The latest polls, betting odds, and pound-euro exchange rate suggesting which way the vote might go in the UK’s referendum on EU membership on the 23rd June.
The UK’s referendum on continued EU membership could have a big impact on the Spanish property market, as I recently explained in this article: UK EU-referendum implications for Spanish property market.
The result will obviously be important to Britons in Spain, but it also affects everyone else with an interest in property on the Spanish coast and islands, where the British tend to be the biggest group of foreign owners, buyers, and vendors.
So leading up to the referendum on the 23rd June I’ll publish regular updates on the latest indicators suggesting which way the vote might go: Opinion polls, betting odds, the EUR/GBP exchange rate (the pound goes down as the likelihood of a Brexit increases), plus celebrity endorsements of note.
For what it’s worth, I still think the British will vote to remain in the EU, preferring the devil they know to the one they don’t.
LATEST OPINION POLLS
For the last week or so the polls have been neck and neck, but in the latest ICM poll on the 3rd of May, the leave camp were a nose ahead with 45% voting intention, compared to 44% for the remain camp (and 11% don’t know).
LATEST BETTING ODDS
The latest betting odds from Betfair show the remain camp gaining ground as the odds-on favourite falling to 1.3, compared to 3.25 for a Brexit vote. So the bookies think a remain vote is highly likely, and getting more so.
LATEST EUR/GBP EXCHANGE RATE
The pound has been strengthening against the Euro, suggesting the money markets see a remain vote as more likely.
LATEST CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS
In favour of remaining: President Barack Obama
In favour of leaving: Donald Trump, presumptive Republican White House candidate