
    I have to ask myself the question? Is this the reason that you tend to talk the market down predicting crashes in the hope that you will find the bargain you are looking for. ❓
    While I admire your stance to support the noble cause of being polite and to not be rude,you yourself are perhaps not the best to preach to others.
    I dont think that Robs posting was insulting,it was his opinion.
    Come on? Whats the problem wiv RUBBISH πŸ˜• GET REAL.

    Just Frank 8)

  • #82097
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Just Frank wrote:

    I dont think that Robs posting was insulting,it was his opinion.

    Frank – it would be nice oneday to hear an opinion on Spanish property insight as against purely his opinion on other members.
    We can live in hope I suppose, but don’t think that’s his ‘game’. πŸ˜‰ 8)

  • #82098
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Just Frank wrote:
    Glad to hear that one day you may be purchasing in Spain when the property prices crash. πŸ˜•
    I have to ask myself the question? Is this the reason that you tend to talk the market down predicting crashes in the hope that you will find the bargain you are looking for.

    The property in Spain is crashing. Ask Inez about it and she can explain to you in much detail.

    I do not like to catch falling knives.

    I do not look for bargains but I do not like to overpay either. I would hate to pay one price today and see that in one year prices would have fallen.
    I never overpaid for anything in my entire life…

    About politeness, March asked to restrain and I decided to respect his request.

  • #82099
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “I have more than enough finances to purchase cash in Spain but I do not intend to do so before the bottom of the crash, whenever that is. This is why I am following the evolution of prices over there… “

    Ralita
    If you think you will know when the market has bottomed out please let us all know and we can live happily in luxury ever after. I have traded commodities most of my life and I can count on one hand when I bought at the bottom of the market. The trick is to buy nearer the bottom than the top whenever that is.

  • #82101
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “If you think you will know when the market has bottomed out please let us all know and we can live happily in luxury ever after. “

    I agree that in Spain it is a bit harder to call the bottom than in USA or even UK. I do not know any official source for Spanish property evolutions, I just look at prices in places I know.

    Even if one does not find the bottom, a 5% increase from the bottom is not a big deal as it is much closer to the bottom than to the top.

    In equities/commodities, the jump from the bottom can be quite fast, in real estate there always is a flat period at the bottom before the next boom starts.

  • #82107
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Ralita πŸ™‚
    Your Quote
    I do not look for bargains but I do not like to overpay either. I would hate to pay one price today and see that in one year prices would have fallen.
    I never overpaid for anything in my entire life…

    BLOODY AMAZING 😯
    Are you an arsset manager if so know wonder you have all expences paid trips πŸ™‚

    Dont think anyone wants to overpay on anything and you must be the first person I have ever met that hasnt. πŸ™‚
    I will wait until one of your 3 visits to Spain that tells you that the market has bottomed out and you just let me know . 😯
    Now I am thinking of moving here in the U.K and dont want to call it at the wrong time so do I sell now and wait for the market to drop,(by want percentage ?)and buy back in and if so will you also be prepared to let me have the insight of where do I catch the bottom.

    I have been looking for someone like you all of my life so dont you go anywhere. πŸ˜‰

    Just Frank 8)

  • #82110
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Now I am thinking of moving here in the U.K and dont want to call it at the wrong time so do I sell now and wait for the market to drop,”

    You are a bit late to Sell to Rent. People in the know did it about 6 months ago. I wanted to do it myself but my wife did not like the idea.

    “I have been looking for someone like you all of my life so dont you go anywhere. πŸ˜‰ “

    Should I take as a marriage proposal? :))))

  • #82111
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    another post from you that contributes nothing to the debate, just a verbal slagging off of another member.

    This is not a slagging off of a member. In the recent past I have made posts and in walks ralita in size 13’s to make comments that make no sense at all – they are just quotes of other peoples thoughts intended to show that ralita has nothing positive to add to debates. I do not slag off other members but do try to offer a debate, based on facts and my own thoughts.

