Bank bailout auditors expect Spanish house prices to fall another 10pc

The auditors hired to quantify the amount of money Spain will need to bail out its banks estimate that Spanish house prices will fall another 10pc to the end of 2014.

But in their worst-case scenario, the consultancy firms Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman say prices could fall another 25pc to the end of 2014, and the Madrid stock exchange more than 50pc (see table below).

Either way these numbers are based on official figures so as usual they need to be taken with a big pinch of salt. As regular readers know, house prices have already fallen much further than official figures would have us believe.

Comments

comments

5 thoughts on “Bank bailout auditors expect Spanish house prices to fall another 10pc”

  1. jeannie lumb

    Property prices in Spain have fallen significantly over recent years and it may well be the case that they will continue to fall further. This situation is now further exacerbated by the worsening overall economic position of Spain. However, for lifestyle buyers still looking to purchase, in this still wonderful country, there’s a judgement call to be made. At La Luz Property we’re seeing some buyers waiting… and waiting…. and waiting for the bottom of the market. These same purchasers could be enjoying all the things they’re choosing a home in Spain for – sunshine, lifestyle, culture etc Sometimes a line needs to be drawn and decisions made on factors other than monetary price alone – I’d say that the real price isn’t only about the money you pay, for something you really want….as the sometimes grumpy but always fabulous Van Morrison reminds us ‘precious time is slipping away’….

  2. Ian Nicholson

    Whatever way you look at Spanish house prices they are still falling and may hit bottom around 2014/15. Being a potential buyer, wait out still look good

  3. Steve A

    Yes, I too would say 2014/15 will probably see the bottom – at 25% less than today. Just above half the peak price of 07/08, but still 50% higher than in mid-2000. Say E1200 psm on the coast, the same price as late 2002 or early 2003.

  4. Steve A

    And according to UK Channel 4 on May 29th – “Research by the boutique investment house Variant Perception suggests that house prices in Spain will fall as far as 50 per cent below their peak values”. I can’t find the original document on the Variant website, but it seems to tally with my preception.

  5. Chris Nation

    Jeannie Lumb is right when it comes to a unique property. If someone has very particular requirements and finds something that ticks the boxes, there’s no point delaying.

    Although I have a dictum that there is always another screw in the tin to match the one I have found, when it comes to property, the time & effort to find the other property that also matches your wish list if you miss the first one would likely far outweigh the saving you may have made by waiting.

    For ‘standard issue’ holiday property, I think it’s worth waiting. The tin is overflowing with those.

Leave a Reply

Profile photo of Mark Stücklin

About Mark Stücklin

Mark Stücklin is a Barcelona-based property market analyst and consultant, and author of the 'Spanish Property Doctor' column in the Sunday Times (2005 - 2008). He can be reached by email on ms@spanishpropertyinsight.com.