BBVA forecast 5pc increase in residential investment next year

Spain’s second-largest bank forecasts the first rise in residential investment for seven years.

bbva-logoThe research department of BBVA – Spain’s second-largest bank – forecast that residential investment will fall by 3.4pc this year, but then rise by 5pc in 2015. If so, that would represent the first increase after seven years of consecutive falls.

Spanish residential investment fell 8.4pc last year, so the forecast decline of 3.4pc this year reflects BBVA’s belief that the Spanish property crash is drawing to a close. They expect the sector to return to growth in 2015.

However, the housing sector growth story in 2015 will only materialise, say BBVA, if employment starts rising and interest rates stay low and stable, as they are expected to.

Increasing foreign demand for Spanish property, up 35pc last year, should also help lift the rate of residential investment into positive territory for the first time in seven years.

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About Mark Stücklin

Mark Stücklin is a Barcelona-based property market analyst and consultant, and author of the 'Spanish Property Doctor' column in the Sunday Times (2005 - 2008). He can be reached by email on ms@spanishpropertyinsight.com.