[angie]

This article outlines 22 points to consider regarding potential Great Depression heading Spain’s way and it’s knock-on effect to World economies.

http://www.infowars.com/22-signs-that-the-collapsing-spanish-economy-is-heading-into-a-great-depression/

Is this just a matter of time, or will it, can it be averted? Originally written at end April 2012, but still relevant! 🙄

[Anonymous]

Alex jones of infowars has a belief in many many conspiracy theories, many of which are crackpot and not worthy of mention, although when it comes to talking about the economic situation in Spain and America he is correct.

[angie]

I don’t think he is the founder of the article, it is mentioned on lots of other websites too 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

and the Spanish stock market has been declining rapidly.

I got as far as that bit, before I burst out laughing. The Spanish Ibex is actually up nearly 30% since July – it may sink again, but why was this Jones character trying to put it forward as an indicator?

But Angie, you do seem convinced that things in Spain, bad as they are, are going to get a lot worse. If you really believe that, you can make a fortune on the stock markets, by hedging all Spanish stocks in sight. Inditex or Mango? Telefonica? All those construction firms like Acciona or Ferrovial? Or perhaps the commercial banks like BBVA or Santander? Arrange to sell their shares for 70% in 6 months time – you’ll make a fortune if their value has dropped to 10 or 20%! It’s not for all of us, but you seem so sure it’s all going to crash in value – you can make millions!

[katy]

Marcos your comments show you know nothing about stockmarkets…you are sooo naive.

[Anonymous]

Stock markets always go up when governments starts injecting resources into the economy but it’s not really a “real” upturn. As soon as the injections stop it will fall down again.

[angie]

Nessy, I admire your unfounded eternal optimism for Spain’s future, Banks, property market, employment figures which you recently talked up (the slight fall purely because of holiday season, then rose again), whilst the slow but mighty train crash occurs. I don’t post these articles, just bring them to your attention in case you’ve missed the economists’ views on things who you appear to disagree with.

You also dish the UK property market which is doing considerably better than the Spanish equivalent despite lack of lending going on, whilst wanting your cake and eat it. You say prices are falling in the UK which will affect an inheritance, yet you’ve previously said price falls in Spain will benefit you personally if and when you make your momentous leap of faith to Spain.

I have no desire to invest in the Stock markets (even though I once worked in the City), which are so often manipulated and even rigged (like some property markets) and other markets. Have you looked at how indebted large Spanish Corporations are, how the indebted Banks are desperately propping them up too? It’s a ticking time bomb waiting to go off.

Ardun and katy talk sense on stock markets, your knowledge appears centred around computers, you are not a stockbroker nor are you a property expert, my knowledge and money has been made mainly from UK property (yes, Nessy, our properties) There are bargains with profit potential in the South of England even now, I don’t need to buy up North which you talk of doing 😆

Many people, me included do think things in Spain will get worse, it’s all on-line for you to see, if you open your eyes, but pleeeeeeeeeeeeease put your money where you want and convince us , you’ve been saying the same things for ages without commitment yet, why are you waiting? 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

Nessy, I admire your unfounded eternal optimism for Spain’s future, Banks, property market, employment figures which you recently talked up (the slight fall purely because of holiday season, then rose again), whilst the slow but mighty train crash occurs. I don’t post these articles, just bring them to your attention in case you’ve missed the economists’ views on things who you appear to disagree with.

You also dish the UK property market which is doing considerably better than the Spanish equivalent despite lack of lending going on, whilst wanting your cake and eat it. You say prices are falling in the UK which will affect an inheritance, yet you’ve previously said price falls in Spain will benefit you personally if and when you make your momentous leap of faith to Spain.

I have no desire to invest in the Stock markets (even though I once worked in the City), which are so often manipulated and even rigged (like some property markets) and other markets. Have you looked at how indebted large Spanish Corporations are, how the indebted Banks are desperately propping them up too? It’s a ticking time bomb waiting to go off.

Ardun and katy talk sense on stock markets, your knowledge appears centred around computers, you are not a stockbroker nor are you a property expert, my knowledge and money has been made mainly from UK property (yes, Nessy, our properties) There are bargains with profit potential in the South of England even now, I don’t need to buy up North which you talk of doing 😆

Many people, me included do think things in Spain will get worse, it’s all on-line for you to see, if you open your eyes, but pleeeeeeeeeeeeease put your money where you want and convince us , you’ve been saying the same things for ages without commitment yet, why are you waiting? 🙄

I’d take any notice of your “opinion” on Spain, if you’d shown any aptitude for even learning the language. You really think Inditex are a ticking time bomb? Do some research before lazily writing off all Spanish companies.

