The British pound is going up and down against the euro entirely on the strength of the latest opinion polls in the so-called Brexit referendum. In the week gone by the pound was up on polls suggesting that last week’s panic over a Brexit result might have been overdone. A currency exchange specialist from TorFX explains.
We’re now less than two weeks until the UK decides whether we stay as part of the EU or we leave. The market is as undecided in direction as a great majority of the voting public and picking apart the erratic nature of the trend is very difficult. We’ve seen the market earlier this week touch €1.25 before coming back up to around €1.28, this from €1.30 plus rates that were available at the end of May.
Fears of a prolonged recession and hugely damaging effect to the UK’s economy in the event of a Brexit have been played upon from those within the stay camp this week. By voting to leave it seems that the pound would suffer terrible losses and longer term uncertainty. Despite this the latest opinion polls by YouGov last weekend suggested that the leave campaign had taken a 4-5% lead against the stay camp. Sterling fell with this news and may well remain under continued pressure between now and the 23rd June, relief only becoming a factor if and when the vote to stay is the result.
David Cameron was quoted as saying, “It is time for Vote Leave to come clean about their economic plan for Britain outside Europe, by refusing to set out their vision they are being undemocratic and reckless”. He added that a Brexit would “put a bomb under our economy”. Hard to disagree with the line of questioning from the Prime Minister, but it’s the emotive subject of immigration that seems to garner the leave camp the most support.
The tug of war between the two sides will continue of course. Those of you looking for some clarification regarding your own position in the market are urged to get in touch and discuss timings, and expectations of your money. It would appear that waiting for the referendum result with the hope that the pound to strengthen would not be a good thing for you, so looking to protect at least some of your requirement would make sense.