Spanish house prices are still falling, but if you try to time the bottom, you may not get what you want, warns the notoriously bearish property market expert Fernando Rodriguez y Rodriquez de Acuña.
It’s a fair point, which he illustrated with the idea of waiting to the end of the sales to get the cheapest prices an interview with Idealista News (Idealista.com is one of Spain’s biggest property portals).
“Property is a unique asset, and if you want to live in a certain area you can wait for house prices to fall further, as they will continue falling in many parts of Spain. But nobody can guarantee you that you will get that house you have set your sights on tomorrow. When you wait until the last day of the sales to buy something cheaper, you normally don’t find what you are looking for.”
The interview doesn’t address it, but it begs the question “are we at the start, middle, or end of the sales?” Who knows, but I for one think we are closer to the end than the halfway mark. Even so, it could take several years before we see a recovery.
Despite pointing out that trying to time the bottom is likely to lead to disappointment, Rodriguez de Acuña, whose consultancy business RR. Acuña & Associates has published some of the bleakest reports on the outlook for the Spanish property market, was characteristically gloomy about the outlook. This year is the worst yet, with sales and prices down, and supply up. He expects prices to continue falling in many parts of Spain.
When will the wider housing market recover? When the economy starts creating jobs, says Rodriguez de Acuña. Without jobs there is no demand for housing, whatever the price.