One thing I am certain of, is that within 2 years Telefonica shares will soar, so I shall be investing in batches over the coming months. They are around 10 Euros 50 or so a share now. If they are not worth at least 18 Euros by July 2014, you will be able to expose my mistaken opinion here. But I’m fairly sure that I’ll be the one laughing, and you and Katy will be scraping for excuses…

[angie]

Nessy, you want to keep pushing Spanish Companies and shares on me and others, they are of no interest to me other than there is plenty of anecdotal evidence of the huge indebtedness of major Spanish Corporations, Spanish Banks, Spanish Regions and the Spanish Government. I no longer buy stocks and shares but prefer other investments thank you.

I don’t want to see you rush headlong into some investment you might regret due to lack of due diligence and information on this forums page 🙄 I’d take more notice of you if you understood property matters more!

BTW Probably don’t need to learn the language now after all, many Brits didn’t either during the ‘boom’ and became victims of contractual disputes due to the English translation of such just did not hold up 😉

[angie]

Thanks mg I have not included ‘all companies’ just the general consensus that major Spanish Corporations are being propped up by Spanish Banks lest they fail bringing more pressure on the hugely debt laden Banks 🙄 However the future is riddled with more problems, and Spain’s problems if something major occurs will impact on World economies big time 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@mgspain wrote:

despite me being bearish on the IBEX there will still be value to be had in some companies at todays prices. I am also about to take a long term position in Telefonica.

Interesting – I feel there will be the odd slide on the share price this winter with Telefonica (well I hope so as it will enable good buying opportunities), but there are so many new markets they are getting into, I feel they are in a similar position to Apple in 96/7. But I don’t want anyone to listen to my advice, it’s my money to win or lose on their shares… and of course if they do flop in 2014 the readers of this forum will be able to make their own judgements! 8)
Another interesting article this week on Telefonica, and their foray into “big data”. I wonder if a separate thread would be appropriate here? I suspect not, it’s a property forum not an investment forum

http://www.eurocomms.com/features/analysis/8593-telefonica-breaks-cover-as-first-big-data-telco-

[angie]

The IMF have said that the Capital Flight from Spain reached 296 billion euros in the 12 months to June, it’s common knowledge that this is still growing and will be interesting to hear by how much in the 12 months to December. This is a staggering figure that’s been withdrawn from Spanish Banks by Corporates and Individuals because there is so much uncertainty.

Now Nouriel Roubini has said/predicted that he ‘believes Spain will lose market access by the year end and would need a huge Troika-approved bail-out that will ‘only buy them time’

None of which is conducive to safe Spanish investment for some while to come, and remember markets whether Stocks and Shares or Property Worldwide or in Spain are often manipulated or hyped to show otherwise 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

The IMF have said that the Capital Flight from Spain reached 296 billion euros in the 12 months to June, it’s common knowledge that this is still growing and will be interesting to hear by how much in the 12 months to December. This is a staggering figure that’s been withdrawn from Spanish Banks by Corporates and Individuals because there is so much uncertainty.

Now Nouriel Roubini has said/predicted that he ‘believes Spain will lose market access by the year end and would need a huge Troika-approved bail-out that will ‘only buy them time’

None of which is conducive to safe Spanish investment for some while to come, and remember markets whether Stocks and Shares or Property Worldwide or in Spain are often manipulated or hyped to show otherwise 🙄

That story from June/July (repeated with glee by many sites at the time) has been debunked – let’s face it, if it was true then things would be a lot lot worse…

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/09/27/1174391/behind-the-headline-spanish-deposits-edition/#comments

By now we hope that you’ve started to have a healthy scepticism of deposit flight from Spain, even given our last point. Why?
August figures from the Bank of Spain showed that deposits by households decreased by just 0.31 per cent.
As for corporations… they increased their desposits, by 2.31 per cent.
All of which is not to say that the situation in Spain shouldn’t worry you. Of course it should. But you are looking at the wrong metric.

Of course if you really believe this negative propaganda, (and i’ve said the same to J2) merely take a shorting position on a Spanish company over 3 months! You’re bound to make money – look the stock exchange is down today!!!

