BBVA: Recovery to consolidate in 2016

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Both the property division and research department of BBVA – Spain’s second largest bank – are optimistic about the outlook for the Spanish property market in 2016.

BBVA Research and Anida – the bank’s property division – have recently published reports forecasting stability for the overall market, and growth in some segments during 2016.

All the key market metrics are already showing an improvement, with sales and mortgage lending up across the board, and house prices rising in a number of cities, they say.

Home sales were up 9.5% in the year to August, and up 8.7% in September, according to the notaries. “This dynamism in sales is also continuing in the autumn months,” say Anida. “2015 will go down in history as the year the real estate sector stabilised.”

Anida report strong sales at their new developments. They claim to have already delivered 320 homes in Madrid, and are bringing another two projects to market at the start of 2016.

“The change in trend in the sector is clear, and these figures confirm the idea that the present and future of the sector already enjoys more positive notes, with stability being the protagonist of the new period,” they explain.

END OF RECESSION

BBVA Research echoes this optimism in its latest report. They forecast the year will close with sales up 10%, to 400,000 homes sold, and that the sector will “leave behind the recession” in 2016, and “consolidate its growth.”

They see a “significant improvement in demand in a context of rising credit and price stabilisation.”

Furthermore, the acute shortage of new home construction means that the excess new homes inventory is undergoing a “significant reduction,” and is disappearing altogether in the most dynamic local markets.

“In 2015, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, residential construction will start to contribute to GDP growth,” they explain, as building activity starts to pick up.

BBVA Research expect house prices to stabilise, then slowly recover in the new cycle, though more slowly than in previous cycles.

New housing will recover faster, they predict. “Whilst the adjustment has been more intense in the resale segment, the recovery has begun faster in the new homes market.”

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