    @charlie wrote:

    ……maybe you need to think again about what you are doing here?”.
    In your case, we all wonder that.
    Boredom?

    No charlie, I am interested in facts not bits that I have seen others quote on other sites that I feel the need to link to to try and seem important. Bored? – guess so when I read the rubbish posted by a few members of this forum!!

    @ralita wrote:

    You use again words like “rubbish”, which show your lack of politeness

    Quite honestly ralita, that comment was actually answered by charlie……

    @charlie wrote:

    Pot, kettle, black…………

    @ralita wrote:

    I did not know that this forum is reserved to people who own property in Spain.

    No one has ever said that it is. However, it is fair to assume that those that post items do so because they have a genuine interest in the Spanish property market be it as an owner or prospective purchaser as opposed to someone wanting to waste working hours dealing with a subject that they have no insight into!

    @ralita wrote:

    I live in Northwest of England with a job which pays me twice as much as I would have gotten in Spain for the same job.

    Guess that explains much. The Spanish pay a fair price for the job and the cost of living is so much lower. If you are being overpaid in the UK, fair enough. However, if living in the NW of England is to be taken as a benchmark, then we have to bear in mind that a three bed detached house in the BETTER NW of England has a value on average equal to a two bed “box” or flat on the CDS that we see so often slated on this forum. That same house in the central South of England has a value equal to a 3 bed villa in Spain.

    The thing is ralita, you do post as if you have knowledge and insight, whereas you seem to have neither. Last week I made the point that you posted links to two different sites that were showing blogs with the same info, yet one you gave a meaning to of “Spain is in trouble” and the other [identical] you claimed showed that Spain has problems but the UK is in even worse trouble. The two stories you linked to carried the same info from the same source yet you managed to quote as opposites!

    @ralita wrote:

    I go to Spain 2 or 3 times per year, whenever I have time, find cheap flights or a conference such that my expenses are fully paid.

    And that makes you an expert on Spanish Property matters or a cheapskate?

    I do not intend to insult anyone when I post on this forum. However, there are times that other members post such rubbish [sic] that when a response is given (based upon the actual facts that they have tried to post in negative and incorrect ways) that proves the status of their posting as rubbish, that member has no response and goes into “insulting” claims as they do not actually know how to respond themselves. I think the only comment that can be made is “if the cap fits, wear it!”)

    I give opinions, REASONED opinions, based upon FACTS and backed by hands on experience of the Spanish Property Market. I do not deal with things on the basis of an “outsider looking in” with no actual knowledge or experience.

  • #82113
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Deleted my comments to save the thread.

  • #82114
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Surely another thread in danger of being locked. What do some of these posters get off on. It seems that we have some seriously judgemental people around this site.

    There are one or two individuals who just need to get a life – a “real” life!

  • #82116
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Ralita
    Sorry have already asked Hairy Mary to marry me as she has lots of dosh. πŸ˜†
    However have a feeling that she may be a he as it sort of let the cat out of the bag when it was said that he/she was sat pi–sing themselves.
    Now have looked for a women that belches and fa-ts like be and being rich as well would have been the ice on the cake but somehow dont think she/he is the one so you never know πŸ˜‰
    KEEP HAPPY πŸ˜†

    Just Frank 8)

    Hang on ? Just read yer post again and your a bloke :shock:Does yer wife know about this πŸ˜•
    Not only rude people but perverts as well πŸ™„
    Sorry Oliver the thread will bound to be closed now,

  • #82118
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    If a 200k property is yielding 10% that’s 20K in rental income.

    That same renter could buy the 200k property with a 100% mortgage at 5% (or could until recently) for 10k in mortgage interest, with security of tenure, freedom to improve/modify and generally view the property as a life long investment.

    No sane person is going to rent and give the landlord a 10% yield.

    So any argument that prices have to fall to this level are wide off the mark as properties would simply be half the cost to buy as to rent.