[angie]

Oh yeah let’s all deal on the Stock Exchange again, job done, we’re all millionaires like Nessy now 😛 BTW How much money have you now pumped in to the Ibex and Footsie lately? Now property I know a little more about 😉

Now back to the issues of ‘ Is Spain Heading into a Great Depression’? 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

Oh yeah let’s all deal on the Stock Exchange again, job done, we’re all millionaires like Nessy now 😛 BTW How much money have you now pumped in to the Ibex and Footsie lately? Now property I know a little more about 😉

Now back to the issues of ‘ Is Spain Heading into a Great Depression’? 🙄

The answer based on their growth in exports,is obviously no. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/spain-narrows-central-government-budget-deficit-to-4-39-.html

But it’s not just the exports bringing in the foreign cash, tourist spend is doing very well too

http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_36077.shtml

September was a record month with tourist spending up 13.4% on the same month last year thanks to the British and German markets.

Oh dear Angie, TravelLodge are totally ignoring your advice not to invest in Spain. They’re opening up 100 new hotels (either new developments or conversions). Quick tell them!
http://www.travelodge.es/expansion

[katy]

Tourist spending is up because things like petrol etc. have gone up 😆 There is a very critical article by a spaniard that queries the authorites methods of collating figures ie bums on seats and spending. One example is thousands pour into Málaga and Barcelona every week to catch the cruise ships. Most stay overnight only, sort of skews the figures. Strange you never read/find these articles when you are googling. The real tourist figures for 2012 will be apparent about March 2013 when not suprisingly the never match up with the hype put out the year before…we shall see.

Most spaniards are fed up of relying on tourism, expect you have read it on spanish fora…low wages, boom and bust, as can be seen by the crash after the end of the tourist season when over hundred thousand more people lost their jobs. The Spanish say they aren’t real jobs.

Here is one version but another was much stronger

http://www.hosteltur.com/112130_estadisticas-turismo-espanol-seran-transparentes-eficaces.html

[DBMarcos99]

@katy wrote:

Tourist spending is up because things like petrol etc. have gone up 😆 There is a very critical article by a spaniard that queries the authorites methods of collating figures ie bums on seats and spending. One example is thousands pour into Málaga and Barcelona every week to catch the cruise ships. Most stay overnight only, sort of skews the figures. Strange you never read/find these articles when you are googling. The real tourist figures for 2012 will be apparent about March 2013 when not suprisingly the never match up with the hype put out the year before…we shall see.

Most spaniards are fed up of relying on tourism, expect you have read it on spanish fora…low wages, boom and bust, as can be seen by the crash after the end of the tourist season when over hundred thousand more people lost their jobs. The Spanish say they aren’t real jobs.

Here is one version but another was much stronger

http://www.hosteltur.com/112130_estadisticas-turismo-espanol-seran-transparentes-eficaces.html

Well you know, I’ve flown into/out of several Spanish airports this year (and out of high season too) – Madrid, Valencia and Bilbao. On each occasion the flight was full, and other visitors have told me the same. I noticed the last time in Madrid that the flight gate for Ibiza had a big queue too, which surprised me. So I don’t think there is a big cover-up being undertaken!
Where you may have a point is that people are changing their holiday habits. Instead of a big two week holiday on the CDS, they are taking city breaks to Madrid or Barcelona, with perhaps a week near the beach (of course people will mix other European cities). This works out well for certain tourist indicators – almost everyone will bring back prezzies even if it’s the cheaper vino and baccy. Oh and pharmacy items too, I was asked by family members to bring back certain items that were both cheaper and better than those available over the counter in the UK. But it does mean some of the big beach destinations may be down for numbers, and of course internal numbers are down.
And yes you’re right that tourist jobs generally don’t pay well – part of the govt strategy is to promote lower paid jobs so as to encourage companies to move to Spain. The jobs are needed but on the whole they won’t be well paid.
Incidentally Katy, you’re on a fool’s mission using Google to source your rebuttals. Twitter is a far better tool and will give various links that are up -to -date instead of searching through a million google pages. Try @MatthewBennett (lives in Murcia and loves negative stories like you – well-informed too) @JoeHas (biz consultant in Madrid, also well-informed, but be careful he sometimes has positive stories) and @EconomistMeg (not always as smart as she thinks she is, but good from your pov for negative spain stories).
Hmmm, I suppose angie and katy will now accuse me of working on the Twitter sales team 😆

[angie]

Mark Nessfield, I don’t advise companies where to invest nor where to lose their money, I had to laugh when you said the cheap hotel chain Travelodge (one word) were now investing in Spain, low wages for workers no doubt and hardly salubrious standards.

