UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

The latest polls, betting odds, and pound-euro exchange rate suggesting which way the vote might go in the UK’s referendum on EU membership on the 23rd June.

In the week gone by most of the indicators pointed towards a remain vote pulling ahead. The vote is important for anyone with an interest in Spanish property, as I explain here: UK EU-referendum implications for Spanish property market

LATEST OPINION POLLS

On the 24th a YouGov poll put both camps neck and neck, and on the 25th a BMG Research poll put the out camp a nose ahead with 45%, compared to 44% for remain.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

LATEST BETTING ODDS

The latest betting odds from Betfair show the remain camp gaining ground as the odds-on favourite falling from 1.22 to 1.14, compared to an increase from 4.00 to 5.00 for a Brexit vote. So the bookies think a remain vote is ever more likely.

brexit-indicators-odds-27-may-16

LATEST EUR/GBP EXCHANGE RATE

The pound was lifted by opinion polls showing the remain vote ahead on the 24th, and has hovered around 1.31€/£ since then. So the money market ended the week more positive about a remain vote.

foreign exchange for spanish property

EUR/GBP

LATEST ENDORSEMENTS

  • The G7 group of leading industrialised nations has said that a Brexit would pose a “serious threat to global growth” thereby endorsing a remain vote.
  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said that a Brexit could mean an extra two years of austerity measures for the UK.
  • David Cameron denies he is a “closet Brexiteer” insisting he is “passionate” about staying in the EU (and Boris Johnson told him it was “not too late” to join the Leave campaign, whilst Farage called him a ‘Eurofanatic’).
  • Abba’s Björn Ulvaeus is very worried about a Brexit, and would be gutted if the UK walked out. Sounds like a Brexit would leave him with a ‘Hole in his soul’ (sorry, I couldn’t resist).

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