    Then how would landlords make money? Surely not by simply accepting a return less than they would get in a bank with less risk?

  • #82119
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    [quote)

    Then how would landlords make money? Surely not by simply accepting a return less than they would get in a bank with less risk?[/quote]

    Then why do people buy land or shares, it is not for yield alone it is also for the hopefully appreciating value of the asset.

  • #82121
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
    Just Frank wrote:
    Hang on ? Just read yer post again and your a bloke :shock:Does yer wife know about this πŸ˜•
    Not only rude people but perverts as well πŸ™„

    Well, it was not me who said something about not going away.
    So there is nothing (yet) to hide from wife. :)))

  • #82201
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @jwc wrote:

    [quote)

    Then how would landlords make money? Surely not by simply accepting a return less than they would get in a bank with less risk?

    Then why do people buy land or shares, it is not for yield alone it is also for the hopefully appreciating value of the asset.[/quote]

    Do you think that now is a good time to buy property as it will appreciate in value? Where, over what timescale and by how much do you predict?

  • #84523
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
  • #84666
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant
  • #84529
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Looks like the BIG drops have started:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1028492/Recession-UK-The-238-000-flat-lost-70-value-years.html

    It hasn’t even started yet and we get stories like this.

  • #84670
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Looks like the BIG drops have started:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1028492/Recession-UK-The-238-000-flat-lost-70-value-years.html

    It hasn’t even started yet and we get stories like this.

  • #84559
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    where do you Spain in the boom-bust cycle compared to the Uk?

  • #84698
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    where do you Spain in the boom-bust cycle compared to the Uk?

  • #84761
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @jiminspain wrote:

    where do you Spain in the boom-bust cycle compared to the Uk?

    Who are you asking?

    Personally, I think both countries have started a descent into the unknown. It won’t be nice.

  • #84633
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @jiminspain wrote:

    where do you Spain in the boom-bust cycle compared to the Uk?

    Who are you asking?

    Personally, I think both countries have started a descent into the unknown. It won’t be nice.

  • #84762
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mike wrote:

    Personally, I think both countries have started a descent into the unknown.

    I agree Mike, no-one can predict where all this is going.

    As far as UK is concerned, there are new figures out today:

    The number of new mortgages approved for people buying a house dived by 20% in a month during May to reach a record low.

    Just 27,968 loans were approved for people moving, 56% fewer than in May 2007, and the lowest level since the British Bankers’ Association began collecting the data in 1997.

    The slide in value was equally dramatic, with loans for house purchase totalling just Β£4.3 billion, 57% less than 12 months ago.

    More and more, we are seeing phrases like “a record low” or “lowest level since records began”. It seems the UK at least is breaking through barriers never seen before and as you say, “it hasn’t even started yet”. Will we see the same records broken in Spain I wonder?

  • #84635
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mike wrote:

    Personally, I think both countries have started a descent into the unknown.

    I agree Mike, no-one can predict where all this is going.

    As far as UK is concerned, there are new figures out today:

    The number of new mortgages approved for people buying a house dived by 20% in a month during May to reach a record low.

    Just 27,968 loans were approved for people moving, 56% fewer than in May 2007, and the lowest level since the British Bankers’ Association began collecting the data in 1997.

    The slide in value was equally dramatic, with loans for house purchase totalling just Β£4.3 billion, 57% less than 12 months ago.

    More and more, we are seeing phrases like “a record low” or “lowest level since records began”. It seems the UK at least is breaking through barriers never seen before and as you say, “it hasn’t even started yet”. Will we see the same records broken in Spain I wonder?

  • #84763
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    Nearly everyday the news seems to get worse
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/24/bcnhouse124.xml

    God only knows whats going to happen to the Spanish economy.

  • #84637
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    Nearly everyday the news seems to get worse
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/24/bcnhouse124.xml

    God only knows whats going to happen to the Spanish economy.

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