Oh how I love good news 😆 But it’s a balance to report the rest of the news 🙄

[katy]

I don’t do twatter, arse book or blogs, don’t have the time or inclination. You can prove or disprove anything on t’internet.

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

Mark Nessfield, I don’t advise companies where to invest nor where to lose their money, I had to laugh when you said the cheap hotel chain Travelodge (one word) were now investing in Spain, low wages for workers no doubt and hardly salubrious standards.

Oh how I love good news 😆 But it’s a balance to report the rest of the news 🙄

Well you know the recent news that Ford is closing its Belgium plant and transferring production to its plant near Valenica in Almussafes (and yes, it’s not all good news as production of another model is being switched to central Europe)?
Apparently as a result of that, 4 multinationals (suppliers to Ford) are considering also moving to the Valencia area – (article in Spanish) http://www.lasprovincias.es/v/20121103/economia/cuatro-multinacionales-preparan-traslado-20121103.html
Well, as you point out Angie there is often a cloud to the silver lining. It was pointed out on the Spanish forum Burbuja, that the minimum wage in Valencia will be around 630 Euros as opposed to 1300 in Belgium (well I don’t recollect the exact figure but it was along those lines). Expect to see more companies invest in Spain to take advantage of lower costs – providing of course the govt manages to reduce their high emplyment taxes, which they may not. 🙄

[angie]

A little more balance here too:

9.86% of all loans held by Spanish Banks are bad loans which are not likely to be collected, hm I wonder how much that totals on top of the huge amounts of Capital Flights from Spanish Banks 😯

Can’t be doing with Twitter, Facebook etc takes too much time and reveals too much info on the poster katie, like Nessy, people end up leaving their profiles and details, they can be a dangerous thing, and not to be recommended by SIS, who constantly monitor such areas 😉

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

Can’t be doing with Twitter, Facebook etc takes too much time and reveals too much info on the poster katie, like Nessy, people end up leaving their profiles and details, they can be a dangerous thing, and not to be recommended by SIS, who constantly monitor such areas 😉

Well if people like you didn’t stalk so much 😆

[angie]

Never mind Nessy but, you do look as I would have imagined had I been profiling your good self: 😆 😆

You’ll enjoy this read though about ‘A Great Depression Coming to Spain’ but first please note the author’s comments that Spain’s Hotel Sector is losing most jobs so Travelodge’s low pay for forthcoming expansion most welcome, and, ‘since June 2007 Spain has lost 230,881 registered Companies’ so not too bad really is it? 😆

http://www.periodistas-es.org/economia/economia-en-espana-weekly-report-de-per-svensson-2012-10-19

[Anonymous]

Travelodge may be clever people with flight prices rising making it cheaper for families to drive down if they get the positioning of there places right it could be a winner for them. It is really what they do cheap stop over rooms and cheap food just what people will want.They are not in the hotel business of providing a high standard of room and food at top prices.

[katy]

so….did anyone buy Telefonica shares 😮

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/telecoms/10043561/O2-owner-Telefonica-suffers-in-Spanish-slump.html

[DBMarcos99]

@mgspain wrote:

quote from “katy”so….did anyone buy Telefonica shares 😮

Yes, at 9.90, currently at 11.14, I haven’t read the article (no time) will check later.

You couldn’t make it up!

[DBMarcos99]

Despite a fall in revenues, Telefonica net profits up 20.6 per cent

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/05/08/inenglish/1368021724_522268.html

But the real area they will exploit in future will be in M2M. Some indications here by the firm themselves as to where they’re headed https://m2m.telefonica.com/m2m-media/m2m-blog/item/510-m2m-evolution-conference/

[DBMarcos99]

@mgspain wrote:

@DBMarcos99 wrote:

@mgspain wrote:

quote from “katy”so….did anyone buy Telefonica shares 😮

Yes, at 9.90, currently at 11.14, I haven’t read the article (no time) will check later.

You couldn’t make it up!

I’ll set a stop/loss at 10.10, everything is toppy at the minute. Sell in May as they say. If it doesn’t break the stop I’m keeping it.

To be fair, that seems sensible given it only takes a small demo or blog entry nowadays for the media to whip up an artificial panic. And we’re still waiting to see how Syria pans out.. ❓

[Author]

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